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> 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevat

> 1. There are claims that federal spending is out of control. How do you square that with the fact that spending as a percentage of GDP is only slightly elevated compared to the historical average going back to at least the 1970s, with the main deviation in the past few years coming from the after-effects of the pandemic? [1] Government expenditure as a proportion of GDP has been rising steadily for a century and is now approaching 40%. From IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA. The recent trend is shaky due to Covid, housing crash, maybe dot com crash, etc., but it looks like it's probably still trending upward. I've actually heard claims of the opposite -- that government has been under persistent and increasing attack since the 70s (or alternatively, since Reagan). I just can't see how the numbers square with that.

crazygringo 2y ago
> Government expenditure as a proportion of GDP has been rising steadily for a century and is now approaching 40% No it hasn't. It rose until about 1980 (mostly until 1970), and it's been about the same for the past 45 years. And yes, it rose 1925-1980 as we built the modern social services state. With social security, Medicaid, Medicare, and so forth. This was a worldwide phenomenon too, not just the US. People asked for more from their governments. This is a good thing. It does not look like it's currently trending upward, from your own data.
- starspangled 2y ago
  > No it hasn't. It rose until about 1980 (mostly until 1970), and it's been about the same for the past 45 years. Yes it has. In 1980 it was 34.25%, in 2022 it was 36.25%. > And yes, it rose 1925-1980 as we built the modern social services state. With social security, Medicaid, Medicare, and so forth. US government spending on healthcare is about as most other developed countries yet they are able to provide universal or similar healthcare access. Americans spend that amount again privately on healthcare, and the result is worse outcomes in many objective measures of public health. Just one example since healthcare is one of the biggest expenditures. This is not a good thing. The idea that "some government good" = "more government better" or "less government worse" is just not a sound argument. At all. > This was a worldwide phenomenon too, not just the US. People asked for more from their governments. This is a good thing. Not many Americans I know of asked to pay universal healthcare tier costs without getting universal healthcare. Not many asked to pay for forever-wars and interventions and meddling all over the globe. > It does not look like it's currently trending upward, from your own data. It does to me. The linear trend plotted from 1980 to 2022 does have it increasing too.
  - stouset 2y ago
    > Yes it has. In 1980 it was 34.25%, in 2022 it was 36.25%. Honest question, do you expect people to take your position seriously when this is the stat you’re putting up in defense of your argument?
    - starspangled 2y ago
      Yes. What would you put up in the defense of an argument that says it has not risen?
      - stouset 2y ago
        2% in 45 years is a completely meaningless amount. You are technically and pedantically correct, but in the context of the actual conversation being had it is so little as to be irrelevant.
        starspangled 2y ago
        Honest question, do expect people to actually believe you're a serious person interested in rational debate with that kind of response? What Trump / DOGE has proposed or claimed to have cut amounts to far less than $500 billion / year from the budget. Like 1/10th that amount. Yet people are seriously concerned about those cuts. Clearly it's not a reasonable amount, as you would understand if you had any idea of the context of this conversation.
        stouset 2y ago
        What DOGE has claimed to have cut is a similarly meaningless amount (and likely significantly overinflated), and what's worse, the value we were getting from those expenditures likely greatly exceeds what we were paying for them. $500bn/yr would be about 15% of the annual budget. That number doesn't even pass a basic sniff test.
        starspangled 2y ago

crazygringo 2y ago

> Government expenditure as a proportion of GDP has been rising steadily for a century and is now approaching 40% No it hasn't. It rose until about 1980 (mostly until 1970), and it's been about the same for the past 45 years. And yes, it rose 1925-1980 as we built the modern social services state. With social security, Medicaid, Medicare, and so forth. This was a worldwide phenomenon too, not just the US. People asked for more from their governments. This is a good thing. It does not look like it's currently trending upward, from your own data.

starspangled 2y ago
> No it hasn't. It rose until about 1980 (mostly until 1970), and it's been about the same for the past 45 years. Yes it has. In 1980 it was 34.25%, in 2022 it was 36.25%. > And yes, it rose 1925-1980 as we built the modern social services state. With social security, Medicaid, Medicare, and so forth. US government spending on healthcare is about as most other developed countries yet they are able to provide universal or similar healthcare access. Americans spend that amount again privately on healthcare, and the result is worse outcomes in many objective measures of public health. Just one example since healthcare is one of the biggest expenditures. This is not a good thing. The idea that "some government good" = "more government better" or "less government worse" is just not a sound argument. At all. > This was a worldwide phenomenon too, not just the US. People asked for more from their governments. This is a good thing. Not many Americans I know of asked to pay universal healthcare tier costs without getting universal healthcare. Not many asked to pay for forever-wars and interventions and meddling all over the globe. > It does not look like it's currently trending upward, from your own data. It does to me. The linear trend plotted from 1980 to 2022 does have it increasing too.
- stouset 2y ago
  > Yes it has. In 1980 it was 34.25%, in 2022 it was 36.25%. Honest question, do you expect people to take your position seriously when this is the stat you’re putting up in defense of your argument?
  - starspangled 2y ago
    Yes. What would you put up in the defense of an argument that says it has not risen?
    - stouset 2y ago
      2% in 45 years is a completely meaningless amount. You are technically and pedantically correct, but in the context of the actual conversation being had it is so little as to be irrelevant.
      - starspangled 2y ago
        Honest question, do expect people to actually believe you're a serious person interested in rational debate with that kind of response? What Trump / DOGE has proposed or claimed to have cut amounts to far less than $500 billion / year from the budget. Like 1/10th that amount. Yet people are seriously concerned about those cuts. Clearly it's not a reasonable amount, as you would understand if you had any idea of the context of this conversation.
        stouset 2y ago
        What DOGE has claimed to have cut is a similarly meaningless amount (and likely significantly overinflated), and what's worse, the value we were getting from those expenditures likely greatly exceeds what we were paying for them. $500bn/yr would be about 15% of the annual budget. That number doesn't even pass a basic sniff test.
        starspangled 2y ago