3 ms·

Triple product (efficiency ) has increased faster than moors law for the last 50 years. Still people make jokes about fusion research, some things just take ti

Triple product (efficiency ) has increased faster than moors law for the last 50 years. Still people make jokes about fusion research, some things just take time. I recommend this excellent review of the even more excellent book „The future of fusion energy“ https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-future-of-fusion https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/your-book-review-the-future...

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Triple product (efficiency ) has increased faster than moors law for the last 50 years Fusion research progress is underappreciated. But Moore's Law is for an existing industry. Prior to that, it took 10 ^ 6+ improvements in various technologies to make computing possible.
- Retric 2y ago
  Not sure what you mean by that. There was a bunch of computing technology long before photolithography or even transistors. And mores law was coined in 1965 when individual chips had far less than 10^6 transistors while the first one was made by hand.
  - darkhorse222 2y ago
    Indeed, I often think if I were transported to the past I would use rivers and dams to make logic gates.
    - tombert 2y ago
      Similarly, I would like to think that if I had been born a hundred years earlier, I would have invented something like MONIAC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Machine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Machine
    - jjk166 2y ago
      If you were transported to the past with the knowledge you currently possess as a result of the work already done, sure. Developing it from scratch is a whole other matter.
- throwawaymaths 2y ago
  Moore's law is self propagating: improvements in compute beget improvements in compute by improving the computers used to design compute devices. fusion, while in an impressive bootstrapping phase, does not get that acceleration until commercial break-even.
  - jjk166 2y ago
    Untrue on both counts. Moore's law is not due to improved computing power in the design process, it's due to an incredibly long series of process improvements which become easier to develop because of the increased understanding of the problems they are seeking to solve. Likewise advancements in fusion beget advancements in fusion by increasing understanding of the challenges faced.
    - alanbernstein 2y ago
      > improvements which become easier to develop because of the increased understanding of the problems they are seeking to solve. Surely this is aided by ever more sophisticated computational models? Maybe not the dominant factor in Moore's law, but maybe not negligible?
      - fc417fc802 2y ago
        Probably not. Materials science research is much more dependent on analog electronics, specifically measuring voltage signals, than on digital electronics. Modern computers are certainly a nice quality of life improvement for researchers though. That said, commercial production lines might be a different story. Now I'm wondering what the minimum viable computer system would be to implement the firmware for ASMLs machines, for example. Probably more than vacuum tubes but I'm guessing you could pull it off with an old 8 bit chip. That's just a guess though.
      - jjk166 2y ago
        Yeah, it's aided by better computational models, but not appreciably by having those models run on chips with smaller feature sizes. If a time traveler from the future gave everyone at ASML and TSMC computers that ran 4 times as quickly so they could run their models faster, but no one could take a look at how they worked or were made, it wouldn't have any noticeable effect.
markhahn 2y ago
moore's law is just the observation that chips are 2d: linear shrinks produce exponential benefit. I can't see anything like a linear/square relation in fusion reactor design (even accepting that ML's premise of shrinks being linear in time is not a law, just something that sometimes happened, and sometimes didn't...)

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> Triple product (efficiency ) has increased faster than moors law for the last 50 years Fusion research progress is underappreciated. But Moore's Law is for an existing industry. Prior to that, it took 10 ^ 6+ improvements in various technologies to make computing possible.

Retric 2y ago
Not sure what you mean by that. There was a bunch of computing technology long before photolithography or even transistors. And mores law was coined in 1965 when individual chips had far less than 10^6 transistors while the first one was made by hand.
- darkhorse222 2y ago
  Indeed, I often think if I were transported to the past I would use rivers and dams to make logic gates.
  - tombert 2y ago
    Similarly, I would like to think that if I had been born a hundred years earlier, I would have invented something like MONIAC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Machine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_Machine
  - jjk166 2y ago
    If you were transported to the past with the knowledge you currently possess as a result of the work already done, sure. Developing it from scratch is a whole other matter.
throwawaymaths 2y ago
Moore's law is self propagating: improvements in compute beget improvements in compute by improving the computers used to design compute devices. fusion, while in an impressive bootstrapping phase, does not get that acceleration until commercial break-even.
- jjk166 2y ago
  Untrue on both counts. Moore's law is not due to improved computing power in the design process, it's due to an incredibly long series of process improvements which become easier to develop because of the increased understanding of the problems they are seeking to solve. Likewise advancements in fusion beget advancements in fusion by increasing understanding of the challenges faced.
  - alanbernstein 2y ago
    > improvements which become easier to develop because of the increased understanding of the problems they are seeking to solve. Surely this is aided by ever more sophisticated computational models? Maybe not the dominant factor in Moore's law, but maybe not negligible?
    - fc417fc802 2y ago
      Probably not. Materials science research is much more dependent on analog electronics, specifically measuring voltage signals, than on digital electronics. Modern computers are certainly a nice quality of life improvement for researchers though. That said, commercial production lines might be a different story. Now I'm wondering what the minimum viable computer system would be to implement the firmware for ASMLs machines, for example. Probably more than vacuum tubes but I'm guessing you could pull it off with an old 8 bit chip. That's just a guess though.
    - jjk166 2y ago
      Yeah, it's aided by better computational models, but not appreciably by having those models run on chips with smaller feature sizes. If a time traveler from the future gave everyone at ASML and TSMC computers that ran 4 times as quickly so they could run their models faster, but no one could take a look at how they worked or were made, it wouldn't have any noticeable effect.

markhahn 2y ago

moore's law is just the observation that chips are 2d: linear shrinks produce exponential benefit. I can't see anything like a linear/square relation in fusion reactor design (even accepting that ML's premise of shrinks being linear in time is not a law, just something that sometimes happened, and sometimes didn't...)