5 ms·

The problem isn't "solved." The problem is you have to deal with it in a way that most/everyone would be OK with and vote for. I don't think we can do that in

by robswc 2y ago

The problem isn't "solved." The problem is you have to deal with it in a way that most/everyone would be OK with and vote for. I don't think we can do that in the US. We could "solve" the problem like Singapore or China (some of these 'many countries'), and simply throw everyone in jail for petty crimes. In fact, IIRC Singapore is one of the safest places on earth. I'm sure SF (and California, and the country at large) would probably take issue with a sudden step up in policing.

sightbroke 2y ago
As far as I can tell, the bottom line is king in the US. So the way I figure, you spend money on imprisoning (though private prisons make more money and can sell non-violent labor). Or spend money on housing and social workers and maybe a good chunk of this individuals rejoin the workforce and pay taxes. Or you spend money on cleaning up after, paying for medical emergencies, and increased private security costs. The option selected is either the one that the invisible hand found to be the most efficient or a better option was not sold well enough.
- throwawaymaths 2y ago
  if you think prison privatization is the problem... you should see state run prisons. while studies show that private prisons are "statistically" worse (lots of problems with the statistics, e.g. commingling criminal incarceration contracts with migrant incarceration contracts), the difference is marginal, at best.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    The incentive structure is the bigger issue here, not necessarily prisoner treatment (though yes, we can address that too). A state wants to minimize prisons. A profit run prison wants to keep getting prisoners.
    - throwawaymaths 2y ago
      state run prisons and prison guard unions also have this problem. and these orgs are known to have successfully put legislative pressure on laws that will increase incarceration rates
- Aunche 2y ago
  If the bottom line were actually king, we'd have a VAT, LVT, functional public transit, and sensible zoning laws among other things. Hell, even a fully socialized healthcare system would be more economically efficient than the public-private Frankenstein we have today. A common meme on both sides of the political aisle is that public spending that they don't like is motivated by someone else's profit, but that's never the why the spending happens. I'd like the government to give me a million bucks to dig a hole in my backyard, but that's not going to happen unless if the voters agree to it.
reportingsjr 2y ago
> We could "solve" the problem like Singapore or China (some of these 'many countries'), and simply throw everyone in jail for petty crimes. This clearly isn’t true, as the US has a per capita prison population four to five times that of China & Singapore! We jail far, far more people than they do.
- robswc 2y ago
  It could simply be that more people in China and Singapore are afraid to commit crimes. Their prison sentences and punishments are much worse. In 2022, they executed 11 people, the US executed 18. The US has a ~50x larger population. I'm not even saying the solution is more/harsher policing. I'm saying it is a solution that seemingly works.
  - 11101010001100 2y ago
    This is speculation, the parent replied with statistics.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    It could also be that they didn't governmental distribute drugs to their population with the purpose of mass arresting for petty crimes. So half their criminal population aren't just in for smoking pit.
- carlosjobim 2y ago
  Why do you count "per capita" when it should be counted "per crime"? Per capita means nothing for this argument.
  - Aunche 2y ago
    You're right, but progressives treat crime statistics as dog whistles for racism, which to be fair isn't uncommon. However, you can make a very similar "woke" argument. Much of crime is caused by centuries of systemic racism that Singapore and China never experienced, so you can't do an apple to apple comparison between incarcerations per capita. Overall, Singapore and China are significantly more willing to sacrifice freedom in exchange for security. There is more surveillance and no trial by jury, for example.
atoav 2y ago
You are mentally on a wrong track there. If imprisonment solved your problem, it would already be solved. The US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world (see: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarce...). Fifth place versus Singapore on 105th. The US incarcerates 3.5 times more of it's population than Singapore. If you have the money to imprison the homeless you could use that very same money to just build more affordable housing and that would give you more in terms of results per dollar spent. But that doesn't jive well with the American idea of having to morally punish unwanted behavior, instead of just helping people. Jailing homeless people is like jailing people who break a leg: Nobody plans to break a leg, so jailing people who do won't reduce the number of people who do. The only thing criminalization of such involuntary traits achieves is to reduce visibility and pushing people to hide it.
- robswc 2y ago
  > The US incarcerates 3.5 times more of it's population than Singapore. And Singapore executes ~3.5 times more of it's population than the US. Singapore is a heavily policed state. They still cane people there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore There is a _huge_ difference between how crime is handled in the US and how it is handled in Singapore. > If you have the money to imprison the homeless you could use that very same money to just build more affordable housing and that would give you more in terms of results per dollar spent. I'm not talking about the homeless. The people I lived next to had homes (that were unfortunately adjacent to mine). They would constantly commit crime and face 0 repercussions for it. I knew of someone in the building that was on their 5th DUI somehow. They were still driving, still causing problems nearly every week.
  - BurningFrog 2y ago
    Caning is very cost effective! Costs almost nothing compared to prisons, and has a comparable deterrence effect.
  - johnnyanmac 2y ago
    We don't actually execute that many people in the US, so this was an instant fail on the sniff test: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singapore https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singap... 540 ish executions in 35 years. 50 executions last decade. I don't think these are the statistics that make me thing Singapore is a kill happy country. >m not talking about the homeless. The people I lived next to had homes (that were unfortunately adjacent to mine). They would constantly commit crime and face 0 Anecdotes are just that. I've been in a nice neighborhood. I don't think people are naturally evil.
Agentus 2y ago
You don’t have to even go to more authoritarian places to see the “solved” phenomenon. Many conservative states have harsher sentences or are more proactive in enforcement of petty crimes to “solve” undesirable/nonconformist behavior. Also solve is a funny word to describe dealing with people who ultimately dont want to conform to arbitrary restrictions on behavior. Humans naturally evolved in a hunter gathering setting, yet certain governing “civilizing” forces had the audacity to eliminate that as possible lifestyle, and then label people who defy that restriction on lifestyle choice as problemmatic.
- cheriot 2y ago
  I don't see a pattern of conservative states solving drugs or violent crime. https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/place-based-economic-conditions-and-the-geography-of-the-opioid-overdose-crisis https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/place-based-... https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/violent-crime-and-inequality https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/violent-crime-and-...
  - Agentus 2y ago
    yeah the pattern is indiscernible because i was talking about petty crimes and related behavior (specifically homelessness) that have a lower per capita rate. violence isnt petty and i assume many drugs offenses arent considered petty. a quick google has validating statistics, although i cant find sources better than business insider at the moment. homeless population per capita by state and homelessness criminalization by state.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  > Humans naturally evolved in a hunter gathering setting Frequently asserted, but not really well substantiated. Plenty of new (or previously) ignored archeological and anthropological evidence that humans moved back and forth fairly seamlessly between hunting, gathering and cultivating in many differents part of the world. You sound like the kind of person who would have somehow managed to read "The Dawn of Everything" by Graeber & Wengrow, but apparently either did not or for some reason disagree with one of their fundamental conclusions.
JimDabell 2y ago
> We could "solve" the problem like Singapore or China (some of these 'many countries'), and simply throw everyone in jail for petty crimes The incarceration rate of the USA is 541/100k: https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-states-america https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-states-america The incarceration rate of Singapore is 164/100k: https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/singapore https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/singapore The homelessness rate in the USA is 19.5/10k. The homelessness rate in Singapore is 1.9/10k. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_homeless_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_ho... Singapore doesn’t have a homelessness problem because they build as much public housing as possible, sell it to citizens at a massively subsidised rate, and follow up with schemes to rent to people who fall through the system for practically nothing. If you want to reduce homelessness, you need to build a large volume of housing. San Francisco is doing the exact opposite and getting the exact opposite results.
- robswc 2y ago
  Do the math on the execution rate. You do _not_ want to be a criminal in Singapore. You especially do not want to be a criminal involved with drugs (which is the highest % offense of prisoners in the US). > Singapore doesn’t have a homelessness problem because they build as much public housing as possible, sell it to citizens at a massively subsidised rate, and follow up with schemes to rent to people who fall through the system for practically nothing. How policed are these public housing projects? I wouldn't have a problem living near or even in a place like that if there weren't criminals running around. The problem I was referencing was the problem of trying to get the general populace to live with antisocial types. I don't think that can be "solved" in the US anytime soon. > If you want to reduce homelessness, you need to build a large volume of housing. San Francisco is doing the exact opposite and getting the exact opposite results. Sure. I just don't see that happening in the US without it turning into a dump. I didn't even live in a homeless shelter. I lived in an income restricted place. It was a magnet for criminals and non-criminals are punished for it.
  - JimDabell 2y ago
    > Do the math on the execution rate. You do _not_ want to be a criminal in Singapore. In 2023, Singapore executed 5 people, which is less than one in a million: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/policy-issues/policy/international/executions-around-the-world https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/policy-issues/policy/internatio... You basically have to bring drugs into the country to be executed. So as long as you don’t do that, this statistic doesn’t affect you at all. > How policed are these public housing projects? I wouldn't have a problem living near or even in a place like that if there weren't criminals running around. Three quarters of Singaporeans live in these places, and there is no significant police presence. There doesn’t have to be because the crime rate is so low. Criminals aren’t running around. > Sure. I just don't see that happening in the US without it turning into a dump. I didn't even live in a homeless shelter. I lived in an income restricted place. It was a magnet for criminals and non-criminals are punished for it. I think you read “public housing” and interpreted it as something like you have in America, with high crime and poverty. That’s a misinterpretation. This is the type of place most people live in Singapore. They are nice places to live, they are just massively subsidised by the government.

by robswc 2y ago

sightbroke 2y ago

As far as I can tell, the bottom line is king in the US. So the way I figure, you spend money on imprisoning (though private prisons make more money and can sell non-violent labor). Or spend money on housing and social workers and maybe a good chunk of this individuals rejoin the workforce and pay taxes. Or you spend money on cleaning up after, paying for medical emergencies, and increased private security costs. The option selected is either the one that the invisible hand found to be the most efficient or a better option was not sold well enough.

throwawaymaths 2y ago
if you think prison privatization is the problem... you should see state run prisons. while studies show that private prisons are "statistically" worse (lots of problems with the statistics, e.g. commingling criminal incarceration contracts with migrant incarceration contracts), the difference is marginal, at best.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  The incentive structure is the bigger issue here, not necessarily prisoner treatment (though yes, we can address that too). A state wants to minimize prisons. A profit run prison wants to keep getting prisoners.
  - throwawaymaths 2y ago
    state run prisons and prison guard unions also have this problem. and these orgs are known to have successfully put legislative pressure on laws that will increase incarceration rates
Aunche 2y ago
If the bottom line were actually king, we'd have a VAT, LVT, functional public transit, and sensible zoning laws among other things. Hell, even a fully socialized healthcare system would be more economically efficient than the public-private Frankenstein we have today. A common meme on both sides of the political aisle is that public spending that they don't like is motivated by someone else's profit, but that's never the why the spending happens. I'd like the government to give me a million bucks to dig a hole in my backyard, but that's not going to happen unless if the voters agree to it.

reportingsjr 2y ago

> We could "solve" the problem like Singapore or China (some of these 'many countries'), and simply throw everyone in jail for petty crimes. This clearly isn’t true, as the US has a per capita prison population four to five times that of China & Singapore! We jail far, far more people than they do.

robswc 2y ago
It could simply be that more people in China and Singapore are afraid to commit crimes. Their prison sentences and punishments are much worse. In 2022, they executed 11 people, the US executed 18. The US has a ~50x larger population. I'm not even saying the solution is more/harsher policing. I'm saying it is a solution that seemingly works.
- 11101010001100 2y ago
  This is speculation, the parent replied with statistics.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  It could also be that they didn't governmental distribute drugs to their population with the purpose of mass arresting for petty crimes. So half their criminal population aren't just in for smoking pit.
carlosjobim 2y ago
Why do you count "per capita" when it should be counted "per crime"? Per capita means nothing for this argument.
- Aunche 2y ago
  You're right, but progressives treat crime statistics as dog whistles for racism, which to be fair isn't uncommon. However, you can make a very similar "woke" argument. Much of crime is caused by centuries of systemic racism that Singapore and China never experienced, so you can't do an apple to apple comparison between incarcerations per capita. Overall, Singapore and China are significantly more willing to sacrifice freedom in exchange for security. There is more surveillance and no trial by jury, for example.

atoav 2y ago

You are mentally on a wrong track there. If imprisonment solved your problem, it would already be solved. The US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world (see: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarce...). Fifth place versus Singapore on 105th. The US incarcerates 3.5 times more of it's population than Singapore. If you have the money to imprison the homeless you could use that very same money to just build more affordable housing and that would give you more in terms of results per dollar spent. But that doesn't jive well with the American idea of having to morally punish unwanted behavior, instead of just helping people. Jailing homeless people is like jailing people who break a leg: Nobody plans to break a leg, so jailing people who do won't reduce the number of people who do. The only thing criminalization of such involuntary traits achieves is to reduce visibility and pushing people to hide it.

robswc 2y ago
> The US incarcerates 3.5 times more of it's population than Singapore. And Singapore executes ~3.5 times more of it's population than the US. Singapore is a heavily policed state. They still cane people there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore There is a _huge_ difference between how crime is handled in the US and how it is handled in Singapore. > If you have the money to imprison the homeless you could use that very same money to just build more affordable housing and that would give you more in terms of results per dollar spent. I'm not talking about the homeless. The people I lived next to had homes (that were unfortunately adjacent to mine). They would constantly commit crime and face 0 repercussions for it. I knew of someone in the building that was on their 5th DUI somehow. They were still driving, still causing problems nearly every week.
- BurningFrog 2y ago
  Caning is very cost effective! Costs almost nothing compared to prisons, and has a comparable deterrence effect.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  We don't actually execute that many people in the US, so this was an instant fail on the sniff test: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singapore https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Singap... 540 ish executions in 35 years. 50 executions last decade. I don't think these are the statistics that make me thing Singapore is a kill happy country. >m not talking about the homeless. The people I lived next to had homes (that were unfortunately adjacent to mine). They would constantly commit crime and face 0 Anecdotes are just that. I've been in a nice neighborhood. I don't think people are naturally evil.

Agentus 2y ago

You don’t have to even go to more authoritarian places to see the “solved” phenomenon. Many conservative states have harsher sentences or are more proactive in enforcement of petty crimes to “solve” undesirable/nonconformist behavior. Also solve is a funny word to describe dealing with people who ultimately dont want to conform to arbitrary restrictions on behavior. Humans naturally evolved in a hunter gathering setting, yet certain governing “civilizing” forces had the audacity to eliminate that as possible lifestyle, and then label people who defy that restriction on lifestyle choice as problemmatic.

cheriot 2y ago
I don't see a pattern of conservative states solving drugs or violent crime. https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/place-based-economic-conditions-and-the-geography-of-the-opioid-overdose-crisis https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/place-based-... https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/violent-crime-and-inequality https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/violent-crime-and-...
- Agentus 2y ago
  yeah the pattern is indiscernible because i was talking about petty crimes and related behavior (specifically homelessness) that have a lower per capita rate. violence isnt petty and i assume many drugs offenses arent considered petty. a quick google has validating statistics, although i cant find sources better than business insider at the moment. homeless population per capita by state and homelessness criminalization by state.
PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
> Humans naturally evolved in a hunter gathering setting Frequently asserted, but not really well substantiated. Plenty of new (or previously) ignored archeological and anthropological evidence that humans moved back and forth fairly seamlessly between hunting, gathering and cultivating in many differents part of the world. You sound like the kind of person who would have somehow managed to read "The Dawn of Everything" by Graeber & Wengrow, but apparently either did not or for some reason disagree with one of their fundamental conclusions.

JimDabell 2y ago

> We could "solve" the problem like Singapore or China (some of these 'many countries'), and simply throw everyone in jail for petty crimes The incarceration rate of the USA is 541/100k: https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-states-america https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-states-america The incarceration rate of Singapore is 164/100k: https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/singapore https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/singapore The homelessness rate in the USA is 19.5/10k. The homelessness rate in Singapore is 1.9/10k. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_homeless_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_ho... Singapore doesn’t have a homelessness problem because they build as much public housing as possible, sell it to citizens at a massively subsidised rate, and follow up with schemes to rent to people who fall through the system for practically nothing. If you want to reduce homelessness, you need to build a large volume of housing. San Francisco is doing the exact opposite and getting the exact opposite results.

robswc 2y ago
Do the math on the execution rate. You do _not_ want to be a criminal in Singapore. You especially do not want to be a criminal involved with drugs (which is the highest % offense of prisoners in the US). > Singapore doesn’t have a homelessness problem because they build as much public housing as possible, sell it to citizens at a massively subsidised rate, and follow up with schemes to rent to people who fall through the system for practically nothing. How policed are these public housing projects? I wouldn't have a problem living near or even in a place like that if there weren't criminals running around. The problem I was referencing was the problem of trying to get the general populace to live with antisocial types. I don't think that can be "solved" in the US anytime soon. > If you want to reduce homelessness, you need to build a large volume of housing. San Francisco is doing the exact opposite and getting the exact opposite results. Sure. I just don't see that happening in the US without it turning into a dump. I didn't even live in a homeless shelter. I lived in an income restricted place. It was a magnet for criminals and non-criminals are punished for it.
- JimDabell 2y ago
  > Do the math on the execution rate. You do _not_ want to be a criminal in Singapore. In 2023, Singapore executed 5 people, which is less than one in a million: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/policy-issues/policy/international/executions-around-the-world https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/policy-issues/policy/internatio... You basically have to bring drugs into the country to be executed. So as long as you don’t do that, this statistic doesn’t affect you at all. > How policed are these public housing projects? I wouldn't have a problem living near or even in a place like that if there weren't criminals running around. Three quarters of Singaporeans live in these places, and there is no significant police presence. There doesn’t have to be because the crime rate is so low. Criminals aren’t running around. > Sure. I just don't see that happening in the US without it turning into a dump. I didn't even live in a homeless shelter. I lived in an income restricted place. It was a magnet for criminals and non-criminals are punished for it. I think you read “public housing” and interpreted it as something like you have in America, with high crime and poverty. That’s a misinterpretation. This is the type of place most people live in Singapore. They are nice places to live, they are just massively subsidised by the government.