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If we take Twitter/X as an example of this process, my personal experience has been that it has been degraded to a spams and bot hell shortly after Musk took ov

by almog 2y ago

If we take Twitter/X as an example of this process, my personal experience has been that it has been degraded to a spams and bot hell shortly after Musk took over. But my personal experience isn't quantifiable, what is quantifiable is X valuation which, according to Fidelity, has been depreciating and back in Oct. 2024 was estimated at nearly 20% of the original acquisition price.

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
The Fidelity valuation is old news. All the most recent debt sales were either just below or just above 100% of the original price. Example article: https://www.afr.com/technology/banks-offload-8-8b-in-debt-linked-to-musk-s-twitter-takeover-20250206-p5la8o https://www.afr.com/technology/banks-offload-8-8b-in-debt-li...
- XorNot 2y ago
  Ah yes, sold Feb 15 2025[1]...right as the CEO took over running the US government and raided the US treasury department. I'm sure this is a completely above board sale that definitely does not represent a legal-if-you-don't-look-at-it way to bribe the de facto head of the US government / the expectation of massive corruption (ala: Tesla's stock price rising on the news Elon Musk was running DOGE - weird right? The CEO is apparently going to be too busy to run the company because he's now running the government so the stock price goes up...to be fair, technically that's not a bad bet) Because we know the new administration definitely wouldn't take bribes in the form of financial instruments[2]. Definitely no history of it[3]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-sell-down-more-x-debt-just-13bln-now-left-their-books-2025-02-14/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-sell-down-mor... [2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/trumps-meme-coin-made-nearly-100-million-trading-fees-small-traders-lost-money-2025-02-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/trumps-meme-coin-... [3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/trump-campaign-egypt-investigation/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/tru...
  - mlindner 2y ago
    If you invent reasons to dismiss what people say then there's nothing anyone can say to convince you otherwise.
    - ben_w 2y ago
      There's a gap between "no you can't see the dragon in my garage, he's invisible, intangible, emits no body heat, and has no gravitational field" and "here's some citations to back up my belief". Are the citations sufficient? Dunno. Just saying this isn't what you call it.
  - shkkmo 2y ago
    > a legal-if-you-don't-look-at-it way to bribe the de facto head of the US government / the expectation of massive corruption How does the sale of the debt help Elon Musk or Trump? They don't own that debt, they don't make money off that debt. Do you expect the fund managers to forgive the debt as a bribe? That would clearly be a bribe, but until that happens, it isn't and I don't think it is terribly likely. There are plenty of real things to be upset over, you don't need to make up imaginary ones. All that does is dilute the real concerns and make your opposition less effective.
    - XorNot 2y ago
      I'm saying when you see a lot of smoke coming from a house, the neighbours probably didn't just buy an industrial sized BBQ and suddenly decide to have a huge cook off after some kids threw a bottle through the window.
      - shkkmo 2y ago
        So you think a debt purchase is blindongly obvious example of bribery? Then it should be easy to explain how it is bribery.
        immibis 2y ago
- almog 2y ago
  While it shows investors aren't concerned about X ability to pay back its loan term, it isn't a proxy for valuation. Banks usually sell issued debt to investors soon after the debt is issued. In this case it took 2 years.

by almog 2y ago

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago

The Fidelity valuation is old news. All the most recent debt sales were either just below or just above 100% of the original price. Example article: https://www.afr.com/technology/banks-offload-8-8b-in-debt-linked-to-musk-s-twitter-takeover-20250206-p5la8o https://www.afr.com/technology/banks-offload-8-8b-in-debt-li...

XorNot 2y ago
Ah yes, sold Feb 15 2025[1]...right as the CEO took over running the US government and raided the US treasury department. I'm sure this is a completely above board sale that definitely does not represent a legal-if-you-don't-look-at-it way to bribe the de facto head of the US government / the expectation of massive corruption (ala: Tesla's stock price rising on the news Elon Musk was running DOGE - weird right? The CEO is apparently going to be too busy to run the company because he's now running the government so the stock price goes up...to be fair, technically that's not a bad bet) Because we know the new administration definitely wouldn't take bribes in the form of financial instruments[2]. Definitely no history of it[3]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-sell-down-more-x-debt-just-13bln-now-left-their-books-2025-02-14/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-sell-down-mor... [2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/trumps-meme-coin-made-nearly-100-million-trading-fees-small-traders-lost-money-2025-02-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/trumps-meme-coin-... [3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/trump-campaign-egypt-investigation/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/08/02/tru...
- mlindner 2y ago
  If you invent reasons to dismiss what people say then there's nothing anyone can say to convince you otherwise.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    There's a gap between "no you can't see the dragon in my garage, he's invisible, intangible, emits no body heat, and has no gravitational field" and "here's some citations to back up my belief". Are the citations sufficient? Dunno. Just saying this isn't what you call it.
- shkkmo 2y ago
  > a legal-if-you-don't-look-at-it way to bribe the de facto head of the US government / the expectation of massive corruption How does the sale of the debt help Elon Musk or Trump? They don't own that debt, they don't make money off that debt. Do you expect the fund managers to forgive the debt as a bribe? That would clearly be a bribe, but until that happens, it isn't and I don't think it is terribly likely. There are plenty of real things to be upset over, you don't need to make up imaginary ones. All that does is dilute the real concerns and make your opposition less effective.
  - XorNot 2y ago
    I'm saying when you see a lot of smoke coming from a house, the neighbours probably didn't just buy an industrial sized BBQ and suddenly decide to have a huge cook off after some kids threw a bottle through the window.
    - shkkmo 2y ago
      So you think a debt purchase is blindongly obvious example of bribery? Then it should be easy to explain how it is bribery.
      - immibis 2y ago
almog 2y ago
While it shows investors aren't concerned about X ability to pay back its loan term, it isn't a proxy for valuation. Banks usually sell issued debt to investors soon after the debt is issued. In this case it took 2 years.