4 ms·

I am sure we will reach 3 degrees, given what's going on in the world. Deniers will always come up with some arguments that this is somehow not real. The quest

I am sure we will reach 3 degrees, given what's going on in the world. Deniers will always come up with some arguments that this is somehow not real. The question is at what temperature we will see cliff edge like effects, i.e. stopping of Gulf stream and the like.

croes 2y ago
The deniers will admit it but then it’s because of Space lasers, Chemtrails, vaccines and weather engineering.
- quesera 2y ago
  "It's not happening" "OK maybe it's happening, but it's not a big deal" "OK maybe it's a big deal, but we didn't do it" "OK maybe we did some of it, but we can't fix it alone" "OK maybe we could do something but, that would put us at a disadvantage" "OK maybe we all need to do something, but how can we coordinate such a thing?" "OK maybe we could coordinate, but it would take 50 years to see any improvement" "OK it's too late, but at least some of us have made alternate plans for ourselves and our families" "OK I guess that's not how society and economy work, but how could we have known better?" ... Silly humans.
bognition 2y ago
Until the pain hits the wallet and stomach of the American middle class nothing is going to change. The ruling class and their media machine have people whipped into line and parroting back the talking points of the ultra wealthy. It’s going to take pain of a seismic level to break the hold on the minds that of the people.
- yread 2y ago
  I dont think India or China will close brand new coal power plants because US middle class has a wallet ache. We are fucked no matter what
  - lblume 2y ago
    China's exports (and by extension, carbon emissions) are driven by American and European demands for cheap products. Drastically decreasing industrial demand would lead to Asian carbon emissions shrinking by a large margin.
  - leosanchez 2y ago
    There is a huge push for rooftop solar in India.
  - rwyinuse 2y ago
    At least China is also doing some good things, like building massive amounts of solar energy, and exporting cheap electric vehicles all around the world. Meanwhile the regime in America is actively attacking climate science and denying the whole issue. Compared to Trump's administration the Chinese Communist party is quite okay from environmental perspective.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Compared to Trump's administration the Chinese Communist party is quite okay from environmental perspective. Yet the Chinese government is blocking the export of inputs for Battery and Solar technology to India [0], which incentivizes India to remain using coal and natural gas as a stopgap, as those are sourced from domestic and close allies (Saudi Arabia and now the US) respectively. And China itself has begun expanding coal power capacity at the highest rate in almost 10 years due to energy security concerns [1] Ironically, the Trump admin just gave a massive cash and tech injection into India's civilian nuclear and battery tech industries by starting to ToT American nuclear power plant designs, as well as subsidizing India's critical minerals industry (materials that are used to manufacture batteries and intermediate parts for PEVs) [2] Reality is, no state or leader of a large country actually cares about environmental factors because they can afford to paper the effects, and the brunt of the suffering will affect poorest countries/LDCs that lack that capacity [3] [0] - https://www.straitstimes.com/world/china-export-ban-on-engineers-and-equipment-disrupts-manufacturing-overseas https://www.straitstimes.com/world/china-export-ban-on-engin... [1] - https://apnews.com/article/china-coal-power-plant-carbon-climate-change-ba86e7584e3afe1826eed5cffa25354a https://apnews.com/article/china-coal-power-plant-carbon-cli... [2] - https://in.usembassy.gov/united-states-india-joint-leaders-statement/ https://in.usembassy.gov/united-states-india-joint-leaders-s... [3] - https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/11/01/the-rich-world-is-wrong-to-think-that-climate-impacts-in-poor-countries-dont-matter https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/11/01/the-rich...
- TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
  The pain is already happening. Food scarcity - and inflation - will happen before financial collapse and government collapse. It's already localised - currently coffee and cocoa - but at some point staples will affected. Which is when it gets interesting. This is the most incredible time in recorded history. There's never been a civilisation facing so many extreme existential threats at the same time. And all of them are self-inflicted, and would have been sidestepped or mitigated by a rational planetary culture - climate change, war (possibly nuclear), pandemics, catastrophic economic destruction, and AI.
  - Sharlin 2y ago
    Unfortunately, the average consumer has no idea that high coffee or chocolate prices have anything to do with the climate change. Apparently the average economical understanding is at the level of believing a president can magically make grocery prices come down.
- user32489318 2y ago
  It’s amusing to read that in your head the American middle class will cause a change in global warming, I’ll give you that.
  - bognition 2y ago
    It’s not in my head. Going back as far as 1992 George Bush was saying “The American lifestyle is non-negotiable” at an international gathering focused on climate change. This has proven true. It’s also spread across the globe and is a major contributor to green house gas emissions.
    - user32489318 2y ago
      I wasn’t clear, even if American middle class would make a change, by that time, developing countries would be at the stage where they could and would have our luxury lifestyle. And that population outside US/EU is much much larger.
rwyinuse 2y ago
Yep, the potential tipping points are terrifying. If the gulf stream collapses, my country will basically turn into Siberia, and our agriculture will collapse. It's kind of hard justify taking a typical mortgage that takes 20 years to pay back, when I'm not sure if the country will be habitable by the time I would own the house fully. Maybe geoengineering will save us, and we'll spray the atmosphere full of stuff that reflects sunlight to lower global temperatures. But it's best to prepare for the worst. I expect birth rates to continue collapsing as more young people realize they're probably doomed.
- actionfromafar 2y ago
  Birth rates will go right up when JD Vance relaxes federal mandates on car safety.
- jmclnx 2y ago
  >my country will basically turn into Siberia, I assume you are in NW Europe. It will not, it will be a bit or more warmer on average then now and you may get regular snow in the winter. Winters will probably be similar to New Brunswick now. But no, not Siberia.
  - janice1999 2y ago
    > it will be a bit or more warmer on average then now Averages don't matter as much as extremes for agriculture and infrastructure. The changes in extremes, particularly in winter, will completely upend the way of life for 10s of million of people. Parts of Norway will drop 20C. https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-melting-glaciers-shut-down-the-gulf-stream-we-would-see-extreme-climate-change-within-decades-study-shows-222834 https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-t...
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Parts of Norway will drop 20C. Yet you will still live, like millions do in similar temperatures across Canada and the US. The true brunt of the global climate catastrophe will be bore by the the global poor in LDCs which do not have the economies of scale or capital to mitigate some of the worst aspects of a degrading climate.

croes 2y ago

The deniers will admit it but then it’s because of Space lasers, Chemtrails, vaccines and weather engineering.

quesera 2y ago
"It's not happening" "OK maybe it's happening, but it's not a big deal" "OK maybe it's a big deal, but we didn't do it" "OK maybe we did some of it, but we can't fix it alone" "OK maybe we could do something but, that would put us at a disadvantage" "OK maybe we all need to do something, but how can we coordinate such a thing?" "OK maybe we could coordinate, but it would take 50 years to see any improvement" "OK it's too late, but at least some of us have made alternate plans for ourselves and our families" "OK I guess that's not how society and economy work, but how could we have known better?" ... Silly humans.

bognition 2y ago

Until the pain hits the wallet and stomach of the American middle class nothing is going to change. The ruling class and their media machine have people whipped into line and parroting back the talking points of the ultra wealthy. It’s going to take pain of a seismic level to break the hold on the minds that of the people.

yread 2y ago
I dont think India or China will close brand new coal power plants because US middle class has a wallet ache. We are fucked no matter what
- lblume 2y ago
  China's exports (and by extension, carbon emissions) are driven by American and European demands for cheap products. Drastically decreasing industrial demand would lead to Asian carbon emissions shrinking by a large margin.
- leosanchez 2y ago
  There is a huge push for rooftop solar in India.
- rwyinuse 2y ago
  At least China is also doing some good things, like building massive amounts of solar energy, and exporting cheap electric vehicles all around the world. Meanwhile the regime in America is actively attacking climate science and denying the whole issue. Compared to Trump's administration the Chinese Communist party is quite okay from environmental perspective.
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > Compared to Trump's administration the Chinese Communist party is quite okay from environmental perspective. Yet the Chinese government is blocking the export of inputs for Battery and Solar technology to India [0], which incentivizes India to remain using coal and natural gas as a stopgap, as those are sourced from domestic and close allies (Saudi Arabia and now the US) respectively. And China itself has begun expanding coal power capacity at the highest rate in almost 10 years due to energy security concerns [1] Ironically, the Trump admin just gave a massive cash and tech injection into India's civilian nuclear and battery tech industries by starting to ToT American nuclear power plant designs, as well as subsidizing India's critical minerals industry (materials that are used to manufacture batteries and intermediate parts for PEVs) [2] Reality is, no state or leader of a large country actually cares about environmental factors because they can afford to paper the effects, and the brunt of the suffering will affect poorest countries/LDCs that lack that capacity [3] [0] - https://www.straitstimes.com/world/china-export-ban-on-engineers-and-equipment-disrupts-manufacturing-overseas https://www.straitstimes.com/world/china-export-ban-on-engin... [1] - https://apnews.com/article/china-coal-power-plant-carbon-climate-change-ba86e7584e3afe1826eed5cffa25354a https://apnews.com/article/china-coal-power-plant-carbon-cli... [2] - https://in.usembassy.gov/united-states-india-joint-leaders-statement/ https://in.usembassy.gov/united-states-india-joint-leaders-s... [3] - https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/11/01/the-rich-world-is-wrong-to-think-that-climate-impacts-in-poor-countries-dont-matter https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/11/01/the-rich...
TheOtherHobbes 2y ago
The pain is already happening. Food scarcity - and inflation - will happen before financial collapse and government collapse. It's already localised - currently coffee and cocoa - but at some point staples will affected. Which is when it gets interesting. This is the most incredible time in recorded history. There's never been a civilisation facing so many extreme existential threats at the same time. And all of them are self-inflicted, and would have been sidestepped or mitigated by a rational planetary culture - climate change, war (possibly nuclear), pandemics, catastrophic economic destruction, and AI.
- Sharlin 2y ago
  Unfortunately, the average consumer has no idea that high coffee or chocolate prices have anything to do with the climate change. Apparently the average economical understanding is at the level of believing a president can magically make grocery prices come down.
user32489318 2y ago
It’s amusing to read that in your head the American middle class will cause a change in global warming, I’ll give you that.
- bognition 2y ago
  It’s not in my head. Going back as far as 1992 George Bush was saying “The American lifestyle is non-negotiable” at an international gathering focused on climate change. This has proven true. It’s also spread across the globe and is a major contributor to green house gas emissions.
  - user32489318 2y ago
    I wasn’t clear, even if American middle class would make a change, by that time, developing countries would be at the stage where they could and would have our luxury lifestyle. And that population outside US/EU is much much larger.

rwyinuse 2y ago

Yep, the potential tipping points are terrifying. If the gulf stream collapses, my country will basically turn into Siberia, and our agriculture will collapse. It's kind of hard justify taking a typical mortgage that takes 20 years to pay back, when I'm not sure if the country will be habitable by the time I would own the house fully. Maybe geoengineering will save us, and we'll spray the atmosphere full of stuff that reflects sunlight to lower global temperatures. But it's best to prepare for the worst. I expect birth rates to continue collapsing as more young people realize they're probably doomed.

actionfromafar 2y ago
Birth rates will go right up when JD Vance relaxes federal mandates on car safety.
jmclnx 2y ago
>my country will basically turn into Siberia, I assume you are in NW Europe. It will not, it will be a bit or more warmer on average then now and you may get regular snow in the winter. Winters will probably be similar to New Brunswick now. But no, not Siberia.
- janice1999 2y ago
  > it will be a bit or more warmer on average then now Averages don't matter as much as extremes for agriculture and infrastructure. The changes in extremes, particularly in winter, will completely upend the way of life for 10s of million of people. Parts of Norway will drop 20C. https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-melting-glaciers-shut-down-the-gulf-stream-we-would-see-extreme-climate-change-within-decades-study-shows-222834 https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-t...
  - alephnerd 2y ago
    > Parts of Norway will drop 20C. Yet you will still live, like millions do in similar temperatures across Canada and the US. The true brunt of the global climate catastrophe will be bore by the the global poor in LDCs which do not have the economies of scale or capital to mitigate some of the worst aspects of a degrading climate.