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Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials

by alecco 2y ago

Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials mostly controlled by China 2. Japan's demographic collapse 3. Japanese Gen Z fed up with an unwinnable rat race where they live to just pay rent and groceries It's very sad. [1] https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-japans-2024-ev-sales/ https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-ja...

formerly_proven 2y ago
There's one graph that basically predicts which countries are going to fail and which are going to prevail. It's the graph that shows how many people in the "doing things" age bracket a country has. Compare these: (germany) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilis... (alternatively, Europe as a whole) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilis... (Japan) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=392&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=392&type=Probabilis... (China) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=156&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=156&type=Probabilis... to this one (US) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=840&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=840&type=Probabilis... A key aggravating factor is most countries in the first group have stagnating productivity and the country in the second group has raising productivity on top. This creates a compound advantage for the country in the second group. It seems likely to me that there is almost no degree of anti-national behavior the government of that country would need to exhibit or no amount of country-eroding policies that could forfeit this fundamental advantage. They'd need to get their country literally nuked or something similarly catastrophic.
- morkalork 2y ago
  Canada doesn't feel like it's winning despite what the graph says*. Bringing in tons of working-aged immigrants has caused housing (and other living) costs to explode, which in turn has lead to less people having children, which leads to more immigration to fill the gap and the whole thing has been spiraling. Not fun at all. * https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=124&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=124&type=Probabilis...
  - cayleyh 2y ago
    The problem with just "living by the graph" is that it ignores whether the country has the capacity to provide basics like food, clothing, shelter, and employment to the population. You need to have both to have the working-age population be able to engage productively in the economy. The problem Canada created is that it tried to reset it's population graph without ensuring that there was an adequate supply of said basics, and in many instances (housing, food prices) had policies that actively undermined what needed to a happen to support a rapidly expanding population. JT and the other liberal leadership read the Century Initiative and all they took away as "we need 100m people!" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative) It's not that a country couldn't theoretically be successful resetting their population graph through immigration, but that they would also have to do things that would cause housing prices to fall or more competition (ie less corporate profits) in the other sectors to absorb the extra demand generated -- 2 things Canada has been absolutely unwilling to do in any meaningful until late last year.
    - 3vidence 2y ago
      Yeah there has been a pretty definitive drop in overall productivity in Canada since the sudden increase in population. I believe the economic term is population trap, where your society / economy can't expand fast enough to make efficient use of the addition in capital. It is pretty clear based on the constantly decreasing GDP per capita.
  - greenavocado 2y ago
onlypassingthru 2y ago
Irrelevant to whom? Toyota, Honda and Subaru all have lifelong customers and for good reason. The cars often last for 20+ years with minimal upkeep. The current crop of Chinese electric car makers are all trying to fake it until one of them makes it and the money spigot keeping them afloat will eventually get turned off at some point.[0] Good luck keeping that flashy EV running when the company goes bust. [0]https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-evs-losses-widen-despite-record-sales-competition-price-cuts-2024-11?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-evs-losses-widen-des...
- potato3732842 2y ago
  All cars last 20+yr if you give a crap unless they have some fundamental engineering or execution Achilles heel (ecoboost water pump, Toyota frame rust, Hyundai engine problems, etc) that will manifest as a comically not-economical repair when the vehicle is old enough in age to be of fairly low value. Premium cars that aren't so premium as to be disposable (i.e. not a luxury car you're gonna trade in every 3-5yr like clockwork) always last really well because people who can afford nice things can generally afford to maintain them. This is pretty clearly borne out when you compare same cars across brand e.g. Ford Lincoln Mercury panther platform cars) or look at the exceptions like all those objectively terrible northstar caddilacs and v12 Jags and whatnot that are in impeccable shape because they got used and maintained nicely for a decade before being "retired" to the garage of the owner's vacation property on Cape Cod or perhaps the Hamptons or compare airport people moving vans that were retired to church group service to work vans that got sold down the river to even harder service. It's really easy to "well we really should sell a water pump while we're in here for your 100k timing service" on a Subaru owned by someone who can afford a Subaru vs selling a preventative transmission fluid change to the guy who could barely scrape together the down payment on a Sentra. I'm being a little sloppy and leaving some loose ends and room for nitpicking jerks to wedge in but I think the point here is pretty clear.
  - Zardoz84 2y ago
    I have a Nissan Micra from 1998, working fine. Great little car. I inherited from my grandfather.
gabruoy 2y ago
I don't understand what point you're trying to make with your source. A relatively new company in the Japanese market (BYD) has increased sales in its specialized niche of EVs, beating out a minor competitor that sells only one model of EV as an option to it's brand loyal customers (Toyota, BZ4X). Meanwhile, the EV market as a whole has declined significantly in Japan over the last year.
- galimalint 2y ago
  https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicles/Japan-EV-sales-plummet-33-in-2024-first-decline-in-four-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicl... Sales of EVs in Japan fell 33% y/y to 59,736 cars in 2024, the first decline in 4 years. EV's share of all vehicle sales fell below 2% in Japan
- tjpnz 2y ago
  I live in Tokyo and have never seen a BYD in the wild.
NalNezumi 2y ago
I can understand point 1. But the other points seems odd to me. 2 is same in China, just delayed by maybe a decade or two but way way way worse due to one child policy. As for point 3 it also feels odd. When we check stats in the 3 Asian Tigers, the rat race (and young population sentiment around it) seems like Japan < South Korea <<< China. And usually my friends from those countries usually feel the same way. Lie down movement, all the frustration in SK showed to the world through their entertainment kinda shows this too.

by alecco 2y ago

formerly_proven 2y ago

There's one graph that basically predicts which countries are going to fail and which are going to prevail. It's the graph that shows how many people in the "doing things" age bracket a country has. Compare these: (germany) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilis... (alternatively, Europe as a whole) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilis... (Japan) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=392&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=392&type=Probabilis... (China) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=156&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=156&type=Probabilis... to this one (US) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=840&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=840&type=Probabilis... A key aggravating factor is most countries in the first group have stagnating productivity and the country in the second group has raising productivity on top. This creates a compound advantage for the country in the second group. It seems likely to me that there is almost no degree of anti-national behavior the government of that country would need to exhibit or no amount of country-eroding policies that could forfeit this fundamental advantage. They'd need to get their country literally nuked or something similarly catastrophic.

morkalork 2y ago
Canada doesn't feel like it's winning despite what the graph says*. Bringing in tons of working-aged immigrants has caused housing (and other living) costs to explode, which in turn has lead to less people having children, which leads to more immigration to fill the gap and the whole thing has been spiraling. Not fun at all. * https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=124&type=Probabilistic%20Projections&category=Population&subcategory=Age%2025-69 https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=124&type=Probabilis...
- cayleyh 2y ago
  The problem with just "living by the graph" is that it ignores whether the country has the capacity to provide basics like food, clothing, shelter, and employment to the population. You need to have both to have the working-age population be able to engage productively in the economy. The problem Canada created is that it tried to reset it's population graph without ensuring that there was an adequate supply of said basics, and in many instances (housing, food prices) had policies that actively undermined what needed to a happen to support a rapidly expanding population. JT and the other liberal leadership read the Century Initiative and all they took away as "we need 100m people!" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative) It's not that a country couldn't theoretically be successful resetting their population graph through immigration, but that they would also have to do things that would cause housing prices to fall or more competition (ie less corporate profits) in the other sectors to absorb the extra demand generated -- 2 things Canada has been absolutely unwilling to do in any meaningful until late last year.
  - 3vidence 2y ago
    Yeah there has been a pretty definitive drop in overall productivity in Canada since the sudden increase in population. I believe the economic term is population trap, where your society / economy can't expand fast enough to make efficient use of the addition in capital. It is pretty clear based on the constantly decreasing GDP per capita.
- greenavocado 2y ago

onlypassingthru 2y ago

Irrelevant to whom? Toyota, Honda and Subaru all have lifelong customers and for good reason. The cars often last for 20+ years with minimal upkeep. The current crop of Chinese electric car makers are all trying to fake it until one of them makes it and the money spigot keeping them afloat will eventually get turned off at some point.[0] Good luck keeping that flashy EV running when the company goes bust. [0]https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-evs-losses-widen-despite-record-sales-competition-price-cuts-2024-11?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-evs-losses-widen-des...

potato3732842 2y ago
All cars last 20+yr if you give a crap unless they have some fundamental engineering or execution Achilles heel (ecoboost water pump, Toyota frame rust, Hyundai engine problems, etc) that will manifest as a comically not-economical repair when the vehicle is old enough in age to be of fairly low value. Premium cars that aren't so premium as to be disposable (i.e. not a luxury car you're gonna trade in every 3-5yr like clockwork) always last really well because people who can afford nice things can generally afford to maintain them. This is pretty clearly borne out when you compare same cars across brand e.g. Ford Lincoln Mercury panther platform cars) or look at the exceptions like all those objectively terrible northstar caddilacs and v12 Jags and whatnot that are in impeccable shape because they got used and maintained nicely for a decade before being "retired" to the garage of the owner's vacation property on Cape Cod or perhaps the Hamptons or compare airport people moving vans that were retired to church group service to work vans that got sold down the river to even harder service. It's really easy to "well we really should sell a water pump while we're in here for your 100k timing service" on a Subaru owned by someone who can afford a Subaru vs selling a preventative transmission fluid change to the guy who could barely scrape together the down payment on a Sentra. I'm being a little sloppy and leaving some loose ends and room for nitpicking jerks to wedge in but I think the point here is pretty clear.
- Zardoz84 2y ago
  I have a Nissan Micra from 1998, working fine. Great little car. I inherited from my grandfather.

gabruoy 2y ago

I don't understand what point you're trying to make with your source. A relatively new company in the Japanese market (BYD) has increased sales in its specialized niche of EVs, beating out a minor competitor that sells only one model of EV as an option to it's brand loyal customers (Toyota, BZ4X). Meanwhile, the EV market as a whole has declined significantly in Japan over the last year.

galimalint 2y ago
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicles/Japan-EV-sales-plummet-33-in-2024-first-decline-in-four-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Electric-vehicl... Sales of EVs in Japan fell 33% y/y to 59,736 cars in 2024, the first decline in 4 years. EV's share of all vehicle sales fell below 2% in Japan
tjpnz 2y ago
I live in Tokyo and have never seen a BYD in the wild.

NalNezumi 2y ago

I can understand point 1. But the other points seems odd to me. 2 is same in China, just delayed by maybe a decade or two but way way way worse due to one child policy. As for point 3 it also feels odd. When we check stats in the 3 Asian Tigers, the rat race (and young population sentiment around it) seems like Japan < South Korea <<< China. And usually my friends from those countries usually feel the same way. Lie down movement, all the frustration in SK showed to the world through their entertainment kinda shows this too.