4 ms·

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team https:/

by lapcat 2y ago

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team https://www.lisep.org/team

tensor 2y ago
The "data" either supports their claim or it doesn't. They've defined a new metric, now they can back up their claim by showing how this metric has changed over the last 20 years.
- lapcat 2y ago
  Their website has white papers, methodology, and data.
bryanlarsen 2y ago
It's likely the problems are all in the politico framing of it. U7 seems useful. U7 being 24% feels right-ish. That's on Ludwig. Implying that 24% is worse than normal when it's likely one of the best values we've had in decades? That's on Politico.
- lapcat 2y ago
  The article with authored by Eugene Ludwig, so I'm not sure there's any separate Politico framing.
- sobellian 2y ago
  AFAICT the article was written by the guy that germinated the concept in the first place. You can see the paper at https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/63c1bb4dc740e1acb5d3b6dd_TRU%20White%20Paper.pdf https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/... tl;dr It is very highly correlated to U-3. The paper doesn't include 2024 in the data series but the figure the article cites, 23.7%, is very near all-time best. That's pretty deceptive framing IMO.
  - lapcat 2y ago
    I feel like you both may be missing the point. The article isn't just about the present. It takes a very long view: > The problem isn’t that some Americans didn’t come out ahead after four years of Bidenomics. Some did. It’s that, for the most part, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks > The bottom line is that, for 20 years or more, including the months prior to the election, voter perception was more reflective of reality than the incumbent statistics. In other words, the official statistics have been misleading for a very long time, misleading in the sense of not showing the true hardships of the economy on the voters. "Year X is better/worse than Year Y" is not really the point.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      > It’s that, for the most part, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks Then they should have made up a new number that proves that point rather than making up a new number that seems to imply the opposite. > In other words, the official statistics have been misleading for a very long time, misleading in the sense of not showing the true hardships of the economy on the voters. There is a relevant official statistic: the poverty statistic.
      - lapcat 2y ago
        But look at the charts in this whitepaper: https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/63c1bb4dc740e1acb5d3b6dd_TRU%20White%20Paper.pdf https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/... Their proposed unemployment rate tracks the official rate fairly well; the difference is that their rate is a lot higher than the official rate at almost every point in time over the past 30 years. The author also notes that the rates can vary significantly by circumstances, such as geographical location, race, and educational attainment. Increasingly, in recent times, the Democrat/Republican voter divide is becoming a college degreed/non-degreed divide.
        bryanlarsen 2y ago

by lapcat 2y ago

I think it's extremely unlikely that this team, led by a U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, just messed up something obvious: https://www.lisep.org/team https://www.lisep.org/team

tensor 2y ago

The "data" either supports their claim or it doesn't. They've defined a new metric, now they can back up their claim by showing how this metric has changed over the last 20 years.

lapcat 2y ago
Their website has white papers, methodology, and data.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

It's likely the problems are all in the politico framing of it. U7 seems useful. U7 being 24% feels right-ish. That's on Ludwig. Implying that 24% is worse than normal when it's likely one of the best values we've had in decades? That's on Politico.

lapcat 2y ago
The article with authored by Eugene Ludwig, so I'm not sure there's any separate Politico framing.
sobellian 2y ago
AFAICT the article was written by the guy that germinated the concept in the first place. You can see the paper at https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/63c1bb4dc740e1acb5d3b6dd_TRU%20White%20Paper.pdf https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/... tl;dr It is very highly correlated to U-3. The paper doesn't include 2024 in the data series but the figure the article cites, 23.7%, is very near all-time best. That's pretty deceptive framing IMO.
- lapcat 2y ago
  I feel like you both may be missing the point. The article isn't just about the present. It takes a very long view: > The problem isn’t that some Americans didn’t come out ahead after four years of Bidenomics. Some did. It’s that, for the most part, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks > The bottom line is that, for 20 years or more, including the months prior to the election, voter perception was more reflective of reality than the incumbent statistics. In other words, the official statistics have been misleading for a very long time, misleading in the sense of not showing the true hardships of the economy on the voters. "Year X is better/worse than Year Y" is not really the point.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    > It’s that, for the most part, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks Then they should have made up a new number that proves that point rather than making up a new number that seems to imply the opposite. > In other words, the official statistics have been misleading for a very long time, misleading in the sense of not showing the true hardships of the economy on the voters. There is a relevant official statistic: the poverty statistic.
    - lapcat 2y ago
      But look at the charts in this whitepaper: https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/63c1bb4dc740e1acb5d3b6dd_TRU%20White%20Paper.pdf https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/... Their proposed unemployment rate tracks the official rate fairly well; the difference is that their rate is a lot higher than the official rate at almost every point in time over the past 30 years. The author also notes that the rates can vary significantly by circumstances, such as geographical location, race, and educational attainment. Increasingly, in recent times, the Democrat/Republican voter divide is becoming a college degreed/non-degreed divide.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago