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I've heard arguments that you should buy NVDA as a hedge for losing your job to AI. Not sure what to make of it.

url00 2y ago
If AI actually starts replacing jobs, society is going to collapse/restructure to the point that risk management no longer applies.
- throwaway290 2y ago
  It is replacing jobs
  - SteveNuts 2y ago
    > It is replacing jobs Prematurely, in my opinion only. A lot of those will be coming back unless there's a major breakthrough soon.
  - skywhopper 2y ago
    Which ones? In reality, I mean, not executives’ fantasies.
    - burnte 2y ago
      I spend 90 minutes in a meeting with our CEO and two board members and the one guy went on almost the entire time about how amazing OpenAI Operators was and how we should find a way to replace most of our people with it. All because it was able to buy a plane ticket after he give it his login credentials.
      - ziddoap 2y ago
        Perfect example of a fantasy put forth by an executive.
        bdangubic 2y ago
        these kind of comments on HN show me how many people lack creativity. wherever you work(ed) I am sure you met myriad of people and thought: - they don’t do shit - I can do what they do in my sleep it is these types of jobs that are being replaced and are easily replaceable with a little bit of creativity and imagination…
        ziddoap 2y ago
        The parent comment asked (very specifically!) for real examples, not C-suite fantasies. They received a reply literally describing the fantasy of a c-suite individual. I thought that was funny. How my one sentence reply pointing out the irony of the reply led you to believe that I (we? lots of HNers?) lack creativity is beyond me.
        throwaway290 2y ago
        If management knows that underperformers are underperformers in order to fire them in favor of LLMs then management could do it already in favor of better workers. You can basically string replace "replace underperforming humans" with "replace humans". That is their dream
      - quickslowdown 2y ago
        I'm dealing with this as well. CEO basically soiled himself with excitement in a group chat, some toadies joined in, most were silent. Because how else can you receive that other than "think of all the money we'd have if we could get rid of those needy workers"
        throwaway290 2y ago
        The workers on whose work the thing was trained, too
    - throwaway290 2y ago
      You didn't notice a bunch of layoffs in 2024?
- robertlagrant 2y ago
  > If AI actually starts replacing jobs, society is going to collapse/restructure to the point that risk management no longer applies. Once more, with feeling: automation has continued to replace jobs. That's why you aren't currently toiling in a field to eke out a meagre subsistence living. If AI starts to replace jobs (a statement made true if a single job is replaced by AI) then likely the good or service that fronts that job will become slightly cheaper, or the same.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    What if AI can replace 100% of jobs that don't require manual labor?
    - robertlagrant 2y ago
      I imagine we'll invent new jobs that we want humans to do. Why do people pay thousands for mechanical watches when quartz ones are objectively better?
mrbungie 2y ago
What I can't wrap my head around is the fact NVDA almost is a representation of "AI infrastructure" in the narrative. It is weird now that everyone is saying the focus is be in inference / test time scaling compute: inference should be easier to offload to chips from other manufacturers. Maybe I'm too dense to get it, but that doesn't make sense to me.
- somanyphotons 2y ago
  I think there is a money to be made in making huge slow inference chips It needs, * Does the very best model fit in ram * Does it eventually produce an answer I'm completely ok with waiting a few minutes for an inference answer if I can avoid spending $250k for an 8x
  - mrbungie 2y ago
    Me too. Just as most problems won't need "phd-level intelligence" (whatever they might want you to think, 10x devs don't require phd skills nor research abilities / test time compute for being good at their job), most problems won't need subsecond latency or response time. I'm fine waiting, not sure if others really need the best now or ever.
morsecodist 2y ago
Even if the technology of AI ends up driving a huge economic value there is no guarantee that will translate into NVIDIA stock performance. The expectation that NVIDIA will capture a lot of this value is already priced in to the stock, which is a major reason why the current price is so high.
panarky 2y ago
A better hedge might be private prison corporations and private military contractors.
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  For prisons see GEO (up 100% since the election [0]) and CXW (Up 50% [1]) gov't contractors are in a bit of a bind given the treasury chaos (consider the current agenda to cut waste and inefficiencies) Looking around for private security I don't see anything publicly traded but I did learn there is an ETF named GUNZ [2] and one might check out the companies they invest in. [0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEO/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEO/ [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CXW/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CXW/ [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GUNZ/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GUNZ/

If AI actually starts replacing jobs, society is going to collapse/restructure to the point that risk management no longer applies.

throwaway290 2y ago
It is replacing jobs
- SteveNuts 2y ago
  > It is replacing jobs Prematurely, in my opinion only. A lot of those will be coming back unless there's a major breakthrough soon.
- skywhopper 2y ago
  Which ones? In reality, I mean, not executives’ fantasies.
  - burnte 2y ago
    I spend 90 minutes in a meeting with our CEO and two board members and the one guy went on almost the entire time about how amazing OpenAI Operators was and how we should find a way to replace most of our people with it. All because it was able to buy a plane ticket after he give it his login credentials.
    - ziddoap 2y ago
      Perfect example of a fantasy put forth by an executive.
      - bdangubic 2y ago
        these kind of comments on HN show me how many people lack creativity. wherever you work(ed) I am sure you met myriad of people and thought: - they don’t do shit - I can do what they do in my sleep it is these types of jobs that are being replaced and are easily replaceable with a little bit of creativity and imagination…
        ziddoap 2y ago
        The parent comment asked (very specifically!) for real examples, not C-suite fantasies. They received a reply literally describing the fantasy of a c-suite individual. I thought that was funny. How my one sentence reply pointing out the irony of the reply led you to believe that I (we? lots of HNers?) lack creativity is beyond me.
        throwaway290 2y ago
        If management knows that underperformers are underperformers in order to fire them in favor of LLMs then management could do it already in favor of better workers. You can basically string replace "replace underperforming humans" with "replace humans". That is their dream
    - quickslowdown 2y ago
      I'm dealing with this as well. CEO basically soiled himself with excitement in a group chat, some toadies joined in, most were silent. Because how else can you receive that other than "think of all the money we'd have if we could get rid of those needy workers"
      - throwaway290 2y ago
        The workers on whose work the thing was trained, too
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    You didn't notice a bunch of layoffs in 2024?
robertlagrant 2y ago
> If AI actually starts replacing jobs, society is going to collapse/restructure to the point that risk management no longer applies. Once more, with feeling: automation has continued to replace jobs. That's why you aren't currently toiling in a field to eke out a meagre subsistence living. If AI starts to replace jobs (a statement made true if a single job is replaced by AI) then likely the good or service that fronts that job will become slightly cheaper, or the same.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  What if AI can replace 100% of jobs that don't require manual labor?
  - robertlagrant 2y ago
    I imagine we'll invent new jobs that we want humans to do. Why do people pay thousands for mechanical watches when quartz ones are objectively better?

mrbungie 2y ago

What I can't wrap my head around is the fact NVDA almost is a representation of "AI infrastructure" in the narrative. It is weird now that everyone is saying the focus is be in inference / test time scaling compute: inference should be easier to offload to chips from other manufacturers. Maybe I'm too dense to get it, but that doesn't make sense to me.

somanyphotons 2y ago
I think there is a money to be made in making huge slow inference chips It needs, * Does the very best model fit in ram * Does it eventually produce an answer I'm completely ok with waiting a few minutes for an inference answer if I can avoid spending $250k for an 8x
- mrbungie 2y ago
  Me too. Just as most problems won't need "phd-level intelligence" (whatever they might want you to think, 10x devs don't require phd skills nor research abilities / test time compute for being good at their job), most problems won't need subsecond latency or response time. I'm fine waiting, not sure if others really need the best now or ever.

morsecodist 2y ago

Even if the technology of AI ends up driving a huge economic value there is no guarantee that will translate into NVIDIA stock performance. The expectation that NVIDIA will capture a lot of this value is already priced in to the stock, which is a major reason why the current price is so high.

panarky 2y ago

A better hedge might be private prison corporations and private military contractors.

jazzyjackson 2y ago
For prisons see GEO (up 100% since the election [0]) and CXW (Up 50% [1]) gov't contractors are in a bit of a bind given the treasury chaos (consider the current agenda to cut waste and inefficiencies) Looking around for private security I don't see anything publicly traded but I did learn there is an ETF named GUNZ [2] and one might check out the companies they invest in. [0] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEO/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEO/ [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CXW/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CXW/ [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GUNZ/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GUNZ/