4 ms·
My current thinking for 2028/29: - 20% likelihood of no election at all - 70% "managed democracy" with outcome decided in advance - 10% normal transfer of po
by andyjohnson0 2y ago
My current thinking for 2028/29:
- 20% likelihood of no election at all
- 70% "managed democracy" with outcome decided in advance
- 10% normal transfer of power if Trump or his successor loses
I think they're racing against the mid-terms next year. If they can lock it in by then then they're home free.
(disclosure: Brit not USian)
- matwood 2y ago> I think they're racing against the mid-terms next year. This is the race. Historically the party in power loses the mid-terms, and I think we're already seeing huge portions of the population having buyers remorse. But, Trumps team knows this. I was waiting for them to attack the FEC, and here we are. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/us/politics/federal-election-commission-weintraub-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/us/politics/federal-elect...