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Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledg

Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledge that you can attach to a headset manna-style [0]. The only thing that makes blue collar work different from any minimum wage labor is the System 2 reasoning required, and that'll get solved. [0] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1

post-it 2y ago
Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.
semi-extrinsic 2y ago
It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.
- azan_ 2y ago
  > It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
  - daotoad 2y ago
    Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.
    - leereeves 2y ago
      We do have robots that can fold laundry (in a regular laundry room, and supposedly trained with a generalist policy that can learn other tasks). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU
  - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
    One thing is as sibling post commented, the complexity of such jobs are staggering from a robotics point of view. The other thing is that the salary of the plumber or welder is in the range $20/hr to $40/hr. Can you make a general purpose, agile robot function at a total cost of ownership that's substantially lower than this?

post-it 2y ago

Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.

semi-extrinsic 2y ago

It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.

azan_ 2y ago
> It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
- daotoad 2y ago
  Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.
  - leereeves 2y ago
    We do have robots that can fold laundry (in a regular laundry room, and supposedly trained with a generalist policy that can learn other tasks). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU
- semi-extrinsic 2y ago
  One thing is as sibling post commented, the complexity of such jobs are staggering from a robotics point of view. The other thing is that the salary of the plumber or welder is in the range $20/hr to $40/hr. Can you make a general purpose, agile robot function at a total cost of ownership that's substantially lower than this?