3 ms·

In a world where programmers can be replaced, it's less clear to me that plumbers, janitors, electricians, construction laborers, etc, are also all out of a job

by johnfn 2y ago

In a world where programmers can be replaced, it's less clear to me that plumbers, janitors, electricians, construction laborers, etc, are also all out of a job.

reducesuffering 2y ago
Think secondary effects. What does a world in which almost every programmer can be automated look like? It looks like massive extremely fast technological development, how to build and program robotics will be solved almost instantly. With solved robotics goes every other labor. We don't get the same current X productivity with 1/100th the people. We get 100x productivity, controlled by a few people / megacorps, until they lose control of it too.
- johnfn 2y ago
  I still don't see it. I think for quite a while replacing a single engineer will be costly and resource-intensive. I think many companies would be happy to replace all programmers with AI that are just as slow as programmers, but marginally cheaper. That doesn't mean that we'll suddenly have massive extremely fast technological development.
suyash 2y ago
Here is a saying that I really think summarises "AI will replace white-collar jobs and Robotics will replace blue-collar jobs".
- post-it 2y ago
  Yeah, but it doesn't look like there's been much progress on the robotics front.
  - throw83288 2y ago
    Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledge that you can attach to a headset manna-style [0]. The only thing that makes blue collar work different from any minimum wage labor is the System 2 reasoning required, and that'll get solved. [0] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
    - post-it 2y ago
      Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.
    - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
      It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.
      - azan_ 2y ago
        > It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
        daotoad 2y ago
        Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.
        leereeves 2y ago
        We do have robots that can fold laundry (in a regular laundry room, and supposedly trained with a generalist policy that can learn other tasks). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU
        semi-extrinsic 2y ago

by johnfn 2y ago

In a world where programmers can be replaced, it's less clear to me that plumbers, janitors, electricians, construction laborers, etc, are also all out of a job.

reducesuffering 2y ago

Think secondary effects. What does a world in which almost every programmer can be automated look like? It looks like massive extremely fast technological development, how to build and program robotics will be solved almost instantly. With solved robotics goes every other labor. We don't get the same current X productivity with 1/100th the people. We get 100x productivity, controlled by a few people / megacorps, until they lose control of it too.

johnfn 2y ago
I still don't see it. I think for quite a while replacing a single engineer will be costly and resource-intensive. I think many companies would be happy to replace all programmers with AI that are just as slow as programmers, but marginally cheaper. That doesn't mean that we'll suddenly have massive extremely fast technological development.

suyash 2y ago

Here is a saying that I really think summarises "AI will replace white-collar jobs and Robotics will replace blue-collar jobs".

post-it 2y ago
Yeah, but it doesn't look like there's been much progress on the robotics front.
- throw83288 2y ago
  Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledge that you can attach to a headset manna-style [0]. The only thing that makes blue collar work different from any minimum wage labor is the System 2 reasoning required, and that'll get solved. [0] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
  - post-it 2y ago
    Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.
  - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
    It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.
    - azan_ 2y ago
      > It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
      - daotoad 2y ago
        Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.
        leereeves 2y ago
        We do have robots that can fold laundry (in a regular laundry room, and supposedly trained with a generalist policy that can learn other tasks). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyXCMhnb_lU
      - semi-extrinsic 2y ago