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If we actually could get to a world where programmers can be replaced, we'll also likely find that vast swathes of the population will be replaced. Then we'll n

If we actually could get to a world where programmers can be replaced, we'll also likely find that vast swathes of the population will be replaced. Then we'll need a totally new conversation on how society should look. That conversation is coming no matter what, because there will not be a global consensus to stop ML development, esp. on the war front.

johnfn 2y ago
In a world where programmers can be replaced, it's less clear to me that plumbers, janitors, electricians, construction laborers, etc, are also all out of a job.
- reducesuffering 2y ago
  Think secondary effects. What does a world in which almost every programmer can be automated look like? It looks like massive extremely fast technological development, how to build and program robotics will be solved almost instantly. With solved robotics goes every other labor. We don't get the same current X productivity with 1/100th the people. We get 100x productivity, controlled by a few people / megacorps, until they lose control of it too.
  - johnfn 2y ago
    I still don't see it. I think for quite a while replacing a single engineer will be costly and resource-intensive. I think many companies would be happy to replace all programmers with AI that are just as slow as programmers, but marginally cheaper. That doesn't mean that we'll suddenly have massive extremely fast technological development.
- suyash 2y ago
  Here is a saying that I really think summarises "AI will replace white-collar jobs and Robotics will replace blue-collar jobs".
  - post-it 2y ago
    Yeah, but it doesn't look like there's been much progress on the robotics front.
    - throw83288 2y ago
      Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledge that you can attach to a headset manna-style [0]. The only thing that makes blue collar work different from any minimum wage labor is the System 2 reasoning required, and that'll get solved. [0] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
      - post-it 2y ago
        Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.
      - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
        It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.
        azan_ 2y ago
        > It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
        daotoad 2y ago
        Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.
gokhan 2y ago
As a programmer, I think it's easier to replace programmers than many other occupations. We work with generic DSLs called programming languages, which can be easily handled by AI. Most of what we produce can be easily parsed by an AI. We work in small, incremental tasks which is perfect for AI. Most of us use the same set of tools. What else? UI is similar everywhere, especially in LoB apps. What we produce is repetitive, most of us practically doing clever meshups of the code on the Internet. Thank Crom I'm old. But I'm worried for my kids.
- machine_ghost 2y ago
  In the long run, yes, but if programming were so rote and simple, we all wouldn't have jobs in the first place. Look, technology has always replaced jobs, throughout history (how many of you know professional lamp lighters, elevator doormen, or switchboard operators?) But the thing is, tech has always replaced the jobs that are easiest to automate ... not the "intellectual work". I would be far more worried about being a real estate agent, food preparer, or heck, even a lawyer (for some specialties at least). I think they're all at more risk than programmers.
  - myth_drannon 2y ago
    real estate agents, lawyers are all licensed professionals... they will not be replaced but possibly these professions will be overcrowded.
- ericmcer 2y ago
  Doing the small incremental tasks is the easiest part of programming. All the complexity lies in taking giant specs and breaking it into manageable goals and then small tasks. AI is still pretty far from doing that, but I agree, I would not want to be a teenager right now and face the prospect of entering the workforce after 10 years more of progress. Unless work is a thing of the past by then, and we were the last generation of suckers who lived under the reality where 40hrs/week was just the way life is.
- balls187 2y ago
  "The report of my death was an exaggeration." - Mark Twain. I don't see it as "replacing programmers" but rather, trying to solve the types of problems that programmers solve, but more cheaply. I'm not sure your age relative to mine, but I got my start a hair breath after 9-11 in the defense industry. I've experienced the "tectonic" shifts in programming since that time. In each case, Programmers seemed to shift away from the work that was being done more cheaply, to work that require more specialization that was harder to be done. I see the promise of AI as a threat to my job, but the reality is likely more like what happened with automobiles vs horses. Less horse shoe makers, more car mechanics. Some day, I may be too tired and too dumb to become a mechanic. But today is not that day.
bluerooibos 2y ago
I mean this is literally happening as we speak - the process has started and it's accelerating. Governments need to be talking about this like yesterday, and very few are from what I'm seeing. AI companies and others using AI are going to profit from this massively, at the expense of many more. We need a better tax system to redistribute these profits across society as a whole. The issue is capitalism but AI exploding is going to exacerbate wealth inequality like nothing else.

johnfn 2y ago

In a world where programmers can be replaced, it's less clear to me that plumbers, janitors, electricians, construction laborers, etc, are also all out of a job.

reducesuffering 2y ago
Think secondary effects. What does a world in which almost every programmer can be automated look like? It looks like massive extremely fast technological development, how to build and program robotics will be solved almost instantly. With solved robotics goes every other labor. We don't get the same current X productivity with 1/100th the people. We get 100x productivity, controlled by a few people / megacorps, until they lose control of it too.
- johnfn 2y ago
  I still don't see it. I think for quite a while replacing a single engineer will be costly and resource-intensive. I think many companies would be happy to replace all programmers with AI that are just as slow as programmers, but marginally cheaper. That doesn't mean that we'll suddenly have massive extremely fast technological development.
suyash 2y ago
Here is a saying that I really think summarises "AI will replace white-collar jobs and Robotics will replace blue-collar jobs".
- post-it 2y ago
  Yeah, but it doesn't look like there's been much progress on the robotics front.
  - throw83288 2y ago
    Until reasoner AI 10x's research and solves it far ahead of schedule. You don't even need robotics, just a good multi-modal reasoner model with domain knowledge that you can attach to a headset manna-style [0]. The only thing that makes blue collar work different from any minimum wage labor is the System 2 reasoning required, and that'll get solved. [0] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
    - post-it 2y ago
      Also, you know, muscle memory. The idea that you could slap a headset on a rando and just walk them through doing a trade is ludicrous. It's a great teaching tool, but you can't use it to replace a trade worker real-time.
    - semi-extrinsic 2y ago
      It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset.
      - azan_ 2y ago
        > It sounds like you've never used a welding torch, installed a kitchen sink, or done similar blue collar work. These jobs will never be replaced by robots, or by a non-trained person wearing a headset. Why do you think they will never be replaced by robots?
        daotoad 2y ago
        Not the person who said it and I wouldn't say "never"... But I will say that until we have a robot that can fold laundry, we won't have a robot that can go into your crawlspace and replace a chunk of crusty old galvanized pipe with copper or pex. Robots have excelled, so far, in controlled environments. Dealing with the chaos of plumbing in a building that has been "improved" by different people over the course of a century is the opposite of that.

gokhan 2y ago

As a programmer, I think it's easier to replace programmers than many other occupations. We work with generic DSLs called programming languages, which can be easily handled by AI. Most of what we produce can be easily parsed by an AI. We work in small, incremental tasks which is perfect for AI. Most of us use the same set of tools. What else? UI is similar everywhere, especially in LoB apps. What we produce is repetitive, most of us practically doing clever meshups of the code on the Internet. Thank Crom I'm old. But I'm worried for my kids.

machine_ghost 2y ago
In the long run, yes, but if programming were so rote and simple, we all wouldn't have jobs in the first place. Look, technology has always replaced jobs, throughout history (how many of you know professional lamp lighters, elevator doormen, or switchboard operators?) But the thing is, tech has always replaced the jobs that are easiest to automate ... not the "intellectual work". I would be far more worried about being a real estate agent, food preparer, or heck, even a lawyer (for some specialties at least). I think they're all at more risk than programmers.
- myth_drannon 2y ago
  real estate agents, lawyers are all licensed professionals... they will not be replaced but possibly these professions will be overcrowded.
ericmcer 2y ago
Doing the small incremental tasks is the easiest part of programming. All the complexity lies in taking giant specs and breaking it into manageable goals and then small tasks. AI is still pretty far from doing that, but I agree, I would not want to be a teenager right now and face the prospect of entering the workforce after 10 years more of progress. Unless work is a thing of the past by then, and we were the last generation of suckers who lived under the reality where 40hrs/week was just the way life is.
balls187 2y ago
"The report of my death was an exaggeration." - Mark Twain. I don't see it as "replacing programmers" but rather, trying to solve the types of problems that programmers solve, but more cheaply. I'm not sure your age relative to mine, but I got my start a hair breath after 9-11 in the defense industry. I've experienced the "tectonic" shifts in programming since that time. In each case, Programmers seemed to shift away from the work that was being done more cheaply, to work that require more specialization that was harder to be done. I see the promise of AI as a threat to my job, but the reality is likely more like what happened with automobiles vs horses. Less horse shoe makers, more car mechanics. Some day, I may be too tired and too dumb to become a mechanic. But today is not that day.

bluerooibos 2y ago

I mean this is literally happening as we speak - the process has started and it's accelerating. Governments need to be talking about this like yesterday, and very few are from what I'm seeing. AI companies and others using AI are going to profit from this massively, at the expense of many more. We need a better tax system to redistribute these profits across society as a whole. The issue is capitalism but AI exploding is going to exacerbate wealth inequality like nothing else.