3 ms·

The H100 is sold around 25k USD, with a production cost of only around $3k USD according to estimates. Also it is heavily export controlled meaning many countr

by janmo 2y ago

The H100 is sold around 25k USD, with a production cost of only around $3k USD according to estimates. Also it is heavily export controlled meaning many countries can't get their hand on it. So even with the 910C consuming more electricity and having lower yields there will certainly be a market for it.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
To a point sure. Commercial viability doesn’t mean they need to match NVIDIA, they just need yields (and power consumption) that are just good enough. They are going to go for scale, so even power consumption is going to dictate how many nuclear plants they need to build.
- janmo 2y ago
  That's also a good point, electricity prices are much lower in China than in the US and Europe. See the article: "China’s Overlooked AI Energy Edge Over the US: Cheaper Energy"
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    Electricity prices being cheaper than in the US doesn’t necessarily mean electricity is actually cheaper. They subsidize a lot of it since utilities are state run and rates are set by politicians just as much as they are set based on costs. Farmers still freeze in the winter when they are forced to switch from in-home coal to electric heating (natural gas isn’t viable in rural China, and propane tanks are often banned for purposes other than cooking), electricity is cheap but not cheap enough compared to what they earn.
    - bencyeah 2y ago
      Your critique contains multiple factual inaccuracies: 1. Price Formation: China's electricity pricing isn't politically manipulated. Since 2021, 60.8% of electricity has been traded in competitive markets (NDRC 2022), with industrial users paying 20-40% more than residents. 2. Rural Heating: 12 million rural households received $3.5B in 2023 heating subsidies (MOF), reducing coal-based PM2.5 by 54% since 2015 (MEE). Freeze incidents decreased 78% post-2020 grid upgrades (State Grid Corporation). 3. Energy Access: Over 98% villages now have LPG access via 53,000 licensed stations (MEM), with 300m CNG cylinders in rural circulation - 4x more than in 2017. 4. Affordability: Rural electricity costs average 5.9% of income vs 8.7% in US farm households (OECD 2023). China's residential rates remain 30% below commercial tariffs to protect vulnerable groups. While transitional challenges existed during 2017-19 coal-to-clean shift, WHO-certified data shows rural respiratory hospitalizations dropped 22% since 2020. The "cheap energy=state control" narrative oversimplifies complex market structures evolving since 2015 reforms.

by janmo 2y ago

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

To a point sure. Commercial viability doesn’t mean they need to match NVIDIA, they just need yields (and power consumption) that are just good enough. They are going to go for scale, so even power consumption is going to dictate how many nuclear plants they need to build.

janmo 2y ago
That's also a good point, electricity prices are much lower in China than in the US and Europe. See the article: "China’s Overlooked AI Energy Edge Over the US: Cheaper Energy"
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  Electricity prices being cheaper than in the US doesn’t necessarily mean electricity is actually cheaper. They subsidize a lot of it since utilities are state run and rates are set by politicians just as much as they are set based on costs. Farmers still freeze in the winter when they are forced to switch from in-home coal to electric heating (natural gas isn’t viable in rural China, and propane tanks are often banned for purposes other than cooking), electricity is cheap but not cheap enough compared to what they earn.
  - bencyeah 2y ago
    Your critique contains multiple factual inaccuracies: 1. Price Formation: China's electricity pricing isn't politically manipulated. Since 2021, 60.8% of electricity has been traded in competitive markets (NDRC 2022), with industrial users paying 20-40% more than residents. 2. Rural Heating: 12 million rural households received $3.5B in 2023 heating subsidies (MOF), reducing coal-based PM2.5 by 54% since 2015 (MEE). Freeze incidents decreased 78% post-2020 grid upgrades (State Grid Corporation). 3. Energy Access: Over 98% villages now have LPG access via 53,000 licensed stations (MEM), with 300m CNG cylinders in rural circulation - 4x more than in 2017. 4. Affordability: Rural electricity costs average 5.9% of income vs 8.7% in US farm households (OECD 2023). China's residential rates remain 30% below commercial tariffs to protect vulnerable groups. While transitional challenges existed during 2017-19 coal-to-clean shift, WHO-certified data shows rural respiratory hospitalizations dropped 22% since 2020. The "cheap energy=state control" narrative oversimplifies complex market structures evolving since 2015 reforms.