3 ms·

Chinese solar firms go where US tariffs don't reach

6 points by namanyayg 2y ago

anovikov 2y ago
U.S. market for solar panels is tiny and won't change much for Chinese solar producers. They are sitting on 1200 GW/y production capacity for panels and U.S. installations in 2024 were only 30 GW. Many other companies may be worried about tariffs but not solar ones.
- kragen 2y ago
  The US market for solar panels is only tiny because solar panels in the US are so overpriced and constantly subject to these kleptocratic tariff games. US total primary energy consumption is 94 quadrillion BTU per year https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ which is 3 terawatts, about 15% of total world consumption. Satisfying even the US's current energy consumption from solar with a capacity factor of 25% would thus require 12TWp of solar panels, which would be 12000 GW, 10 years of your figure for China's current production capacity (which I have no reason to doubt). Of course, a lot of that primary energy consumption goes out the exhaust of thermal power plants, whether electric generating station smokestacks or truck exhaust pipes, so maybe you'd need as little as 40% of that when you're getting pure, sweet exergy. But, on the other hand, overprovisioning is one of the cheaper ways to mitigate the intermittency of photovoltaic, and the dramatically lower price of energy seems certain to stimulate many new energy-intensive industries, so the potential market is actually much larger.
  - anovikov 2y ago
    Price of raw solar panels and inverters is so absurdly cheap, tariffs can't impact them much. They make under 10% of final price of installed systems and included financing costs and maintenance over lifetime, under 5% of LCOE. Even if you put 200% tariff that will only raise electricity cost by 10%. Almost all cost there is soft cost. And land use fees. There are few solar installations being made in the US because US has energy security and needs none of that stuff: it produces way more than enough of reliable fossil based energy for itself with plenty left for export. China is in a different position.

6 points by namanyayg 2y ago

U.S. market for solar panels is tiny and won't change much for Chinese solar producers. They are sitting on 1200 GW/y production capacity for panels and U.S. installations in 2024 were only 30 GW. Many other companies may be worried about tariffs but not solar ones.

kragen 2y ago
The US market for solar panels is only tiny because solar panels in the US are so overpriced and constantly subject to these kleptocratic tariff games. US total primary energy consumption is 94 quadrillion BTU per year https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ which is 3 terawatts, about 15% of total world consumption. Satisfying even the US's current energy consumption from solar with a capacity factor of 25% would thus require 12TWp of solar panels, which would be 12000 GW, 10 years of your figure for China's current production capacity (which I have no reason to doubt). Of course, a lot of that primary energy consumption goes out the exhaust of thermal power plants, whether electric generating station smokestacks or truck exhaust pipes, so maybe you'd need as little as 40% of that when you're getting pure, sweet exergy. But, on the other hand, overprovisioning is one of the cheaper ways to mitigate the intermittency of photovoltaic, and the dramatically lower price of energy seems certain to stimulate many new energy-intensive industries, so the potential market is actually much larger.
- anovikov 2y ago
  Price of raw solar panels and inverters is so absurdly cheap, tariffs can't impact them much. They make under 10% of final price of installed systems and included financing costs and maintenance over lifetime, under 5% of LCOE. Even if you put 200% tariff that will only raise electricity cost by 10%. Almost all cost there is soft cost. And land use fees. There are few solar installations being made in the US because US has energy security and needs none of that stuff: it produces way more than enough of reliable fossil based energy for itself with plenty left for export. China is in a different position.