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China reunifies Taiwan: 100% US responds militarily: not likely but possible

by suraci 2y ago

jonnybgood 2y ago
The only way the US will not respond militarily is if Taiwan chooses unification. By all accounts, Taiwan will not choose that. The US military has not been strategically shifting to the Indo-Pacific for more than 10 years now for no reason.
- lupusreal 2y ago
  If China acted quickly in disabling American military assets in the region, it is conceivably possible that Taiwanese people could be demoralized and surrender to the PRC before America has a chance to muster more forces to the region. Even if this definitely wouldn't be possible, it's still possible that the PRC thinks otherwise and will try it, as Japan once did.
  - ethbr1 2y ago
    Any Chinese move on Taiwan starts with plastering Guam. :(
  - spacemanspiff01 2y ago
    The counter to this is that it might make more sense for China to _not_ attack the United States with the anticipation that they sit it out. China attacking US forces/ naval bases makes it much harder for a president to sit back and say not our problem/ focus on economic sanctions. Imagine if Russia started the invasion of Ukraine by bombing polish railways, so that the Ukrainians would not be able to get supplies/resources from the EU. I would think that the EU/Nato response to that would be much more severe than what happened in reality. While Guam might be considered different, as most Americans cannot place it on a map and it is on the other side of the world, seeing caskets of all the US troops dying makes it pretty hard to politically shrug off as not our problem.
    - ls612 2y ago
      The game theoretic problem with this scenario (and thus why a Pacific escalation scenario is so dangerous) is that China has essentially all of its forces in the area around China, whereas the US and its treaty allies have their forces scattered around the world. Thus even if the US has a bigger military most of it won't be in theater on day 1 of a conflict, leading China to have every incentive to move as fast as possible and present a fait accompli to the West. If they choose to just do nothing to the US and hope America sits it out, it just gives the US time to redress this force imbalance in the region by moving in assets from around the world. That leads China to be strongly incentivized to strike US forces on day 1, in much the same way the IJN was incentivized to strike early and strike hard 85 years ago.
      - jjk166 2y ago
        A naval invasion of Taiwan would be among the largest military operations in history, requiring immense preparation both to produce the necessary equipment and to move it into position, to say nothing of moving and training all the participating forces. In the era of satellite surveillance, the US would know months if not years in advance. They would almost certainly preposition forces in proximity both as a deterrent and as a potential response force. There's no comparing today's circumstances to a time when a carrier strike group could sneak up and launch a surprise attack on a US base.
        lupusreal 2y ago
        Chinese naval assets, most particularly their large transports and landing craft, would be extremely vulnerable to antiship missiles. They're building those anyway, which suggests they have some sort of plan to use them after the antiship missile threat has been eliminated in the region. The most plausible way to accomplish that is to paralyze the American response by having Taiwan capitulate very fast, before the invasion actually takes place. Starting and finishing the war with the rapid destruction of key American military bases and surface assets (almost certainly using missiles, not a "sneaky carrier group") could shock Taiwan into a rapid capitulation, which in turn could neutralize (politically) the American fast attack subs that could otherwise decimate the vulnerable invasion fleet (which they are building, regardless of how little sense it makes to us.)
- _heimdall 2y ago
  I wouldn't be surprised if the response to an invasion of Taiwan looked very similar to the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The world did nothing for about a week and it seemed as though leaders were willing to sit on their hands for a week to see if it ended quickly. When it didn't they moved from vague, hand wavy statements to economic sanctions. If China tries to invade we very well could see a weak, hollow political response from world leaders unless China falters and is stopped initially.
  - ethbr1 2y ago
    I don't think the world will accept a blockade of Taiwan in the event of an invasion. If there's a Chinese fleet or aircraft to the east of the island, there will be a naval battle.
  - jjk166 2y ago
    Very different circumstances. Ukraine was (and is) a very small economy literally right up against russia that had long been in Russia's sphere of influence if not under its direct control. Ukraine's fall would have had little meaningful impact on western powers other than losing some face in countering Russian aggression. Specifically to avoid losing that face, western leaders made it very clear from the get go that they would not step in to defend Ukraine, specifically so that they could conserve their strength in case they needed it against China. The universal assumption was that Russia, which was believed to have one of the most capable armies in the world would steamroll the Ukrainians and the country would fall in days if not hours. Only when the Russian advance stalled and it became clear that Ukraine with moderate support could hold out did the west start providing that support, and only after Ukraine made some impressive gains that demonstrated it could not only hold out but potentially drive the russians back did the west start sending serious aid. Conversely, Taiwan is extremely integrated into the global economy and is a key part of America's pacific power. We have been backing Taiwan for decades. Taiwan is an island, and one with very few appropriate landing sites, making its invasion extremely technically challenging for any power, even one with a strong navy. China, despite its recent shipbuilding spree, still lacks naval and amphibious combat experience, and it does not have anywhere near the fleet size necessary to fully leverage its army's main strengths. We are all freshly aware of lessons learned from Ukraine's invasion: that the strength on paper of countries like Russia and China do not correspond to force projection capability, that providing substantial aid early on is critical, and that modern military equipment is not so powerful as to collapse an otherwise functional country in hours. The amount of aid Taiwan needs is less, and the willingness to give it is greater. Only a major shift in US behavior would cause it to not support Taiwan.
- grey-area 2y ago
  Trump is now in charge of the US and admires Xi and his dictatorship. He’ll find an excuse not to intervene or even better will pay peacemaker and trumpet how his intervention saved millions of lives and stopped a war by capitulating to China and refusing Taiwan aid. As he is doing in Ukraine. Since Trump is in I’d expect invasion later this year or next. After invasion the people of Taiwan won’t be choosing anything.
  - themaninthedark 2y ago
    I get that it is easy to say that Trump admires dictators, he is such great friends with them, they have compromising information on him and he will allow them to do whatever they want, however, he was president before and during that time China did not invade Taiwan. Also during that time; Russia did not invade Ukraine.
    - ethbr1 2y ago
      Russia invaded Crimea the year before Trump took office, and he didn't do anything about it during his first term.
      - rendang 2y ago
        *Almost 3 years before Trump took office. Crimea was early 2014, inauguration was Jan 2017
    - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
      They did take Hong Kong during that time. It would've been pretty easy to point out that they were violating their agreements there, but he kept his mouth shut so they would sign his trade agreement. It's pretty clear who is wearing the pants in that relationship.
    - grey-area 2y ago
      It is a fact that he admires dictators, not sure why you feel the need to reframe it as ‘easy to say’? He has been useful to Putin already (‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” ) and will be again by pausing the disastrous invasion and refusing Ukraine aid. I can see him being similarly useful to Xi for similar reasons. China was not ready last decade they have been clearly preparing the last few years and now is the time to do so.
hnthrow90348765 2y ago
That's if we had a democratic president. We most certainly won't respond in the next 4 years to anything China or Russia does. The only thing they have to do for that benefit is not attack us directly.
- _heimdall 2y ago
  Why do you think the party allegiance will make a difference? I generally consider the republicans to be more likely to reach for military action, though the democrats have seemed pretty war hungry in the last decade or two as well.
  - HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
    Because one of them has a public bribe deposit box. China didn't buy all that $TRUMP coin by accident.
    - _heimdall 2y ago
      Trump is by far the first president with questionable foreign ties.
  - hnthrow90348765 2y ago
    >Why do you think the party allegiance will make a difference? I think I could replace "democratic president" with specifically Biden or Harris and would still believe the chance of military confrontation with them is "unlikely" unless directly attacked, but with Trump it is zero
- foldr 2y ago
  I agree that Trump makes a US military response less likely. But it’s still far from impossible.
vaccineai 2y ago
China reunifies Taiwan: 20% 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile systems, homegrown and from US. and once a ship is sunk near the landing, that then prevents other ship from landing, basically piling up ship corpses. US responds militarily: 70% 1.) Marco Rubio's first day on the job was to meet with AUKUS, which shows how important Asia and first island chain is 2.) Trump has said he would bomb China if China had occupied Taiwan under his presidency
- digitalscribe 2y ago
  Sorry, but most of this is uninformed gibberish. The PRC and its army (the PLA) have experienced nothing short of a breathtaking modernization for both the country and military. Most of the points raise are simply wrong. > 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which spends at least 2x more. > 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. China is one of the largest oil producers in its own right. It extracts around 4 million barrels a day. The rest is imported, but primarily used for cars -- China's industry and rail networks do not rely primarily on oil. Due to China's transition to electric vehicles, they may have hit peak imports of oil. During the US Gulf War, even with the tyranny of distance, the DoD used about 400k barrels a day: "Even during the peak of US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and “normal” training activities and force movements, the Defense Department’s daily average fuel use was nearly four hundred thousand barrels per day—an amount equal to slightly more than 10 percent of China’s domestic crude-oil output.38" [1] China produces about 4 MILLION barrels a day, which is 10x 400k barrels. Also, China would be fighting on the front door step. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. China has MULTIPLE TRILLION dollar funds. Did I say MULTIPLE? [2] Plus, there's the annual TRILLION dollar trade surplus. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil China imports a lot, but they are self-sufficiency on a caloric basis. The oil imports are primarily for cars. The country doesn't rely on oil for industry. 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile systems, homegrown and from US. and once a ship is sunk near the landing, that then prevents other ship from landing, basically piling up ship corpses. Read the Japanese government's assessment: "China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island, according to a Japanese government analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted last year." [3] [1] - https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1735&context=nwc-review https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl... [2] - https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Funds-Communist-Finances-Ambitions/dp/0674271912 https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Funds-Communist-Finances-Am... [3] - https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20240718-199364/ https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20...

China reunifies Taiwan: 100% US responds militarily: not likely but possible

by suraci 2y ago

China reunifies Taiwan: 100% US responds militarily: not likely but possible

The only way the US will not respond militarily is if Taiwan chooses unification. By all accounts, Taiwan will not choose that. The US military has not been strategically shifting to the Indo-Pacific for more than 10 years now for no reason.

lupusreal 2y ago
If China acted quickly in disabling American military assets in the region, it is conceivably possible that Taiwanese people could be demoralized and surrender to the PRC before America has a chance to muster more forces to the region. Even if this definitely wouldn't be possible, it's still possible that the PRC thinks otherwise and will try it, as Japan once did.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  Any Chinese move on Taiwan starts with plastering Guam. :(
- spacemanspiff01 2y ago
  The counter to this is that it might make more sense for China to _not_ attack the United States with the anticipation that they sit it out. China attacking US forces/ naval bases makes it much harder for a president to sit back and say not our problem/ focus on economic sanctions. Imagine if Russia started the invasion of Ukraine by bombing polish railways, so that the Ukrainians would not be able to get supplies/resources from the EU. I would think that the EU/Nato response to that would be much more severe than what happened in reality. While Guam might be considered different, as most Americans cannot place it on a map and it is on the other side of the world, seeing caskets of all the US troops dying makes it pretty hard to politically shrug off as not our problem.
  - ls612 2y ago
    The game theoretic problem with this scenario (and thus why a Pacific escalation scenario is so dangerous) is that China has essentially all of its forces in the area around China, whereas the US and its treaty allies have their forces scattered around the world. Thus even if the US has a bigger military most of it won't be in theater on day 1 of a conflict, leading China to have every incentive to move as fast as possible and present a fait accompli to the West. If they choose to just do nothing to the US and hope America sits it out, it just gives the US time to redress this force imbalance in the region by moving in assets from around the world. That leads China to be strongly incentivized to strike US forces on day 1, in much the same way the IJN was incentivized to strike early and strike hard 85 years ago.
    - jjk166 2y ago
      A naval invasion of Taiwan would be among the largest military operations in history, requiring immense preparation both to produce the necessary equipment and to move it into position, to say nothing of moving and training all the participating forces. In the era of satellite surveillance, the US would know months if not years in advance. They would almost certainly preposition forces in proximity both as a deterrent and as a potential response force. There's no comparing today's circumstances to a time when a carrier strike group could sneak up and launch a surprise attack on a US base.
      - lupusreal 2y ago
        Chinese naval assets, most particularly their large transports and landing craft, would be extremely vulnerable to antiship missiles. They're building those anyway, which suggests they have some sort of plan to use them after the antiship missile threat has been eliminated in the region. The most plausible way to accomplish that is to paralyze the American response by having Taiwan capitulate very fast, before the invasion actually takes place. Starting and finishing the war with the rapid destruction of key American military bases and surface assets (almost certainly using missiles, not a "sneaky carrier group") could shock Taiwan into a rapid capitulation, which in turn could neutralize (politically) the American fast attack subs that could otherwise decimate the vulnerable invasion fleet (which they are building, regardless of how little sense it makes to us.)
_heimdall 2y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if the response to an invasion of Taiwan looked very similar to the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The world did nothing for about a week and it seemed as though leaders were willing to sit on their hands for a week to see if it ended quickly. When it didn't they moved from vague, hand wavy statements to economic sanctions. If China tries to invade we very well could see a weak, hollow political response from world leaders unless China falters and is stopped initially.
- ethbr1 2y ago
  I don't think the world will accept a blockade of Taiwan in the event of an invasion. If there's a Chinese fleet or aircraft to the east of the island, there will be a naval battle.
- jjk166 2y ago
  Very different circumstances. Ukraine was (and is) a very small economy literally right up against russia that had long been in Russia's sphere of influence if not under its direct control. Ukraine's fall would have had little meaningful impact on western powers other than losing some face in countering Russian aggression. Specifically to avoid losing that face, western leaders made it very clear from the get go that they would not step in to defend Ukraine, specifically so that they could conserve their strength in case they needed it against China. The universal assumption was that Russia, which was believed to have one of the most capable armies in the world would steamroll the Ukrainians and the country would fall in days if not hours. Only when the Russian advance stalled and it became clear that Ukraine with moderate support could hold out did the west start providing that support, and only after Ukraine made some impressive gains that demonstrated it could not only hold out but potentially drive the russians back did the west start sending serious aid. Conversely, Taiwan is extremely integrated into the global economy and is a key part of America's pacific power. We have been backing Taiwan for decades. Taiwan is an island, and one with very few appropriate landing sites, making its invasion extremely technically challenging for any power, even one with a strong navy. China, despite its recent shipbuilding spree, still lacks naval and amphibious combat experience, and it does not have anywhere near the fleet size necessary to fully leverage its army's main strengths. We are all freshly aware of lessons learned from Ukraine's invasion: that the strength on paper of countries like Russia and China do not correspond to force projection capability, that providing substantial aid early on is critical, and that modern military equipment is not so powerful as to collapse an otherwise functional country in hours. The amount of aid Taiwan needs is less, and the willingness to give it is greater. Only a major shift in US behavior would cause it to not support Taiwan.
grey-area 2y ago
Trump is now in charge of the US and admires Xi and his dictatorship. He’ll find an excuse not to intervene or even better will pay peacemaker and trumpet how his intervention saved millions of lives and stopped a war by capitulating to China and refusing Taiwan aid. As he is doing in Ukraine. Since Trump is in I’d expect invasion later this year or next. After invasion the people of Taiwan won’t be choosing anything.
- themaninthedark 2y ago
  I get that it is easy to say that Trump admires dictators, he is such great friends with them, they have compromising information on him and he will allow them to do whatever they want, however, he was president before and during that time China did not invade Taiwan. Also during that time; Russia did not invade Ukraine.
  - ethbr1 2y ago
    Russia invaded Crimea the year before Trump took office, and he didn't do anything about it during his first term.
    - rendang 2y ago
      *Almost 3 years before Trump took office. Crimea was early 2014, inauguration was Jan 2017
  - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
    They did take Hong Kong during that time. It would've been pretty easy to point out that they were violating their agreements there, but he kept his mouth shut so they would sign his trade agreement. It's pretty clear who is wearing the pants in that relationship.
  - grey-area 2y ago
    It is a fact that he admires dictators, not sure why you feel the need to reframe it as ‘easy to say’? He has been useful to Putin already (‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” ) and will be again by pausing the disastrous invasion and refusing Ukraine aid. I can see him being similarly useful to Xi for similar reasons. China was not ready last decade they have been clearly preparing the last few years and now is the time to do so.

hnthrow90348765 2y ago

That's if we had a democratic president. We most certainly won't respond in the next 4 years to anything China or Russia does. The only thing they have to do for that benefit is not attack us directly.

_heimdall 2y ago
Why do you think the party allegiance will make a difference? I generally consider the republicans to be more likely to reach for military action, though the democrats have seemed pretty war hungry in the last decade or two as well.
- HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
  Because one of them has a public bribe deposit box. China didn't buy all that $TRUMP coin by accident.
  - _heimdall 2y ago
    Trump is by far the first president with questionable foreign ties.
- hnthrow90348765 2y ago
  >Why do you think the party allegiance will make a difference? I think I could replace "democratic president" with specifically Biden or Harris and would still believe the chance of military confrontation with them is "unlikely" unless directly attacked, but with Trump it is zero
foldr 2y ago
I agree that Trump makes a US military response less likely. But it’s still far from impossible.

vaccineai 2y ago

China reunifies Taiwan: 20% 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile systems, homegrown and from US. and once a ship is sunk near the landing, that then prevents other ship from landing, basically piling up ship corpses. US responds militarily: 70% 1.) Marco Rubio's first day on the job was to meet with AUKUS, which shows how important Asia and first island chain is 2.) Trump has said he would bomb China if China had occupied Taiwan under his presidency

digitalscribe 2y ago
Sorry, but most of this is uninformed gibberish. The PRC and its army (the PLA) have experienced nothing short of a breathtaking modernization for both the country and military. Most of the points raise are simply wrong. > 1.) too much corruption within the military. also no real war experience for 40 years China has corruption, yet is able to modernize and build up the military at a pace exceeding the USA's, which spends at least 2x more. > 2.) not enough oil to supply all the ships needed for invasion. look at how Russia's column of tanks failed in the early invasion of Ukraine. China is one of the largest oil producers in its own right. It extracts around 4 million barrels a day. The rest is imported, but primarily used for cars -- China's industry and rail networks do not rely primarily on oil. Due to China's transition to electric vehicles, they may have hit peak imports of oil. During the US Gulf War, even with the tyranny of distance, the DoD used about 400k barrels a day: "Even during the peak of US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and “normal” training activities and force movements, the Defense Department’s daily average fuel use was nearly four hundred thousand barrels per day—an amount equal to slightly more than 10 percent of China’s domestic crude-oil output.38" [1] China produces about 4 MILLION barrels a day, which is 10x 400k barrels. Also, China would be fighting on the front door step. 3.) China is broke and you need money for a war against US and Japan. China has MULTIPLE TRILLION dollar funds. Did I say MULTIPLE? [2] Plus, there's the annual TRILLION dollar trade surplus. 4.) China imports most of its food and oil China imports a lot, but they are self-sufficiency on a caloric basis. The oil imports are primarily for cars. The country doesn't rely on oil for industry. 5.) Taiwan has very advanced anti-ship missile systems, homegrown and from US. and once a ship is sunk near the landing, that then prevents other ship from landing, basically piling up ship corpses. Read the Japanese government's assessment: "China’s military has the capability to land ground forces on Taiwan within as little as one week after imposing a naval blockade on the island, according to a Japanese government analysis of Chinese military exercises conducted last year." [3] [1] - https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1735&context=nwc-review https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl... [2] - https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Funds-Communist-Finances-Ambitions/dp/0674271912 https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Funds-Communist-Finances-Am... [3] - https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20240718-199364/ https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20...