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The Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Trump Administration's Proposed Tariffs
- comex 2y ago[flagged]
- andrewflnr 2y agoHaha, for better or worse, linguistic skill pretty often doesn't correlate that strongly with other forms of intelligence.
- fungiblecog 2y agoNo, but intelligence usually correlates with attention to detail
- protimewaster 2y agoI'm gonna guess that the people doing the research for the report and the people updating the website aren't the same people.
- andrewflnr 2y agoTo be fair, the people specifically tasked with updating a website rather than doing macroeconomics research theoretically have spelling and other language skills as a much bigger part of their job. So maybe I was wrong about that part.
- mewpmewp2 2y agoDepends on the detail really. There is near infinite amount of detail in the World and limited amount of time. You really have to choose your battles carefully.
- incognition 2y agoJust say spelling
- andrewflnr 2y agoIf I meant spelling, I would have said it.
- WorkerBee28474 2y agoSome excerpts: > In the medium-to-long run, the size of the US economy is persistently 0.2% smaller in real terms under the package > The average effective tariff rate would rise by approximately 6.1-6.3 percentage points under the proposal, once consumers and businesses substituted towards domestic or non-tariffed imported goods. > The individual commodity with the largest price increase is natural gas. The average price rises 8.4% > Crude oil prices rise 1.1% in the long run. > Auto prices rise 3.9% on average,
- ortusdux 2y agoThanks for the summary. Did they factor in any of the recently announced retaliatory tariffs?
- incognition 2y agoAt the imminent level. The tariff rate can and likely will go up.
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- readthenotes1 2y agoHow did these peeps do predicting the effects of Trump's first round of tariffs back in 2018 (the ones Biden kept in place)?
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- walterbell 2y ago2023 review of Robert Lighthizer book, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/16/trump-trade-war-robert-lighthizer-china-economic-policy/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/16/trump-trade-war-robert-... > he proposes truly radical policy recommendations to delink the United States and China. He would hike tariffs to towering levels, end the benefits China has received from the United States for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), cut off investment between the nations, block Chinese social media companies, halt cooperation on technology—and keep the measures in place until China’s trade surplus, now nearly $400 billion, disappears. In other words, for decades if not forever.
- blackeyeblitzar 2y agoFiscal effects are what everyone focuses on, but tariffs have many other goals geopolitically. Those other goals include negotiations that may leave the economy better off than before.
- ojbyrne 2y agoOr worse off.
- downrightmike 2y agoYeah, no country is going to be like "You've been punching us in the face for the last four years, but anyway, how can I bend over backwards and help you???" Basically, the admin is using every known trick in the book to break the economy and the standing of the USA as a world power.
- protimewaster 2y agoWhose economy, though?
- dekerta 2y agoSo Trump's master plan is to renegotiate the free trade agreement that he already renegotiated during his last term? He obviously has no idea what he's doing. Is there even a point in signing treaties with the United States when you guys will just keep electing madmen that want to tear everything up every 4 years?
- RandomUser4976 2y agoTariffs as a negotiation tactic shows you can’t actually negotiate so instead you tax your own voters, you tax your own country and then act like you’re a big dog and a brilliant negotiator. It’s a joke. Any idiot can shoot their own foot. Trump is not playing 3D chess. Trump and many of his supporters don’t understand basic logic, economics, fiscal or monetary policy so they support Trump’s tariffs. Trump and many of his supporters think a trade deficit is bank account with a negative amount or is like running up a credit card. Morons. I have a trade deficit with my grocery store because I buy products from them and they buy nothing from me in return. Using Trump’s logic I should tax myself and pay more the the groceries because a trade deficit exists lol
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- caspper69 2y agoI would just like Trump to be honest with his supporters about what tariffs really are and what they entail. He repeatedly implies that these are fees that other countries will shoulder to “bring them into compliance.” The truth is (as I’m sure you all know) these are fees that we pay to the federal government separately when we import goods from these countries. Other countries don’t pay a dime. On top of that, supply chains don’t (or can’t) change at the drop of a hat. Large scale onshoring takes time and investment. So the reality for the average American is that the crippling inflation we’ve endured for the last 3 years is not going away, and we’re going to pay an extra 25% on top of it for the vast majority of our imported goods (which is basically everything nowadays). The thing I can’t figure out is if he really doesn’t know how tariffs work, or if he’s just a liar. Either way it doesn’t make him look good. And from any reasonable analysis I’ve seen, I just don’t understand how this is going to bring anything back home. It’s just going to raise prices and cause more suffering for those who can least afford it. But I think most people understand that it’s not actually about accomplishing any goal in particular or about solving any problem, it’s just a bro flex. Awesome. Your guy can flex. Congratulations. All your shit just went up 25%, so now you’re paying too. Elections have consequences, as they like to say.
- ojbyrne 2y agoI'm pretty sure his thinking is - say to every company that wants a break on the tariff - here, buy some $DJT, we'll take a look.
- bediger4000 2y agoWait, are you saying that a US president would take bribes?
- caspper69 2y agoNot directly. The only type of business relationship his feeble little mind understands is quid pro quo. He is incapable of nuance and is unfit to lead. This is a man who went broke more than once in the casino industry. He’s either stupid or corrupt, take your pick.
- downrightmike 2y agoPeople buy now and then wait = inflation. Then they don't buy in the future = stagnation.
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- blurbleblurble 2y agoThis is clearly designed to keep people busy worrying about their survival while Elon and them continue on with their hapless refactor.
- tivert 2y ago> This is clearly designed to keep people busy worrying about their survival while Elon and them continue on with their hapless refactor. Huh? Trump's not engaging in some conspiracy to protect Elon. He's always liked tariffs, and this is him doing what he believes. Cut it out with the weird conspiracy theories. They're not helpful.
- lawn 2y agoIt's not about Elon specifically but on the general dismantling of the government in general.
- xor-eax-eax 2y ago> He's always liked tariffs, and this is him doing what he believes. This maybe so, but he still doesn't understand who pays them or why his cronies like them so much. Tariffs transfer wealth from consumers to the government while simultaneously raising inflation. DOGE and friends want to privatize as much government as possible to extract money from it as a grift. Tariffs also hurt SMB sellers who cannot strategically front-load inventory like megacorps can. Furthermore, inflationary policies help out the 0.001% who can financialize weakening currencies while simultaneously making everything more expensive for ordinary people, effectively reducing average and unlivable wages to be even more unequal compared to the soon-to-be trillionaires. It's an ostensible nationalist/protectionist move that's cynically all about $$$$. The average American should anticipate paying $2000 more per year by the time 2026 rolls around for all of their expenditures... for absolutely nothing of value while not receiving a raise to account for it.
- blurbleblurble 2y agoHave you been paying attention to the kinds of things these people publicly say and do? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-hardship-economic-turmoil-and-a-stock-market-crash-if-trump-wins-20483008 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-... https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-admits-tariffs-might-cause-american-consumers-pain-rcna190403 https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-ad... Do you know who the vice president is and what ideology he subscribes to? One of his muses had an interview recently: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/magazine/curtis-yarvin-interview.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/magazine/curtis-yarvin-in... Then there's this faction, who have been blasting their ideas for decades but now have the trifecta of US government power: https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FUL...
- krashidov 2y agoEven if we put the costs associated with Tariffs aside, I feel like a big PITA with Tariffs is enforcing and regulating everything. Tariffs don't seem like smaller government. Or maybe I'm wrong and this is all pretty easy to enforce and regulate?
- ffsm8 2y agoTariffs should be one of the easiest to implement. The state is already involved with imports, it just adds another item to the import tax bill. Even the price is already set, as import tax is determined by a percentage too.
- Animats 2y agoThe biggest increase is in the price of natural gas. The US is a net exporter of natural gas. But the US imports from Canada to serve the northern US and exports to Mexico to serve northern Mexico.[1] So there's cross-border traffic for economic reasons. More pipelines could eliminate this. Texas flares off unwanted natural gas.[2] Tariffs will provide an incentive to collect that. But they won't be built if the tariffs aren't long-term. That's a more general problem. Manufacturing and extraction won't come back to the US unless businesses are convinced this is a long term change, not a bargaining point. This action was taken under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.[3] That's temporary, at least in theory. It's the most expansive use of the IEEPA ever. There will probably be court challenges. The challenges probably won't succeed.[4] [1] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/archive/analysis_publications/ngpipeline/impex_map.html https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/archive/analysis_publications... [2] https://today.tamu.edu/2020/08/03/the-problem-with-natural-gas-flaring/ https://today.tamu.edu/2020/08/03/the-problem-with-natural-g... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Emergency_Economic_Powers_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Emergency_Econom... [4] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45618 https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/r/r45618
- Animats 2y ago> Manufacturing and extraction won't come back to the US unless businesses are convinced this is a long term change, not a bargaining point. I wrote that yesterday. Today, "Trump pauses Mexico tariffs."[1] The Wall Street Journal is covering this heavily. Businesses have no idea what to do yet. WSJ article: "Trump’s Tariffs Usher In New Trade Wars. The Ultimate Goal Remains Unclear." For now, you can't go to a bank and borrow to expand your US plant that needs some tariff protection to be profitable. Too risky if policy changes. Can you insure against "Trump risk"? Hedge with futures? [1] https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-presidency-news-02-03-25/index.html https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-preside...
- defrost 2y agoWould anyone care to also vouch for Animats top level comment here ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42915372 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42915372 ) - I have as it appeared to be flagged dead for no good reason ( I suspect a super user might have fat fingered another intended action ). Seems bad form to kill a good faith comment made with effort, at least disagree or counter, etc.
- Jtsummers 2y agoI also vouched, but it's not [flagged] and it's weird because he's not been banned (check his history, dang is good about telling people he's banning them, especially people who have been on the site and active for years). I suspect he triggered one of the filters or something. EDIT: @defrost one of those links caused your comment to become [dead], I think it was the tamu one but I'm not certain. I did mail the mod about it though and Animats comment is live again. EDIT AGAIN: dang responded. It was the tamu.edu link, somehow that domain had ended up as a spam domain. Animats' comment had been restored by vouches.
- defrost 2y agoIt is weird - no obvious swear words, etc ... .. and none of the links appear to trigger a dead status. aaaannnd it's back. Odd. @Jtsummers - Interesting, I believe you, I didn't see it, it probably triggered a "shadow dead" condition.
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- lawn 2y agoAnd to no surprise, this interesting post about a new phenomena is flagged. HN needs a better way to protect against people who try to suppress stories about inconvenient truths. But maybe that's the point, so the tech-bros can continue to support the fascist government?
- apexalpha 2y agoI love how the US has already admitted it's weakness in this fight by not taxing energy products at the same level.
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- effingwewt 2y agoRecent times have made me ashamed of what this site has become. I'm with jaquesm- this is ridiculous. Tons of new accounts <1mo throwing the discourse out with the bath water and no one stopping them. HN has become the LA of websites. Y'all think everyone thinks like you and anyone who doesn't is just wrong. But when it all burns down and people are cheering you will be left wondering why. It has devolved and only gotten worse. I feel those of us who are more center have slowly but surely gone AFK and now all thats left are the two extremes. Comments flagged for absolutely no reason, the attacks- it even feels like dang has gone hands-off lately. Since Trump's election I've seen nothing but rule-breaking everywhere, and it has become absolutely rampant. I dont even come here for the comments anymore. yall can have the burning garbage heap this has become- it was a good run while it lasted.