12 ms·

Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

82 points by SirLJ 2y ago

Terr_ 2y ago
1. Don't worry, even if Canada retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from Mexico, and Canada will be left out in the cold, jealous of our success. 2. Don't worry, even if Mexico retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from China, leaving Mexico and Canada out in the cold, jealous of our success. 3. Don't worry, even if China retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from the EU, leaving China and Mexico and Canada out in the cold, jealous of our success. 4. Don't worry, even if the EU retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from... Hold up, what happened to our four biggest trading partners and over half of all the trade we were doing? Well, their loss. ... 96. Okay, Azerbaijan, you'd better give us a really good deal right now, or else we'll take our business to Turkmenistan, and you'll have nobody to trade with except basically everyone else!
- laverya 2y ago
  97. Well, I guess the US is one of the countries best able to implement Autarky today, so let's give it a try! Trade makes things more efficient. Trade gives access to resources not available otherwise. Trade allows greater economies of scale, and production efficiencies via comparative advantage. Trade is also not fundamentally necessary for the US in the way it is for essentially every other country on the planet, because the US is large enough, diverse enough, and resource rich enough to (with a fair bit of pain!) survive on our own. I do not think it will come to that, but it is true.
llm_nerd 2y ago
Canada was specifically warned not to retaliate in any manner, which is basically an acknowledgement that Canada has some powerful levers. This is farcical and of course Canada is going to retaliate. The $450B of American goods sold to Canada is going to collapse. The F35 purchase will be cancelled. Various other projects with the US will be abandoned. Oil will be export tariffed. Every American service -- Netflix, Disney, Prime, Apple services -- need to have enormous tariffs applied. We can handle without them, and every enabler of this insanity needs to suffer. Literally the single military threat Canada faces is an increasingly rogue and insane United States, so it's time to start a nuclear program again, which can be quickly completed. Which will cause Trump's various sprogs to write mean, threatening tweets, and for Trump to redouble again. This is going to spiral out of control very quickly. And for those not caught up, this has absolutely nothing to do with secure borders. Canada contributes a rounding error to US border problems, and the reverse is much more the case. Trump outright said there was nothing we could do. He truly thinks income tax can be replaced by tariffs, despite the latter being incredibly regressive, and the ridiculous fentanyl lie justifies his outrageous abuse of your country's limits of power, allowing him to invent an imaginary threat to push his agenda.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- polishdude20 2y ago
  I'm not sure if software services are part of this tarrif? Can anyone confirm?
  - tossandthrow 2y ago
    Traditionally it is not, but it can be, it is just doing it.
- Grosvenor 2y ago
  They could start a joint nuclear program with Ukraine. Canada has the Canadian shield which is rich in Uranium. Both Canada and Ukraine get nukes (Ukraine has a bridge that needs blowing up), Ukraine gets safety, Canada gets huge reputation gains in trade with Ukraine. NB: Ukraine will be the fastest growing western economy post war for at least a decade or two.
  - selimthegrim 2y ago
    Andrei Codrescu is spinning in place right about now.
  - Gunnerhead 2y ago
    Nukes for everyone yay! Hey Georgia is also under Russian threat, why don’t they also get a nuke or two? Then maybe their neighbor Armenia will think to themselves “why not me, I’m also under threat by an ex-Soviet country”? Then maybe Azerbaijan, then Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, everyone gets a nuke, I freaking love it! Then maybe other countries that got invaded by a bigger power like maybe Vietnam? Iraq? Why not!
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - Ekaros 2y ago
TheAlchemist 2y ago
What's the plan here ? Tariff war with all main trading partners ? According to Trump EU tariffs are coming in soon. US can win any tariff war against a single country. They maybe could win against China or EU or Canada / Mexico alone. But all of them at once ? This is going to be a disaster for the US. Because of current sky-high stock market valuations, US thinks it's the only game in town. We will soon see if it's the case. The tide is turning, and it's only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. US is in for a big surprise.
- pixl97 2y ago
  With things like tariffs on prescriptions, I guess get the population to riot then declare marshall law and just fully coup the US successfully this time.
- deeg 2y ago
  Trump has an infantile view of the economy. He seems to think that a trade deficit means the US is losing money, as if it was a business. If he can manufacturer a trade surplus then then he can do away with taxes. He also seems to believe that tariffs are paid by the foreign countries, not American consumers. It is unfathomable that people voted for this idiot.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - Terr_ 2y ago
    > as if it was a business Even among the folks who really do want to "run government like a business", the kinds of businesses they usually admire--large, publicly traded, with a CEO beholden to sharehodlers--are utterly different from the kind that Trump has inherited from his father. Only kind of government Trump's business experience has prepared him for is running North Korea: A lifetime CEO on top who can't be removed, the ability to fire anybody on a whim, and sneaky power struggles between the kids for who will inherit when the old man finally strokes out. ... He's going to do a lot of damage to America trying to twist it into working that way.
- 2y ago
A_D_E_P_T 2y ago
As I recently wrote on Cowen's blog, a lot of the electorate doesn't know how tariffs work. Say I manufacture a widget in [country]. At present, there is no manufacturer of that widget in the USA. We export to the USA, and now the US importer or distributor pays a ~25% tariff on the declared value to Fedgov. Then that US importer or distributor receives the widgets and sells them. Because its margin is down, it raises its price. Who paid first? The US business that imported the widgets. Who pays in the end? The US customer. Now say I manufacture some specialty aluminum rods in [country]. We export to a heatsink manufacturer in the US. As they need our rods, they pay the tariffs. Their product is now considerably more expensive and there's more friction in their supply chain. The only way this ends is with Americans paying more for goods. It could be a lot worse than routine inflation. The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first, and then utilize tariffs selectively. Right now, there's really no way around foreign inputs in manufacturing and/or wholly foreign-made goods, so there's going to be a lot of pain.
- llm_nerd 2y ago
  >The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first The US has basically "full employment" (the economic measure when more employment is inflationary). In a vacuum the idea that you're "bringing home the jobs" makes sense, but it makes zero sense when you simply don't have the capacity to build more. If Americans thought inflation was unacceptable under Biden, they're in for a real shock now. Americans have no idea how good they have it. They're the biggest consumer of goods on the planet, and basically want their cake and to eat it too. It doesn't work like that. And really, the US essentially has balanced trade with Canada, and if you exclude oil the US has a massive trade surplus with Canada. So when Canada and Mexico both "shore up" their own capabilities and stop buying the $1T of goods from the US, where does that leave the US? It enjoys a massive internal economy -- an irrationally large one -- but much of that is illusory and built on a myth. Liberal trade is the reason the US became the richest country on Earth. Trump thinks everything is easy and is about to crash it to the ground.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
ConspiracyFact 2y ago
Every article I’ve read on this contains some variation of the following: >Tariffs will only hurt American consumers >Countries targeted by tariffs will retaliate I think this speaks for itself…
- smnrchrds 2y ago
  I have never seen any article saying tariffs will "only" hurt American consumers. They hurt both sides and every article I have seen acknowledges this. However, American news sites tend to focus on the effects in the US, while Canadian news sites focus on the effects in Canada.
  - ConspiracyFact 2y ago
    I may have worded that wrong. Articles say that they will hurt American consumers and don’t address the actual purpose of the tariffs, which is to put political pressure on their targets. If the tariffs didn’t have at least some chance of succeeding at this, the targets wouldn’t be talking about retaliation.
    - nullhole 2y ago
      Targets talk about retaliation if they think the tariffs have some chance of succeeding, true. Targets also talk about retaliation if they think retaliation has a chance of succeeding.
      - ConspiracyFact 2y ago
        What?
        nullhole 2y ago
        There are two possible reactions to tariffs that you think will put political pressure on you. One is to retaliate. You only do this if you think you might win the trade war. Canada retaliated, and Canada thinks it might win the trade war. The other is to roll over. You only do this if you don't think you'll win the trade war. That's what Columbia did. Retaliation is a sign that the attack was strong, yes, but it's also a sign that the defence is strong.
3vidence 2y ago
Why is the American government so hell bent on destroying its own economy? The biggest things they import for Canada aren't even manufactured goods but raw materials. The only way to avoid the T tarrif at that point is to import from a different country but there are tarrifs there as well. What is even the end game here? Make China the new biggest game in town?
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- stevenwoo 2y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-trump-economy-hardship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-tru... They state they think the temporary pain to consumers and the loss of good will with Canada and Mexico is worth some other goal that will be achieved like they think this will cause American manufacturers to decide to expand in America, also they always talk about tax cuts and tariffs are a way to increase federal revenue without a change in the tax code. There's also the stated justification of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants from Canada and Mexico but the vast majority of both of those comes from Mexico with Chinese connections for some avenues of fentanyl so the Canada thing feels like it's a flimsy excuse to be included just for some bargaining on some other subject, or just to have an accomplishment, like how Trump in first term pushed for TikTok ban, then after winning 2024, Trump undoes ban he initiated in first term to claim that as an accomplishment. Versus say the border wall he promised in 2016 campaign but had a paltry result by 2020. It's like they think a factory or manufacturing plant can be spun up in a few weeks.
  - 3vidence 2y ago
    How do you spin up factories for crude oil and potash? America is just an unserious country right now.
    - stevenwoo 2y ago
      I didn't say I agreed with them, merely summarized what they said in 2024 campaign and speculated on other motivations. I think they are entirely serious in their other motivations, they are flooding the zone with actions listed in Project 2025, just doing as many executive actions as possible to keep opponents busy so some will stick.
maxglute 2y ago
Interesting times intensifies.
_DeadFred_ 2y ago
Imagine if every country does what Canada has and target specific states? If every country Trump goes after targets goods from the same few states they could devastate that state. Sure the US is bigger, but absolutely devastating just a few states economies could get some attention.
spacemanspiff01 2y ago
...
- therealpygon 2y ago
  Things make a lot more sense when you realize the benefits a recession has for the top 1% and will have for Trumps personal wealth. While yes, they will temporarily go through some pain in the form of a decrease in their net worth, a recession allows the rich to expand their businesses, consuming smaller businesses that are much harder hit by a recession and collecting their technology and markets for pennies. I don’t think there is a coincidence that all these billionaires are holding hands with Trump. It will also be a fantastic distraction as they convince people how this bill or that bill that quietly strips away your rights is going to be good for business and “bringing the economy back”. The goal is pretty simple and obvious… Beat The People with the stick until they can barely move, then offer them a carrot and a shackle.

82 points by SirLJ 2y ago

1. Don't worry, even if Canada retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from Mexico, and Canada will be left out in the cold, jealous of our success. 2. Don't worry, even if Mexico retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from China, leaving Mexico and Canada out in the cold, jealous of our success. 3. Don't worry, even if China retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from the EU, leaving China and Mexico and Canada out in the cold, jealous of our success. 4. Don't worry, even if the EU retaliates with their own tariffs, we'll just buy from... Hold up, what happened to our four biggest trading partners and over half of all the trade we were doing? Well, their loss. ... 96. Okay, Azerbaijan, you'd better give us a really good deal right now, or else we'll take our business to Turkmenistan, and you'll have nobody to trade with except basically everyone else!

laverya 2y ago
97. Well, I guess the US is one of the countries best able to implement Autarky today, so let's give it a try! Trade makes things more efficient. Trade gives access to resources not available otherwise. Trade allows greater economies of scale, and production efficiencies via comparative advantage. Trade is also not fundamentally necessary for the US in the way it is for essentially every other country on the planet, because the US is large enough, diverse enough, and resource rich enough to (with a fair bit of pain!) survive on our own. I do not think it will come to that, but it is true.

llm_nerd 2y ago

Canada was specifically warned not to retaliate in any manner, which is basically an acknowledgement that Canada has some powerful levers. This is farcical and of course Canada is going to retaliate. The $450B of American goods sold to Canada is going to collapse. The F35 purchase will be cancelled. Various other projects with the US will be abandoned. Oil will be export tariffed. Every American service -- Netflix, Disney, Prime, Apple services -- need to have enormous tariffs applied. We can handle without them, and every enabler of this insanity needs to suffer. Literally the single military threat Canada faces is an increasingly rogue and insane United States, so it's time to start a nuclear program again, which can be quickly completed. Which will cause Trump's various sprogs to write mean, threatening tweets, and for Trump to redouble again. This is going to spiral out of control very quickly. And for those not caught up, this has absolutely nothing to do with secure borders. Canada contributes a rounding error to US border problems, and the reverse is much more the case. Trump outright said there was nothing we could do. He truly thinks income tax can be replaced by tariffs, despite the latter being incredibly regressive, and the ridiculous fentanyl lie justifies his outrageous abuse of your country's limits of power, allowing him to invent an imaginary threat to push his agenda.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
polishdude20 2y ago
I'm not sure if software services are part of this tarrif? Can anyone confirm?
- tossandthrow 2y ago
  Traditionally it is not, but it can be, it is just doing it.
Grosvenor 2y ago
They could start a joint nuclear program with Ukraine. Canada has the Canadian shield which is rich in Uranium. Both Canada and Ukraine get nukes (Ukraine has a bridge that needs blowing up), Ukraine gets safety, Canada gets huge reputation gains in trade with Ukraine. NB: Ukraine will be the fastest growing western economy post war for at least a decade or two.
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  Andrei Codrescu is spinning in place right about now.
- Gunnerhead 2y ago
  Nukes for everyone yay! Hey Georgia is also under Russian threat, why don’t they also get a nuke or two? Then maybe their neighbor Armenia will think to themselves “why not me, I’m also under threat by an ex-Soviet country”? Then maybe Azerbaijan, then Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, everyone gets a nuke, I freaking love it! Then maybe other countries that got invaded by a bigger power like maybe Vietnam? Iraq? Why not!
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - Ekaros 2y ago

TheAlchemist 2y ago

What's the plan here ? Tariff war with all main trading partners ? According to Trump EU tariffs are coming in soon. US can win any tariff war against a single country. They maybe could win against China or EU or Canada / Mexico alone. But all of them at once ? This is going to be a disaster for the US. Because of current sky-high stock market valuations, US thinks it's the only game in town. We will soon see if it's the case. The tide is turning, and it's only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. US is in for a big surprise.

pixl97 2y ago
With things like tariffs on prescriptions, I guess get the population to riot then declare marshall law and just fully coup the US successfully this time.
deeg 2y ago
Trump has an infantile view of the economy. He seems to think that a trade deficit means the US is losing money, as if it was a business. If he can manufacturer a trade surplus then then he can do away with taxes. He also seems to believe that tariffs are paid by the foreign countries, not American consumers. It is unfathomable that people voted for this idiot.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- Terr_ 2y ago
  > as if it was a business Even among the folks who really do want to "run government like a business", the kinds of businesses they usually admire--large, publicly traded, with a CEO beholden to sharehodlers--are utterly different from the kind that Trump has inherited from his father. Only kind of government Trump's business experience has prepared him for is running North Korea: A lifetime CEO on top who can't be removed, the ability to fire anybody on a whim, and sneaky power struggles between the kids for who will inherit when the old man finally strokes out. ... He's going to do a lot of damage to America trying to twist it into working that way.
2y ago

A_D_E_P_T 2y ago

As I recently wrote on Cowen's blog, a lot of the electorate doesn't know how tariffs work. Say I manufacture a widget in [country]. At present, there is no manufacturer of that widget in the USA. We export to the USA, and now the US importer or distributor pays a ~25% tariff on the declared value to Fedgov. Then that US importer or distributor receives the widgets and sells them. Because its margin is down, it raises its price. Who paid first? The US business that imported the widgets. Who pays in the end? The US customer. Now say I manufacture some specialty aluminum rods in [country]. We export to a heatsink manufacturer in the US. As they need our rods, they pay the tariffs. Their product is now considerably more expensive and there's more friction in their supply chain. The only way this ends is with Americans paying more for goods. It could be a lot worse than routine inflation. The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first, and then utilize tariffs selectively. Right now, there's really no way around foreign inputs in manufacturing and/or wholly foreign-made goods, so there's going to be a lot of pain.

llm_nerd 2y ago
>The right way to go about things would be to shore up US manufacturing capabilities first The US has basically "full employment" (the economic measure when more employment is inflationary). In a vacuum the idea that you're "bringing home the jobs" makes sense, but it makes zero sense when you simply don't have the capacity to build more. If Americans thought inflation was unacceptable under Biden, they're in for a real shock now. Americans have no idea how good they have it. They're the biggest consumer of goods on the planet, and basically want their cake and to eat it too. It doesn't work like that. And really, the US essentially has balanced trade with Canada, and if you exclude oil the US has a massive trade surplus with Canada. So when Canada and Mexico both "shore up" their own capabilities and stop buying the $1T of goods from the US, where does that leave the US? It enjoys a massive internal economy -- an irrationally large one -- but much of that is illusory and built on a myth. Liberal trade is the reason the US became the richest country on Earth. Trump thinks everything is easy and is about to crash it to the ground.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago

ConspiracyFact 2y ago

Every article I’ve read on this contains some variation of the following: >Tariffs will only hurt American consumers >Countries targeted by tariffs will retaliate I think this speaks for itself…

smnrchrds 2y ago
I have never seen any article saying tariffs will "only" hurt American consumers. They hurt both sides and every article I have seen acknowledges this. However, American news sites tend to focus on the effects in the US, while Canadian news sites focus on the effects in Canada.
- ConspiracyFact 2y ago
  I may have worded that wrong. Articles say that they will hurt American consumers and don’t address the actual purpose of the tariffs, which is to put political pressure on their targets. If the tariffs didn’t have at least some chance of succeeding at this, the targets wouldn’t be talking about retaliation.
  - nullhole 2y ago
    Targets talk about retaliation if they think the tariffs have some chance of succeeding, true. Targets also talk about retaliation if they think retaliation has a chance of succeeding.
    - ConspiracyFact 2y ago
      What?
      - nullhole 2y ago
        There are two possible reactions to tariffs that you think will put political pressure on you. One is to retaliate. You only do this if you think you might win the trade war. Canada retaliated, and Canada thinks it might win the trade war. The other is to roll over. You only do this if you don't think you'll win the trade war. That's what Columbia did. Retaliation is a sign that the attack was strong, yes, but it's also a sign that the defence is strong.

3vidence 2y ago

Why is the American government so hell bent on destroying its own economy? The biggest things they import for Canada aren't even manufactured goods but raw materials. The only way to avoid the T tarrif at that point is to import from a different country but there are tarrifs there as well. What is even the end game here? Make China the new biggest game in town?

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
stevenwoo 2y ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-trump-economy-hardship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/elon-musk-tru... They state they think the temporary pain to consumers and the loss of good will with Canada and Mexico is worth some other goal that will be achieved like they think this will cause American manufacturers to decide to expand in America, also they always talk about tax cuts and tariffs are a way to increase federal revenue without a change in the tax code. There's also the stated justification of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants from Canada and Mexico but the vast majority of both of those comes from Mexico with Chinese connections for some avenues of fentanyl so the Canada thing feels like it's a flimsy excuse to be included just for some bargaining on some other subject, or just to have an accomplishment, like how Trump in first term pushed for TikTok ban, then after winning 2024, Trump undoes ban he initiated in first term to claim that as an accomplishment. Versus say the border wall he promised in 2016 campaign but had a paltry result by 2020. It's like they think a factory or manufacturing plant can be spun up in a few weeks.
- 3vidence 2y ago
  How do you spin up factories for crude oil and potash? America is just an unserious country right now.
  - stevenwoo 2y ago
    I didn't say I agreed with them, merely summarized what they said in 2024 campaign and speculated on other motivations. I think they are entirely serious in their other motivations, they are flooding the zone with actions listed in Project 2025, just doing as many executive actions as possible to keep opponents busy so some will stick.

maxglute 2y ago

Interesting times intensifies.

_DeadFred_ 2y ago

Imagine if every country does what Canada has and target specific states? If every country Trump goes after targets goods from the same few states they could devastate that state. Sure the US is bigger, but absolutely devastating just a few states economies could get some attention.

spacemanspiff01 2y ago

...

therealpygon 2y ago
Things make a lot more sense when you realize the benefits a recession has for the top 1% and will have for Trumps personal wealth. While yes, they will temporarily go through some pain in the form of a decrease in their net worth, a recession allows the rich to expand their businesses, consuming smaller businesses that are much harder hit by a recession and collecting their technology and markets for pennies. I don’t think there is a coincidence that all these billionaires are holding hands with Trump. It will also be a fantastic distraction as they convince people how this bill or that bill that quietly strips away your rights is going to be good for business and “bringing the economy back”. The goal is pretty simple and obvious… Beat The People with the stick until they can barely move, then offer them a carrot and a shackle.