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This is presented like it's a good thing, but it quite probably implies a local maximum in cultural abilities for a long time. How do experts become experts?

This is presented like it's a good thing, but it quite probably implies a local maximum in cultural abilities for a long time. How do experts become experts? Through time and practice. Many great photographers hone their skills or discover their talent when working at entry level and mid level positions - shooting portraits, etc. Most great musicians, bartenders, software engineers, etc. do the same. Without entry level/apprentice jobs the only other model is patronage from the rich, and that was never a good model even before today's rich largely abandoned the belief that they had a responsibility to contribute back to the society that allowed them to become rich. Without a pipeline of new talent, where will new state of the art come from? Where will more training data for the planet burners come from?

panarky 2y ago
It's a tool, and just like other tools, it multiplies human labor and intellect. I don't need to spend a decade becoming proficient with a pocket knife, and then another decade becoming an expert with an ax. Instead, an experienced person can show me how to be safe with a chainsaw in an afternoon. I won't be an expert with the chainsaw, that still takes many hours of experience, but I don't need the knife and ax prerequisites.
- add-sub-mul-div 2y ago
  The calculator has allowed anyone to do complex arithmetic while they're holding a calculator, required by a job or some other formal or necessary context. At the expense of retarding most people's ability to do everyday math at places like the grocery store, a context in which they won't have the wherewithal to pull out the tool. It has not increased intellect regarding anything but rote keypressed calculation.
  - idiotsecant 2y ago
    On the other hand, looking up trigonometric functions in a table to find precise answers is not a valuable human activity. Calculators keep you from having to do that.
    - blackbear_ 2y ago
      That's right! And what human activity do these AI tools replace? A calculator is only useful if you are able to put in the right formula, which means you still need to understand the problem and its solution. On the other hand, you lose the ability to verify that the solution is actually correct, beyond double checking that all your inputs are okay. And if your solution cannot be found through the operations supported by the calculator then you're just stuck and need to think of another way. Modern AI is much more advanced because users only need to ask questions. But that means people who rely too much on it will lose the ability to understand the solution. Or, even worse, they will never acquire that ability in the first place if they offload all intellectual tasks from primary school onwards to an AI. If people leave the thinking to an AI, they will lose the ability to think on their own. Of course responsible users can and will use AI to significantly boost their learning and capabilities, but the question is what will happen to society at large over long periods of time. If the dominant attitude is that only results and outcomes matter, then I think that we are heading towards an intellectual wasteland. And that is kind of the point. Tools both augment and limit human capabilities, so that we gradually forget what was before the tool existed. But a tool like AI could limit people's ability so much that we become collectively blind to its limitations. And that is exactly the local maximum of cultural development that started this thread of discussion.
    - abenga 2y ago
      Is using AI the equivalent of using a calculator to look up trigonometric function values, or outsourcing understanding what the functions are?
      - ben_w 2y ago
        Right now, more the former, but it depends. I'm an iOS dev. The better models exceed what I can learn about the operating system I develop for, in the same way that a trig function on a calculator exceeds the precision a human can memorise. (So do search engines, but they can't respond to natural language queries combined several topics at once). Because LLMs perform like juniors (sychophantic juniors with Alzheimer's), if you use them blindly without knowing the domain, that's still occasionally like picking random trig buttons because you don't know which of [sin, cos, tan] you wanted.
- Arainach 2y ago
  You can show someone how to safely use a chainsaw, but the people who build replacements for or better chainsaws often have worked building, repairing, and using those tools day in and day out. Education involves repeating things others have done, doing them wrong, and learning from that. When you give someone a tool which just gets the answer without having to understand why, you never have to build the mental model that lets you understand how things can be better. You see this in software: tools can let you build an app in a day, but if you just use those tools you will have no idea why your app is slower than it has to be or what other things are possible. When tools let everyone outsource their writing and even their thinking to machines, many of them are not "working faster" - they are skipping crucial steps and acting without understanding. Tools can allow many people to become moderately proficient rapidly, but when they are introduced immediately they can hinder the development of becoming incredibly proficient.
- whattheheckheck 2y ago
  But are we identifying what the new katas are with the new tools?
bostik 2y ago
I am surprised that "professional headshot" would be a task that can be outsourced to an AI. Even with the various filters available these days, how do you work around the need to actually have a professional grade kit? At a minimum I would expect you'd still need a professional lighting setup, a sturdy tripod, the right studio background, a good DSLR (or mirrorless), properly diffused, reflected and toned flash, and the skills to really work with RAW images to get the best possible output. And that's even before we include the skills and knowledge to guide their subject to just the right poses to get the subtle body language right. (Yes, the relative position of your spine and the stress you put on your upper body does affect how comfortable and confident you appear in the final shot. I know that now.) More than 20 years ago, my boss at the time recommended that I get a professional headshot. We were producing printed[ß] booklets as part of our marketing strategy, and I wrote occasional columns in them. He wanted to have the author's face attached to the pieces. He recommended that I pay for the service myself so that the photos would remain with me. If the company had paid for them, getting them into any other (read: off-work, post resignation) use would have been awkward, confusing and possibly a red flag for the accountant. One of the best investments I've ever made. I paid for three slightly varied versions, and used them actively for about a decade. As it happens, it might well be the time to get a fresh set. ß: an anachronism, no doubt
- ascorbic 2y ago
  There are a number of services that let you upload a few random photos of yourself and will then generate headshots based on them. They're not real photos though: they're just AI-generated. The quality is variable at best though, and many are either obviously AI-generated or don't look much like the person. They might be enough for some people, and they're certainly cheaper than the real thing.
- stockboss 2y ago
  the answer is - you don't need a professional grade kit. in the past, i used to have to pay more than $10 to take some physical photos designed specifically for passport dimensions. and then, ironically, i have to then scan it in to submit for a passport application. now? i download a free app with all the right settings that gives me instructions on how to take a proper passport photo, and then applies some filters to brighten it up, remove some imperfections on my face, etc and it looks every bit as good as any passport photo i've ever had. and it cost me $0.00. the delta in quality between "professional" shots with professional equipment, and smartphones with increasingly capable cameras and software is becoming so small for most everyday use purposes, that the professionals are going to find it very hard to justify their rates in the future.
idle_zealot 2y ago
> Most great musicians, bartenders, software engineers, etc. do the same. Without entry level/apprentice jobs the only other model is patronage from the rich Or, you know, school? Hobby work? Activities people would engage in of they weren't under threat of poverty or death should they fail to enter the workforce as soon as possible.
- throwaway290 2y ago
  > Activities people would engage in of they weren't under threat of poverty or death should they fail to enter the workforce as soon as possible. And this is going to change, because as jobs are lost business leaders will graciously volunteer to redistribute their wealth
  - idle_zealot 2y ago
    I wouldn't expect it to be gracious exactly, but it's that or... what? Mass indentured servitude? How else would you make a society function?
    - uhoh-itsmaciek 2y ago
      There's plenty of dystopian sci-fi out there with all sorts of ideas about that.
      - duggan 2y ago
        No need to look to fiction, various human societies were feudal for centuries.
        throwaway290 2y ago
        Tech makes it sci-fi though.
    - throwaway290 2y ago
      That's the question...
roenxi 2y ago
Typically when AI hits human capabilities they immediately overshoot and become superhuman. We're probably going to see a peak in our cultural abilities, both from AI directly and from humans having superhuman teachers to help them in their formative years. > ... that was never a good model even before today's rich largely abandoned the belief that they had a responsibility to contribute back to the society... And now to the meat. The rich never believed that! The evidence I've seen was that the patronage system was all about showing off how rich they were. My town ended up with a bunch of really nice churches because all the local landholders were purple-in-the-face having to put up with those damn other Catholics/Baptists/Anglicans/whatever families having nicer churches than they did. The economy is all about taking base human emotions and using them to power improvements regardless.
- Propelloni 2y ago
  Bear with me, I'm serious. When you say "Typically when AI hits human capabilities they immediately overshoot and become superhuman", what AI are you thinking of?
  - roenxi 2y ago
    What I've seen suggests that in absolute terms human intelligence is fairly low variability. Officially I refer to this chart [0]. Unofficially I'm usually thinking of AlphaGo as my reference. The Fan Hui version didn't look like it was as strong as the one that won against Lee Sedol, and that version was weak vs. what the AlphaGo team bought to bear a little later online. The sub- to super- human was remarkably fast. Given the rate of improvement of Stable Diffusion (v1 was amazing in context that it just wasn't possible before, but before around SD v3 I didn't feel like it followed the prompt at all - then Flux happened) I'd expect to see an AI system pumping out Pride and Prejudice-level works by the minute some time this decade and I have no idea what the future of art will be but I imagine pretty impressive. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/test-scores-ai-capabilities-relative-human-performance https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/test-scores-ai-capabiliti...
beefnugs 2y ago
Very good point. I am convinced the only variation of capitalism that can survive the future is a drastic change to always favouring underdog participants somehow. Specific skewing of rules to help new small businesses, personal choice tending toward local and smaller, government intervention against too big and subsidy for too small and just starting. (specifically not helping a failing dying business though) but of course all impossible, because would require social credit system that wasn't abused for evil, which is all that human coercion hierarchies know

panarky 2y ago

It's a tool, and just like other tools, it multiplies human labor and intellect. I don't need to spend a decade becoming proficient with a pocket knife, and then another decade becoming an expert with an ax. Instead, an experienced person can show me how to be safe with a chainsaw in an afternoon. I won't be an expert with the chainsaw, that still takes many hours of experience, but I don't need the knife and ax prerequisites.

add-sub-mul-div 2y ago
The calculator has allowed anyone to do complex arithmetic while they're holding a calculator, required by a job or some other formal or necessary context. At the expense of retarding most people's ability to do everyday math at places like the grocery store, a context in which they won't have the wherewithal to pull out the tool. It has not increased intellect regarding anything but rote keypressed calculation.
- idiotsecant 2y ago
  On the other hand, looking up trigonometric functions in a table to find precise answers is not a valuable human activity. Calculators keep you from having to do that.
  - blackbear_ 2y ago
    That's right! And what human activity do these AI tools replace? A calculator is only useful if you are able to put in the right formula, which means you still need to understand the problem and its solution. On the other hand, you lose the ability to verify that the solution is actually correct, beyond double checking that all your inputs are okay. And if your solution cannot be found through the operations supported by the calculator then you're just stuck and need to think of another way. Modern AI is much more advanced because users only need to ask questions. But that means people who rely too much on it will lose the ability to understand the solution. Or, even worse, they will never acquire that ability in the first place if they offload all intellectual tasks from primary school onwards to an AI. If people leave the thinking to an AI, they will lose the ability to think on their own. Of course responsible users can and will use AI to significantly boost their learning and capabilities, but the question is what will happen to society at large over long periods of time. If the dominant attitude is that only results and outcomes matter, then I think that we are heading towards an intellectual wasteland. And that is kind of the point. Tools both augment and limit human capabilities, so that we gradually forget what was before the tool existed. But a tool like AI could limit people's ability so much that we become collectively blind to its limitations. And that is exactly the local maximum of cultural development that started this thread of discussion.
  - abenga 2y ago
    Is using AI the equivalent of using a calculator to look up trigonometric function values, or outsourcing understanding what the functions are?
    - ben_w 2y ago
      Right now, more the former, but it depends. I'm an iOS dev. The better models exceed what I can learn about the operating system I develop for, in the same way that a trig function on a calculator exceeds the precision a human can memorise. (So do search engines, but they can't respond to natural language queries combined several topics at once). Because LLMs perform like juniors (sychophantic juniors with Alzheimer's), if you use them blindly without knowing the domain, that's still occasionally like picking random trig buttons because you don't know which of [sin, cos, tan] you wanted.
Arainach 2y ago
You can show someone how to safely use a chainsaw, but the people who build replacements for or better chainsaws often have worked building, repairing, and using those tools day in and day out. Education involves repeating things others have done, doing them wrong, and learning from that. When you give someone a tool which just gets the answer without having to understand why, you never have to build the mental model that lets you understand how things can be better. You see this in software: tools can let you build an app in a day, but if you just use those tools you will have no idea why your app is slower than it has to be or what other things are possible. When tools let everyone outsource their writing and even their thinking to machines, many of them are not "working faster" - they are skipping crucial steps and acting without understanding. Tools can allow many people to become moderately proficient rapidly, but when they are introduced immediately they can hinder the development of becoming incredibly proficient.
whattheheckheck 2y ago
But are we identifying what the new katas are with the new tools?

bostik 2y ago

I am surprised that "professional headshot" would be a task that can be outsourced to an AI. Even with the various filters available these days, how do you work around the need to actually have a professional grade kit? At a minimum I would expect you'd still need a professional lighting setup, a sturdy tripod, the right studio background, a good DSLR (or mirrorless), properly diffused, reflected and toned flash, and the skills to really work with RAW images to get the best possible output. And that's even before we include the skills and knowledge to guide their subject to just the right poses to get the subtle body language right. (Yes, the relative position of your spine and the stress you put on your upper body does affect how comfortable and confident you appear in the final shot. I know that now.) More than 20 years ago, my boss at the time recommended that I get a professional headshot. We were producing printed[ß] booklets as part of our marketing strategy, and I wrote occasional columns in them. He wanted to have the author's face attached to the pieces. He recommended that I pay for the service myself so that the photos would remain with me. If the company had paid for them, getting them into any other (read: off-work, post resignation) use would have been awkward, confusing and possibly a red flag for the accountant. One of the best investments I've ever made. I paid for three slightly varied versions, and used them actively for about a decade. As it happens, it might well be the time to get a fresh set. ß: an anachronism, no doubt

ascorbic 2y ago
There are a number of services that let you upload a few random photos of yourself and will then generate headshots based on them. They're not real photos though: they're just AI-generated. The quality is variable at best though, and many are either obviously AI-generated or don't look much like the person. They might be enough for some people, and they're certainly cheaper than the real thing.
stockboss 2y ago
the answer is - you don't need a professional grade kit. in the past, i used to have to pay more than $10 to take some physical photos designed specifically for passport dimensions. and then, ironically, i have to then scan it in to submit for a passport application. now? i download a free app with all the right settings that gives me instructions on how to take a proper passport photo, and then applies some filters to brighten it up, remove some imperfections on my face, etc and it looks every bit as good as any passport photo i've ever had. and it cost me $0.00. the delta in quality between "professional" shots with professional equipment, and smartphones with increasingly capable cameras and software is becoming so small for most everyday use purposes, that the professionals are going to find it very hard to justify their rates in the future.

idle_zealot 2y ago

> Most great musicians, bartenders, software engineers, etc. do the same. Without entry level/apprentice jobs the only other model is patronage from the rich Or, you know, school? Hobby work? Activities people would engage in of they weren't under threat of poverty or death should they fail to enter the workforce as soon as possible.

throwaway290 2y ago
> Activities people would engage in of they weren't under threat of poverty or death should they fail to enter the workforce as soon as possible. And this is going to change, because as jobs are lost business leaders will graciously volunteer to redistribute their wealth
- idle_zealot 2y ago
  I wouldn't expect it to be gracious exactly, but it's that or... what? Mass indentured servitude? How else would you make a society function?
  - uhoh-itsmaciek 2y ago
    There's plenty of dystopian sci-fi out there with all sorts of ideas about that.
    - duggan 2y ago
      No need to look to fiction, various human societies were feudal for centuries.
      - throwaway290 2y ago
        Tech makes it sci-fi though.
  - throwaway290 2y ago
    That's the question...

roenxi 2y ago

Typically when AI hits human capabilities they immediately overshoot and become superhuman. We're probably going to see a peak in our cultural abilities, both from AI directly and from humans having superhuman teachers to help them in their formative years. > ... that was never a good model even before today's rich largely abandoned the belief that they had a responsibility to contribute back to the society... And now to the meat. The rich never believed that! The evidence I've seen was that the patronage system was all about showing off how rich they were. My town ended up with a bunch of really nice churches because all the local landholders were purple-in-the-face having to put up with those damn other Catholics/Baptists/Anglicans/whatever families having nicer churches than they did. The economy is all about taking base human emotions and using them to power improvements regardless.

Propelloni 2y ago
Bear with me, I'm serious. When you say "Typically when AI hits human capabilities they immediately overshoot and become superhuman", what AI are you thinking of?
- roenxi 2y ago
  What I've seen suggests that in absolute terms human intelligence is fairly low variability. Officially I refer to this chart [0]. Unofficially I'm usually thinking of AlphaGo as my reference. The Fan Hui version didn't look like it was as strong as the one that won against Lee Sedol, and that version was weak vs. what the AlphaGo team bought to bear a little later online. The sub- to super- human was remarkably fast. Given the rate of improvement of Stable Diffusion (v1 was amazing in context that it just wasn't possible before, but before around SD v3 I didn't feel like it followed the prompt at all - then Flux happened) I'd expect to see an AI system pumping out Pride and Prejudice-level works by the minute some time this decade and I have no idea what the future of art will be but I imagine pretty impressive. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/test-scores-ai-capabilities-relative-human-performance https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/test-scores-ai-capabiliti...

beefnugs 2y ago

Very good point. I am convinced the only variation of capitalism that can survive the future is a drastic change to always favouring underdog participants somehow. Specific skewing of rules to help new small businesses, personal choice tending toward local and smaller, government intervention against too big and subsidy for too small and just starting. (specifically not helping a failing dying business though) but of course all impossible, because would require social credit system that wasn't abused for evil, which is all that human coercion hierarchies know