4 ms·

if only they were ever so slightly less afraid of nuclear reactors.

twothreeone 2y ago
Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California [2]. I think the problem is more likely to be a world-wide trough in demand (Germany famously relies mainly on exports), combined with the fact that wages have practically been stagnating for the past 20 years [3]. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gaspreis-erneuerbare-energien-ausbau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gas... [2] https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ [3] Sum all entries in the left column, you'll get 0: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloehne-Nettoverdienste/Tabellen/reallohnentwicklung-quartal.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloeh...
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  > Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California California isn't the world's factory - precisely because it has bad energy policy (if you want cheap energy - i.e. you're a factory).
  - twothreeone 2y ago
    The US economy is famously more than 65% domestic demand driven, and according to [1] California is the state with the most manufacturing in the entire US. So it is absolutely a huge factory. [1] https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-manufacturing https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-man... > California stands as the center for manufacturing output in the United States with over 35,000 manufacturing firms and employing over 1.2 million Californians. Since California supplanted New York in 1965, our manufacturing firms have created new industries and supplied the world with manufactured goods spanning aerospace, computers and electronics, and, most recently, zero emission vehicles. from [2] https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/ https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/
    - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
      Manufacturing is ~10% of GDP in California: https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-manufacturing-facts/#:~:text=Manufacturers%20in%20California%20account%20for,employing%207.57%25%20of%20the%20workforce. https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-man... California is only the largest manufacturer because it's BY FAR the largest state economy. Manufacturing was ~20% of German GDP (down to 18.5%): https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-add... If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs).
      - twothreeone 2y ago
        > If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs). That's correct, but what you describe is an intentional continuation of the general trend of transitioning from secondary to tertiary sector, which has been on-going for several decades. Absent any major disasters or wars I suspect it will taper off at a level only slightly higher than California in percentage of GDP in the long term (40-60 years).
nine_k 2y ago
I'm afraid that even if the construction were expedited to the highest possible degree, a new nuclear power plant would take 5-6 years to go online. If only they had been ever so slightly more friendly towards nuclear reactors, not the France or Korea level, of course, but still. And maybe trusted Mr Putin a tad less. 2022 was a wake-up moment, but 2014 and even 2008 were rather clearly audible signals. Alas...
einrealist 2y ago
I am glad that we are afraid. The real costs (no subsidies, fuel, waste and dismantling fully paid by owner) of nuclear are just too high. Hinkley Point in the UK is a warning. Investments are far more effective in solar, wind and storage capabilities. Market prices reflect that very well already.
- nine_k 2y ago
  How many places are there with solar + wind providing the baseload capacity? I'm all in favor of solar and wind power. But they need batteries to be useful around the clock. The batteries are $100 / kWh, and this number dwarfs the cost of solar installations proper.
  - einrealist 2y ago
    Storage capacity has to be built along with solar and wind parks. Its already happening. But more investments are required ("more effective" than nuclear). And the electric grid must be decentralized further to accommodate decentralized storage (from your wall-box at home to industrial storage facilities). And it must not stop at borders. Regenerative energy already surpassed all other means of energy production in 2024: https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieversorgung_2024_Final.pdf#page=26 https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieve... Battery prices are declining for some time now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-vehicle-battery-packs-see-biggest-price-drop-since-2017?srnd=phx-hyperdrive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-... And even larger storage capabilities are built: https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-groesster-batteriespeicher-deutschlands-entsteht-in-der-oberlausitz https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-g... (I am actually working for a grid operator)
    - yodelshady 2y ago
      No it doesn't and it isn't. If you're working for a grid operator tell me how many TWh you need to sustain a 1-in-20 - A 1-in-goddamn-20 - dunkelflaute in a single large European nation, multiplied by cost of storage. Not the "decline", the absolute cost, and what percentage of GDP it would be. Compare and contrast to military expenditure at a time of near-war. I also know these numbers.
nradov 2y ago
Nuclear power is great for clean, safe electricity generation. But it can't really substitute for natural gas as an industrial feedstock and heat source, which is why much of the German chemicals industry is moving to places like Ohio.

Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California [2]. I think the problem is more likely to be a world-wide trough in demand (Germany famously relies mainly on exports), combined with the fact that wages have practically been stagnating for the past 20 years [3]. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gaspreis-erneuerbare-energien-ausbau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gas... [2] https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ [3] Sum all entries in the left column, you'll get 0: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloehne-Nettoverdienste/Tabellen/reallohnentwicklung-quartal.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloeh...

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California California isn't the world's factory - precisely because it has bad energy policy (if you want cheap energy - i.e. you're a factory).
- twothreeone 2y ago
  The US economy is famously more than 65% domestic demand driven, and according to [1] California is the state with the most manufacturing in the entire US. So it is absolutely a huge factory. [1] https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-manufacturing https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-man... > California stands as the center for manufacturing output in the United States with over 35,000 manufacturing firms and employing over 1.2 million Californians. Since California supplanted New York in 1965, our manufacturing firms have created new industries and supplied the world with manufactured goods spanning aerospace, computers and electronics, and, most recently, zero emission vehicles. from [2] https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/ https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    Manufacturing is ~10% of GDP in California: https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-manufacturing-facts/#:~:text=Manufacturers%20in%20California%20account%20for,employing%207.57%25%20of%20the%20workforce. https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-man... California is only the largest manufacturer because it's BY FAR the largest state economy. Manufacturing was ~20% of German GDP (down to 18.5%): https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-add... If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs).
    - twothreeone 2y ago
      > If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs). That's correct, but what you describe is an intentional continuation of the general trend of transitioning from secondary to tertiary sector, which has been on-going for several decades. Absent any major disasters or wars I suspect it will taper off at a level only slightly higher than California in percentage of GDP in the long term (40-60 years).

nine_k 2y ago

I'm afraid that even if the construction were expedited to the highest possible degree, a new nuclear power plant would take 5-6 years to go online. If only they had been ever so slightly more friendly towards nuclear reactors, not the France or Korea level, of course, but still. And maybe trusted Mr Putin a tad less. 2022 was a wake-up moment, but 2014 and even 2008 were rather clearly audible signals. Alas...

einrealist 2y ago

I am glad that we are afraid. The real costs (no subsidies, fuel, waste and dismantling fully paid by owner) of nuclear are just too high. Hinkley Point in the UK is a warning. Investments are far more effective in solar, wind and storage capabilities. Market prices reflect that very well already.

nine_k 2y ago
How many places are there with solar + wind providing the baseload capacity? I'm all in favor of solar and wind power. But they need batteries to be useful around the clock. The batteries are $100 / kWh, and this number dwarfs the cost of solar installations proper.
- einrealist 2y ago
  Storage capacity has to be built along with solar and wind parks. Its already happening. But more investments are required ("more effective" than nuclear). And the electric grid must be decentralized further to accommodate decentralized storage (from your wall-box at home to industrial storage facilities). And it must not stop at borders. Regenerative energy already surpassed all other means of energy production in 2024: https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieversorgung_2024_Final.pdf#page=26 https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieve... Battery prices are declining for some time now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-vehicle-battery-packs-see-biggest-price-drop-since-2017?srnd=phx-hyperdrive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-... And even larger storage capabilities are built: https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-groesster-batteriespeicher-deutschlands-entsteht-in-der-oberlausitz https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-g... (I am actually working for a grid operator)
  - yodelshady 2y ago
    No it doesn't and it isn't. If you're working for a grid operator tell me how many TWh you need to sustain a 1-in-20 - A 1-in-goddamn-20 - dunkelflaute in a single large European nation, multiplied by cost of storage. Not the "decline", the absolute cost, and what percentage of GDP it would be. Compare and contrast to military expenditure at a time of near-war. I also know these numbers.

nradov 2y ago

Nuclear power is great for clean, safe electricity generation. But it can't really substitute for natural gas as an industrial feedstock and heat source, which is why much of the German chemicals industry is moving to places like Ohio.