4 ms·

Germany: Number of unemployed highest in 10 years

55 points by rntn 2y ago

suddenlybananas 2y ago
if only they were ever so slightly less afraid of nuclear reactors.
- twothreeone 2y ago
  Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California [2]. I think the problem is more likely to be a world-wide trough in demand (Germany famously relies mainly on exports), combined with the fact that wages have practically been stagnating for the past 20 years [3]. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gaspreis-erneuerbare-energien-ausbau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gas... [2] https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ [3] Sum all entries in the left column, you'll get 0: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloehne-Nettoverdienste/Tabellen/reallohnentwicklung-quartal.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloeh...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    > Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California California isn't the world's factory - precisely because it has bad energy policy (if you want cheap energy - i.e. you're a factory).
    - twothreeone 2y ago
      The US economy is famously more than 65% domestic demand driven, and according to [1] California is the state with the most manufacturing in the entire US. So it is absolutely a huge factory. [1] https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-manufacturing https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-man... > California stands as the center for manufacturing output in the United States with over 35,000 manufacturing firms and employing over 1.2 million Californians. Since California supplanted New York in 1965, our manufacturing firms have created new industries and supplied the world with manufactured goods spanning aerospace, computers and electronics, and, most recently, zero emission vehicles. from [2] https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/ https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/
      - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
        Manufacturing is ~10% of GDP in California: https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-manufacturing-facts/#:~:text=Manufacturers%20in%20California%20account%20for,employing%207.57%25%20of%20the%20workforce. https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-man... California is only the largest manufacturer because it's BY FAR the largest state economy. Manufacturing was ~20% of German GDP (down to 18.5%): https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-add... If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs).
        twothreeone 2y ago
        > If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs). That's correct, but what you describe is an intentional continuation of the general trend of transitioning from secondary to tertiary sector, which has been on-going for several decades. Absent any major disasters or wars I suspect it will taper off at a level only slightly higher than California in percentage of GDP in the long term (40-60 years).
- nine_k 2y ago
  I'm afraid that even if the construction were expedited to the highest possible degree, a new nuclear power plant would take 5-6 years to go online. If only they had been ever so slightly more friendly towards nuclear reactors, not the France or Korea level, of course, but still. And maybe trusted Mr Putin a tad less. 2022 was a wake-up moment, but 2014 and even 2008 were rather clearly audible signals. Alas...
- einrealist 2y ago
  I am glad that we are afraid. The real costs (no subsidies, fuel, waste and dismantling fully paid by owner) of nuclear are just too high. Hinkley Point in the UK is a warning. Investments are far more effective in solar, wind and storage capabilities. Market prices reflect that very well already.
  - nine_k 2y ago
    How many places are there with solar + wind providing the baseload capacity? I'm all in favor of solar and wind power. But they need batteries to be useful around the clock. The batteries are $100 / kWh, and this number dwarfs the cost of solar installations proper.
    - einrealist 2y ago
      Storage capacity has to be built along with solar and wind parks. Its already happening. But more investments are required ("more effective" than nuclear). And the electric grid must be decentralized further to accommodate decentralized storage (from your wall-box at home to industrial storage facilities). And it must not stop at borders. Regenerative energy already surpassed all other means of energy production in 2024: https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieversorgung_2024_Final.pdf#page=26 https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieve... Battery prices are declining for some time now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-vehicle-battery-packs-see-biggest-price-drop-since-2017?srnd=phx-hyperdrive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-... And even larger storage capabilities are built: https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-groesster-batteriespeicher-deutschlands-entsteht-in-der-oberlausitz https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-g... (I am actually working for a grid operator)
      - yodelshady 2y ago
        No it doesn't and it isn't. If you're working for a grid operator tell me how many TWh you need to sustain a 1-in-20 - A 1-in-goddamn-20 - dunkelflaute in a single large European nation, multiplied by cost of storage. Not the "decline", the absolute cost, and what percentage of GDP it would be. Compare and contrast to military expenditure at a time of near-war. I also know these numbers.
- nradov 2y ago
  Nuclear power is great for clean, safe electricity generation. But it can't really substitute for natural gas as an industrial feedstock and heat source, which is why much of the German chemicals industry is moving to places like Ohio.
Cumpiler69 2y ago
[flagged]
casenmgreen 2y ago
Taxes are high, spending has risen from Putin's invasion, energy is more expensive. Less money for investment, less work, more unemployment. On the face of it, stopping the invasion before it happened was extremely important, and a missed opportunity.
nine_k 2y ago
The page does not open for me directly; see https://archive.is/93mRQ https://archive.is/93mRQ The scoop: «The unemployment rate rose by 0.4% since December to 6.4%, the preliminary figures show. That meant the number of unemployed people in the country was 187,000 higher than in January 2024, reaching a total of 2.993 million, the agency reported.»
- mtmail 2y ago
  From the linked source: January 2024 was 6.1%
AnotherGoodName 2y ago
Seems like a non-story. Highest X in 10years in a country just isn’t that interesting folks, nor is it that long of a timespan. It’s also seemingly been brigaded by immediate comments all along the same lines all posted in under a minute of each other.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
ratchetcoding 2y ago
While I agree with the other comments, that expensive energy is making it difficult for industry in Germany to continue thriving, I think it is not the root cause. The main problem I perceive (as German in Germany, but I see it all over Europe) is weak leadership. Our current chancellor was pretty much universally perceived as a weak leader. Our ruling politicians have resorted to unambitious projects and smallest common denominator compromises. Germany could have become a global leader in green technology, we had all the ingredients. But in the end we were afraid to make a full commitment, investments were promised then cancelled, laws were promised then not passed, etc. This flip-flopping has made it difficult for industries to make reliable plans and to invest in new technology. Everybody knew there was a high likelihood Trump would be back and that would mean America first again. We had 8 years to prepare. We did nothing and now again we are surprised he is in power and complain about the effects on Europe. We had 8 years to make ourselves more independent of his political games, we did nothing. I feel like none of our current big parties have a real vision and strategy for the next 10, 20, 30 years. We are just drifting along hoping it will turn out alright In the end I think this search for strong leadership is the reason many people are turning to right-leaning if not straight up neonazi parties. The good news is, the potential is still there. We have a well educated population, energy prices are coming down, our industry is still world leading in many places we just need to use our knowledge and power to become a serious player in this multipolar world again
- ost-ing 2y ago
  As one of the most industrialized countries on the planet, it still blows me away how backwards it actually is. As a small business owner in electronics manufacturing, I have decided not to incorporate a GmbH. It’s not worth the hassle. There is bureaucratic rot everywhere and the number of regulations is only increasing. Even trying to export products outside of the EU past 1000 EUR incurs unnecessary processes that have costs and delays. Why? Then you have this progressive righteousness that has fuelled deindustrialization in Germany which is simply insane, and the fact that political leaders entertain this nonsense is dangerous. Germany missed the mark so heavily and it will cost decades.
  - 2y ago
tchalla 2y ago
Germany’s economic model is broken [0], weak consumer confidence [1] and 3 consecutive years of recession looms [2]. IMF puts it the best “Germany’s Real Challenges are Aging, Underinvestment, and Too Much Red Tape” [3]. It’s easier however to blame nuclear power (I do believe nuclear would help but too much emphasis) and immigrants (many of whom without which Germany would be in further crisis). Then, Germany will wonder why parties like AfD are having a major say in the parliament. [0] https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germany-economic-model-broken-exports-095a488d https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germany-economic-model-bro... [1] https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-german-consumer-confidence-dashes-hopes-of-rebound-at-start-of-2025-17fb2b48 https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-german-consumer-confidence-... [2] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2025-economic-growth-forecast-lowered/a-71446935 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2025-economic-growth-forecast-... [3] https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-real-challenges-are-aging-underinvestment-and-too-much-red-tape https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-rea...
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  Interesting take. The government hasn't put out numbers how many job losses are tied directly to energy prices - but there's hundreds of articles like: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/basf-cut-jobs-energy-crisis-germany-recession https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/basf-cut-jo... Also, immigrants are unemployed at a higher rate than non-immigrants (7% higher for recent immigrants: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1606.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1606.pdf). I imagine this has little impact on the non-immigrant population - but it is a contributor to why total unemployment is rising (the headline).
  - trueismywork 2y ago
    Germany is in a weird state. On one hand, it really does have vacancies for jobs, On other hand it has onerous beaurcraric red tape which doesn't allow immigrants (extremely capable, not just refugees) to do those jobs mostly due to language but also other things. It seems to have created this dilemna for themselves.
analog31 2y ago
What I wonder is whether the problem affects regular people to the point where conditions are worse than in the US. Sure, being unemployed is bad, but it's not necessarily a death sentence if a country has decent health care and a social safety net.
ofrzeta 2y ago
Here's an article (German, sorry) about Stihl (chainsaws) threatening to leave Germany https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/stihl-saegenhe https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/stihl-saegenhe... For me what he says doesn't make a lot of sense. For instance he threatens to go to the Swiss who, he even concedes, has higher wages. Also he complains about too much regulation while he concedes that it is a EU thing. Then he says construction costs in Germany are so high. I have a hard time imagining that construction costs in the Swiss are lower than in Germany.
- pjmlp 2y ago
  They certainly aren't, and if there is something Switzerland is known for, are high costs, red tape and regulations.

55 points by rntn 2y ago

suddenlybananas 2y ago

if only they were ever so slightly less afraid of nuclear reactors.

twothreeone 2y ago
Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California [2]. I think the problem is more likely to be a world-wide trough in demand (Germany famously relies mainly on exports), combined with the fact that wages have practically been stagnating for the past 20 years [3]. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gaspreis-erneuerbare-energien-ausbau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-strompreis-gas... [2] https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ https://www.energysage.com/local-data/electricity-cost/ca/ [3] Sum all entries in the left column, you'll get 0: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloehne-Nettoverdienste/Tabellen/reallohnentwicklung-quartal.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloeh...
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  > Actually kWh price is around 30 cents [1], which is similar to e.g. California California isn't the world's factory - precisely because it has bad energy policy (if you want cheap energy - i.e. you're a factory).
  - twothreeone 2y ago
    The US economy is famously more than 65% domestic demand driven, and according to [1] California is the state with the most manufacturing in the entire US. So it is absolutely a huge factory. [1] https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-manufacturing https://www.industryselect.com/blog/top-10-us-states-for-man... > California stands as the center for manufacturing output in the United States with over 35,000 manufacturing firms and employing over 1.2 million Californians. Since California supplanted New York in 1965, our manufacturing firms have created new industries and supplied the world with manufactured goods spanning aerospace, computers and electronics, and, most recently, zero emission vehicles. from [2] https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/ https://business.ca.gov/industries/manufacturing/
    - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
      Manufacturing is ~10% of GDP in California: https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-manufacturing-facts/#:~:text=Manufacturers%20in%20California%20account%20for,employing%207.57%25%20of%20the%20workforce. https://nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2021-california-man... California is only the largest manufacturer because it's BY FAR the largest state economy. Manufacturing was ~20% of German GDP (down to 18.5%): https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-value-add... If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs).
      - twothreeone 2y ago
        > If you keep having higher energy than the rest of Europe and the world - you'll keep shrinking your manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (and manufacturing jobs). That's correct, but what you describe is an intentional continuation of the general trend of transitioning from secondary to tertiary sector, which has been on-going for several decades. Absent any major disasters or wars I suspect it will taper off at a level only slightly higher than California in percentage of GDP in the long term (40-60 years).
nine_k 2y ago
I'm afraid that even if the construction were expedited to the highest possible degree, a new nuclear power plant would take 5-6 years to go online. If only they had been ever so slightly more friendly towards nuclear reactors, not the France or Korea level, of course, but still. And maybe trusted Mr Putin a tad less. 2022 was a wake-up moment, but 2014 and even 2008 were rather clearly audible signals. Alas...
einrealist 2y ago
I am glad that we are afraid. The real costs (no subsidies, fuel, waste and dismantling fully paid by owner) of nuclear are just too high. Hinkley Point in the UK is a warning. Investments are far more effective in solar, wind and storage capabilities. Market prices reflect that very well already.
- nine_k 2y ago
  How many places are there with solar + wind providing the baseload capacity? I'm all in favor of solar and wind power. But they need batteries to be useful around the clock. The batteries are $100 / kWh, and this number dwarfs the cost of solar installations proper.
  - einrealist 2y ago
    Storage capacity has to be built along with solar and wind parks. Its already happening. But more investments are required ("more effective" than nuclear). And the electric grid must be decentralized further to accommodate decentralized storage (from your wall-box at home to industrial storage facilities). And it must not stop at borders. Regenerative energy already surpassed all other means of energy production in 2024: https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieversorgung_2024_Final.pdf#page=26 https://www.bdew.de/media/documents/2024_12_18_Die_Energieve... Battery prices are declining for some time now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-vehicle-battery-packs-see-biggest-price-drop-since-2017?srnd=phx-hyperdrive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/electric-... And even larger storage capabilities are built: https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-groesster-batteriespeicher-deutschlands-entsteht-in-der-oberlausitz https://standort-sachsen.de/de/aktuelles/news/detail/n1474-g... (I am actually working for a grid operator)
    - yodelshady 2y ago
      No it doesn't and it isn't. If you're working for a grid operator tell me how many TWh you need to sustain a 1-in-20 - A 1-in-goddamn-20 - dunkelflaute in a single large European nation, multiplied by cost of storage. Not the "decline", the absolute cost, and what percentage of GDP it would be. Compare and contrast to military expenditure at a time of near-war. I also know these numbers.
nradov 2y ago
Nuclear power is great for clean, safe electricity generation. But it can't really substitute for natural gas as an industrial feedstock and heat source, which is why much of the German chemicals industry is moving to places like Ohio.

Cumpiler69 2y ago

[flagged]

casenmgreen 2y ago

Taxes are high, spending has risen from Putin's invasion, energy is more expensive. Less money for investment, less work, more unemployment. On the face of it, stopping the invasion before it happened was extremely important, and a missed opportunity.

nine_k 2y ago

The page does not open for me directly; see https://archive.is/93mRQ https://archive.is/93mRQ The scoop: «The unemployment rate rose by 0.4% since December to 6.4%, the preliminary figures show. That meant the number of unemployed people in the country was 187,000 higher than in January 2024, reaching a total of 2.993 million, the agency reported.»

mtmail 2y ago
From the linked source: January 2024 was 6.1%

AnotherGoodName 2y ago

Seems like a non-story. Highest X in 10years in a country just isn’t that interesting folks, nor is it that long of a timespan. It’s also seemingly been brigaded by immediate comments all along the same lines all posted in under a minute of each other.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

ratchetcoding 2y ago

While I agree with the other comments, that expensive energy is making it difficult for industry in Germany to continue thriving, I think it is not the root cause. The main problem I perceive (as German in Germany, but I see it all over Europe) is weak leadership. Our current chancellor was pretty much universally perceived as a weak leader. Our ruling politicians have resorted to unambitious projects and smallest common denominator compromises. Germany could have become a global leader in green technology, we had all the ingredients. But in the end we were afraid to make a full commitment, investments were promised then cancelled, laws were promised then not passed, etc. This flip-flopping has made it difficult for industries to make reliable plans and to invest in new technology. Everybody knew there was a high likelihood Trump would be back and that would mean America first again. We had 8 years to prepare. We did nothing and now again we are surprised he is in power and complain about the effects on Europe. We had 8 years to make ourselves more independent of his political games, we did nothing. I feel like none of our current big parties have a real vision and strategy for the next 10, 20, 30 years. We are just drifting along hoping it will turn out alright In the end I think this search for strong leadership is the reason many people are turning to right-leaning if not straight up neonazi parties. The good news is, the potential is still there. We have a well educated population, energy prices are coming down, our industry is still world leading in many places we just need to use our knowledge and power to become a serious player in this multipolar world again

ost-ing 2y ago
As one of the most industrialized countries on the planet, it still blows me away how backwards it actually is. As a small business owner in electronics manufacturing, I have decided not to incorporate a GmbH. It’s not worth the hassle. There is bureaucratic rot everywhere and the number of regulations is only increasing. Even trying to export products outside of the EU past 1000 EUR incurs unnecessary processes that have costs and delays. Why? Then you have this progressive righteousness that has fuelled deindustrialization in Germany which is simply insane, and the fact that political leaders entertain this nonsense is dangerous. Germany missed the mark so heavily and it will cost decades.
- 2y ago

tchalla 2y ago

Germany’s economic model is broken [0], weak consumer confidence [1] and 3 consecutive years of recession looms [2]. IMF puts it the best “Germany’s Real Challenges are Aging, Underinvestment, and Too Much Red Tape” [3]. It’s easier however to blame nuclear power (I do believe nuclear would help but too much emphasis) and immigrants (many of whom without which Germany would be in further crisis). Then, Germany will wonder why parties like AfD are having a major say in the parliament. [0] https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germany-economic-model-broken-exports-095a488d https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germany-economic-model-bro... [1] https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-german-consumer-confidence-dashes-hopes-of-rebound-at-start-of-2025-17fb2b48 https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-german-consumer-confidence-... [2] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2025-economic-growth-forecast-lowered/a-71446935 https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2025-economic-growth-forecast-... [3] https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-real-challenges-are-aging-underinvestment-and-too-much-red-tape https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/27/germanys-rea...

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
Interesting take. The government hasn't put out numbers how many job losses are tied directly to energy prices - but there's hundreds of articles like: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/basf-cut-jobs-energy-crisis-germany-recession https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/24/basf-cut-jo... Also, immigrants are unemployed at a higher rate than non-immigrants (7% higher for recent immigrants: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1606.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1606.pdf). I imagine this has little impact on the non-immigrant population - but it is a contributor to why total unemployment is rising (the headline).
- trueismywork 2y ago
  Germany is in a weird state. On one hand, it really does have vacancies for jobs, On other hand it has onerous beaurcraric red tape which doesn't allow immigrants (extremely capable, not just refugees) to do those jobs mostly due to language but also other things. It seems to have created this dilemna for themselves.

analog31 2y ago

What I wonder is whether the problem affects regular people to the point where conditions are worse than in the US. Sure, being unemployed is bad, but it's not necessarily a death sentence if a country has decent health care and a social safety net.

ofrzeta 2y ago

Here's an article (German, sorry) about Stihl (chainsaws) threatening to leave Germany https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/stihl-saegenhe https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/stihl-saegenhe... For me what he says doesn't make a lot of sense. For instance he threatens to go to the Swiss who, he even concedes, has higher wages. Also he complains about too much regulation while he concedes that it is a EU thing. Then he says construction costs in Germany are so high. I have a hard time imagining that construction costs in the Swiss are lower than in Germany.

pjmlp 2y ago
They certainly aren't, and if there is something Switzerland is known for, are high costs, red tape and regulations.