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The simplest explanation, Jevons paradox is cope from CEOs and retail investors trying to justify the share market. People seem to have forgotten that there’s
by aunty_helen 2y ago
The simplest explanation, Jevons paradox is cope from CEOs and retail investors trying to justify the share market.
People seem to have forgotten that there’s a time element involved, not a perfectly elastic and instant demand.
Thinking about it another way, if it turned out it was going to cost 30x more compute to train the next generation of models than we thought due to some scaling law, would the chip share prices be expected to rise, stay the same or go down? Probably rise.
In that case, if it was 30x cheaper to do what we need today would we expect option a, b or c?
Assuming that there would be less short / mid term sales, that impacts their bottom line and flattens off their (ie nvda) demand curve. Slower growth, lower share price. Slower growth, longer opportunity for competition. Therefore the speculative element of the chip leader’s share price’s should come down.
I don’t have any long or short positions in the chip sector.
- suraci 2y agothe money must be happened, otherwise shit will happen it's like we are spending 500bn for x ai needs, but suddenly, the cost fell to 1/20, now we must convince everybody there'll be x20 needs, so that the 500bn will not go missing that is what Satya Nadella and Sam Altman are trying to achieve the real problem: 1. will there be 20x needs for ai? 2. how much ai needs are priced now? x? 5x? or, 20x?
- aurareturn 2y agoCompanies compete against each other - not themselves. It’s not like OpenAI set an internal goal of training 30x bigger and that’s it. No, OpenAI needs to compete. If training efficiency is 30x more, then Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Mistral, Qwen, etc all get the benefit. It resets the baseline. They will not stop competing against each other just because there is a 30x efficiency improvement that everyone has access to.