4 ms·

Realistically, the programs that are likely to be trimmed are hugely expensive things like the F35 program, which the newly-promoted tech class would to a large

by smcin 2y ago

Realistically, the programs that are likely to be trimmed are hugely expensive things like the F35 program, which the newly-promoted tech class would to a large extent replace with drones (land- or carrier-based) [0]. We might expect to see a civil war within the admin between the factions who favor traditional defense hardware programs vs newer tech (drones, AI, autonomous). There's a lot of $ at stake so there will be heavy lobbying. Also, the traditional revolving door. Also the opportunity for insiders to enrich themselves. Perhaps 2025 will be to defense and AI stocks what 2020/1 was to pharma and vaccine stocks. One political self-preservation mechanism that traditional defense has done that tech hasn't yet much is to spread the federal spending around across states and congressional districts (think B-1 bomber). So, don't expect these battles to be fought on the merits, let alone net benefit to the taxpayer. [0]: "The F-35 Program is Costing More and Doing Less, GAO Says" https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/04/19/the-f-35-program-is-costing-more-and-doing-less-gao-says/ https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2024/04/19/the-f-35-pr...

nradov 2y ago
There are no drones available today or even on the drawing board which can perform even a fraction of the F-35 mission set. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-A_aF7lpm4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-A_aF7lpm4
- smcin 2y ago
  Irrelevant. Noone said "cancel the F35 program", and noone said it can be totally replaced. The F35 program is running over-budget, so it's entirely reasonable to look at some cost reductions on the $2 trillion. (The current admin said they were looking for trillion-dollar cost savings by this April, and laying off the entire federal workforce wouldn't going to do that.) The choice is not a binary "100% of all the F35s currently budgeted, or no F35 program at all". You can get thousands of suicide drones for the equivalent price of one F-35A ($80m). Both Ukraine and Russia are using these daily. (Obviously they don't have a fraction of the capabilities of an F35.) The Houthis interdicted the Red Sea to commercial shipping in 2024. This is asymmetric: the US Navy couldn't afford to keep shooting down cheap Houthi drones with $2m missiles ("cost exchange ratio"). This is costing billions in economic damage. [0][1] Another obstacle to where the F35 can't be deployed is the US blocks deploying leading-edge technology to some allies, for multiple reasons (espionage, lack of training, geopolitical), so such conflicts will determine which mix of drones or missile systems or F16s (yes, generations older) are more cost-effective. [0]: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/07/houthi-yemen-defense-iran-airstrikes-00173096 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/07/houthi-yemen-defens... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/dp-world-says-sea-freight-prices-could-fall-20-if-red-sea-attacks-curbed-2025-01-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/dp-wor...
  - nradov 2y ago
    Irrelevant. The military is retooling to fight China. Cheap suicide drones like what are being used in Ukraine lack the range and sensors necessary to be relevant in the Pacific theater. Funding for the F-35 program will not be cut; if anything it will increase.
    - smcin 2y ago
      Still irrelevant to my comment that you replied to; it belongs in a separate thread. Noone suggested cheap suicide drones can replace the F-35 in general. I did point out that the military has a weak spot in economic asymmetric warfare using drones against it. This has been manifesting for over a year now, with commercial shipping in the Red Sea/Suez. You're quite aware of that. The military has more than one mission, and air(/sea/satellite) superiority with China in a hypothetical Taiwan war is not the only scenario. > Funding for the F-35 program will not be cut; if anything it will increase. Clearly the tech lobby's interests compete with traditional defense contractors. Supposedly they are now competing for the same (possibly shrinking) overall defense appropriations. If that is not the case, then defense spending will continue to bloat.

by smcin 2y ago

nradov 2y ago

There are no drones available today or even on the drawing board which can perform even a fraction of the F-35 mission set. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-A_aF7lpm4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-A_aF7lpm4

smcin 2y ago
Irrelevant. Noone said "cancel the F35 program", and noone said it can be totally replaced. The F35 program is running over-budget, so it's entirely reasonable to look at some cost reductions on the $2 trillion. (The current admin said they were looking for trillion-dollar cost savings by this April, and laying off the entire federal workforce wouldn't going to do that.) The choice is not a binary "100% of all the F35s currently budgeted, or no F35 program at all". You can get thousands of suicide drones for the equivalent price of one F-35A ($80m). Both Ukraine and Russia are using these daily. (Obviously they don't have a fraction of the capabilities of an F35.) The Houthis interdicted the Red Sea to commercial shipping in 2024. This is asymmetric: the US Navy couldn't afford to keep shooting down cheap Houthi drones with $2m missiles ("cost exchange ratio"). This is costing billions in economic damage. [0][1] Another obstacle to where the F35 can't be deployed is the US blocks deploying leading-edge technology to some allies, for multiple reasons (espionage, lack of training, geopolitical), so such conflicts will determine which mix of drones or missile systems or F16s (yes, generations older) are more cost-effective. [0]: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/07/houthi-yemen-defense-iran-airstrikes-00173096 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/07/houthi-yemen-defens... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/dp-world-says-sea-freight-prices-could-fall-20-if-red-sea-attacks-curbed-2025-01-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/dp-wor...
- nradov 2y ago
  Irrelevant. The military is retooling to fight China. Cheap suicide drones like what are being used in Ukraine lack the range and sensors necessary to be relevant in the Pacific theater. Funding for the F-35 program will not be cut; if anything it will increase.
  - smcin 2y ago
    Still irrelevant to my comment that you replied to; it belongs in a separate thread. Noone suggested cheap suicide drones can replace the F-35 in general. I did point out that the military has a weak spot in economic asymmetric warfare using drones against it. This has been manifesting for over a year now, with commercial shipping in the Red Sea/Suez. You're quite aware of that. The military has more than one mission, and air(/sea/satellite) superiority with China in a hypothetical Taiwan war is not the only scenario. > Funding for the F-35 program will not be cut; if anything it will increase. Clearly the tech lobby's interests compete with traditional defense contractors. Supposedly they are now competing for the same (possibly shrinking) overall defense appropriations. If that is not the case, then defense spending will continue to bloat.