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If I can write an email from my small and cheap phone why would I buy that big mainframe? The chips to do the job become cheap. The high end chips will become a
by thefounder 2y ago
If I can write an email from my small and cheap phone why would I buy that big mainframe? The chips to do the job become cheap. The high end chips will become a niche again for research and mil. stuff.
- IshKebab 2y agoBecause the big mainframe will write a much better email?
- thefounder 2y agoIt looks like that’s not the case anymore. That’s what this is all about.
- senko 2y agoIt still is. The DeepSeek R1 is 670B parameters, requiring more than 300GB of video ram (or unified memory), even if using 4-bit quantized models.
- amazingamazing 2y agoHow much video RAM was needed for similar performance a year ago?
- senko 2y agoRoughly the same, as our collective goalposts have shifted, and are still shifting. What was amazing output last year is today's slop. NV is in no immediate danger; medium/long term, to anyone knowing what "75% gross margin" means it's no secret that there will be serious threats. You don't need DeepSeek for that particular realization.
- amazingamazing 2y agoWhich open source model last January gave you similar results with the same amount of video ram?
- talldayo 2y agoNomic Falcon, Mixtral, YALM, Bloom, Grok-1 and Jamba, just to name a few of the foundation models.
- DannyBee 2y agoThat only works until it's good enough that nobody cares about the difference.
- IshKebab 2y agoThat will only happen when we have AGI and at that point the world has much bigger problems.
- DannyBee 2y agoThis is definitely one view, but not sure I buy it at all. History is littered with things that were made orders of magnitude better, people who claimed nobody would be happy until that happened, and then nobody writ large cared . Tech in particular has a grand history of claiming we need to produce the technically best thing, but in practice, the market almost always chooses somewhere in the range of useful products, which is not the same at all - the technically best thing has rarely, if ever, become the market leader.
- wongarsu 2y agoBut if both the mainframe and personal computer are from IBM, is that scenario really bad for them? If there was serious competition for cards to do GPU training that might spell trouble for Nvidia. But so far we only went from needing an absurdly huge cluster of Nvidia cards to a huge cluster of Nvidia cards, with Nvidia having a near-monopoly on cards used in deep-learning training all the way down to networks that fit on single cards.