3 ms·
It's not a CISCO moment, more like a "Wavelength-division multiplexing" [1] moment of 2000 where the fiber optic craze was over capacity and crashed, causing a
by alecco 2y ago
It's not a CISCO moment, more like a "Wavelength-division multiplexing" [1] moment of 2000 where the fiber optic craze was over capacity and crashed, causing a lot of "Dark Fibre" [2] left around. Deepseek found a way to squeeze more out of the same hardware, heck a key point is how to do more with the bandwidth bottleneck also with BI-DIRECTIONAL MULTIPLEXING [3] :)
Most of the biggest Nvidia clients are valued on speculation of future revenue from their closed models (secret sauce). Deepseek is fully open source so those revenue expectations crashed and investors are having second thoughts on throwing more money at companies like OpenAI. And this hits the expected sales growth of Nvidia for the next few years.
Dark fibre eventually was used but it took many years. And it was bought for cheap by companies like Google and CloudFlare.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wavelength-division_multiplexing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wavelength-division_multiplexi...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_fibre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_fibre
[3] https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1 https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1 (3.2.1DualPipe and Computation-Communication Overlap)
- red-iron-pine 2y ago> more like a "Wavelength-division multiplexing" no joke, the hype around DWDM is why I got into networking -- waves are the future, man!
- mrandish 2y agoYeah, I also have made the "right move" industry or tech-wise but for the wrong reason (I'm assuming being in advanced networking worked out pretty well anyway for you). It's always funny when someone asks me "So how did you know so far ahead of everyone else [that (my startup's product) would launch (category)]", and I tell them it's because we were inexperienced and didn't fully understand the market, so we guessed based on assumptions which turned out to be wrong. I try to always fess up to the fact that success in tech startups is a combination of insanely hard work, being (mostly) smart, luck, and being stubborn enough to keep trying again after failing until your luck turns.
- savorypiano 2y agoThe key thing is that it's actually both, and the market is still in waiting to see mode even after a 20% dump. AI end applications are not growing fast enough, and compute costs may be crashing down.