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What do you prefer ? Letting DeepSeek and China lead the AI war ? DeepSeek R1 is a big wake up call https://open.substack.com/pub/transitions/p/deepseek-is-comi

by fsndz 2y ago

What do you prefer ? Letting DeepSeek and China lead the AI war ? DeepSeek R1 is a big wake up call https://open.substack.com/pub/transitions/p/deepseek-is-coming-for-openais-neck?r=56ql7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/transitions/p/deepseek-is-comi...

otabdeveloper4 2y ago
> What do you prefer ? Letting DeepSeek and China lead the AI war ? Me personally? Yes.
mppm 2y ago
From what I've read about DeepSeek and its founder, I would very much prefer them, even with China factored in. At least if these particular Four Horsemen are the only alternative. On a tangential note, those who wish to frame this as the start of the great AI war with China (in which they regrettably may be right), should seriously consider the possibility of coming out on the losing end. China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think.
- corimaith 2y ago
  >China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think. So those who framing this are correct and that we should matching their momentum here asap?
  - mppm 2y ago
    No, I was rather pointing out that getting into an altercation that you are likely (even if not guaranteed) to lose may not be the smartest of ideas. On occasion, humans have been known to fruitfully engage in cooperation and de-escalation. Please pardon my naive optimism.
    - lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago
      "Great AI war with China", "altercation" are excessively harsh characterizations. There is nothing "escalatory" in competing for leadership in new industries with other states, nor should it be "regrettable". No one, to my knowledge, is planning to nuke DeepSeek data centers or something.
      - mppm 2y ago
        I wish I could agree with you. But have you read Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" [1]? I am very much afraid that the big decision makers in AI do in fact think in those terms, and do not in any way frame this as fair competition for the benefit of all. 1. https://situational-awareness.ai/ https://situational-awareness.ai/
        lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago
        A person heavily invested in this wave of AI succeeding saying AI will be big and we will have AGI next year? Sure. I don't think there is much point of reading the whole thing after the following: "Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them. Nvidia analysts still think 2024 might be close to the peak. Mainstream pundits are stuck on the willful blindness of “it’s just predicting the next word”."
bayindirh 2y ago
Us vs. Them. My favorite perspective [0]. Regarding to your question, yes. I'd prefer a healthy counterbalance to what we have currently. Ideally, I'd prefer cooperation. A worldwide cooperation. [0]: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AiI9_XIAA67_t.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AiI9_XIAA67_t.jpg
- andy_ppp 2y ago
  Arguably the cooperation between the US and China has lead to the most economic growth and prosperity in human history, it's a shame the US and China are returning to a former time.
- rpastuszak 2y ago
  Treating the world as a bunch of football teams is a great distraction though.
vbezhenar 2y ago
China is much more peaceful nation compared to US. So, yes, I'd prefer China leading AI research any day. They are interested in mutual trade and prosperity, they respect local laws and culture, all unlike US.
- jbaiter 2y ago
  "They respect local laws and culture" - I think people from Xinyang probably have a very different perspective on that........
  - anthk 2y ago
    If you had AlQaeda in a hypothetical region near Florida with almost two-yearly terror attacks, you would shit bricks and create jails/prisons with more security than the Pentagon itself.
  - Octoth0rpe 2y ago
    I think there's a more nuanced version of this: China respects local laws and culture _outside of what they view as China_ more than the US does. It's also worth noting that China's policy in Xinjiang is somewhat narrowly targeted at religion, and less other aspects like cuisine or clothing. That said, religion is nigh impossible to separate from the broader idea of culture in much of the world.
    - lupire 2y ago
      Africa and South America and USA strongly disagree.
    - Analemma_ 2y ago
      Give me a break. China has overseas police stations as bases of operation for harassing ex-pats and dissidents. That's not "respecting local laws and culture".
      - whimsicalism 2y ago
smeeger 2y ago
the outcome would be exactly the same. AGI leads the human race off of a cliff, not in the direction of one human interest group vs another. the only difference would be that it was china that was responsible for the extinction if the human race rather than another country. i would prefer to die with dignity… the outcome we should all be advocating for is a global halt of AI research — not because it would be easy but because there is no other option.
whimsicalism 2y ago
we need to cooperate and put aside our petty politicking right now. the potential downsides of ‘racing’ without building a safety scaffold are catastrophic.

by fsndz 2y ago

otabdeveloper4 2y ago

> What do you prefer ? Letting DeepSeek and China lead the AI war ? Me personally? Yes.

mppm 2y ago

From what I've read about DeepSeek and its founder, I would very much prefer them, even with China factored in. At least if these particular Four Horsemen are the only alternative. On a tangential note, those who wish to frame this as the start of the great AI war with China (in which they regrettably may be right), should seriously consider the possibility of coming out on the losing end. China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think.

corimaith 2y ago
>China has tremendous industrial momentum, and is not nearly as incapable of leading-edge innovation as some Americans seem to think. So those who framing this are correct and that we should matching their momentum here asap?
- mppm 2y ago
  No, I was rather pointing out that getting into an altercation that you are likely (even if not guaranteed) to lose may not be the smartest of ideas. On occasion, humans have been known to fruitfully engage in cooperation and de-escalation. Please pardon my naive optimism.
  - lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago
    "Great AI war with China", "altercation" are excessively harsh characterizations. There is nothing "escalatory" in competing for leadership in new industries with other states, nor should it be "regrettable". No one, to my knowledge, is planning to nuke DeepSeek data centers or something.
    - mppm 2y ago
      I wish I could agree with you. But have you read Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" [1]? I am very much afraid that the big decision makers in AI do in fact think in those terms, and do not in any way frame this as fair competition for the benefit of all. 1. https://situational-awareness.ai/ https://situational-awareness.ai/
      - lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago
        A person heavily invested in this wave of AI succeeding saying AI will be big and we will have AGI next year? Sure. I don't think there is much point of reading the whole thing after the following: "Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them. Nvidia analysts still think 2024 might be close to the peak. Mainstream pundits are stuck on the willful blindness of “it’s just predicting the next word”."

bayindirh 2y ago

Us vs. Them. My favorite perspective [0]. Regarding to your question, yes. I'd prefer a healthy counterbalance to what we have currently. Ideally, I'd prefer cooperation. A worldwide cooperation. [0]: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AiI9_XIAA67_t.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_AiI9_XIAA67_t.jpg

andy_ppp 2y ago
Arguably the cooperation between the US and China has lead to the most economic growth and prosperity in human history, it's a shame the US and China are returning to a former time.
rpastuszak 2y ago
Treating the world as a bunch of football teams is a great distraction though.

vbezhenar 2y ago

China is much more peaceful nation compared to US. So, yes, I'd prefer China leading AI research any day. They are interested in mutual trade and prosperity, they respect local laws and culture, all unlike US.

jbaiter 2y ago
"They respect local laws and culture" - I think people from Xinyang probably have a very different perspective on that........
- anthk 2y ago
  If you had AlQaeda in a hypothetical region near Florida with almost two-yearly terror attacks, you would shit bricks and create jails/prisons with more security than the Pentagon itself.
- Octoth0rpe 2y ago
  I think there's a more nuanced version of this: China respects local laws and culture _outside of what they view as China_ more than the US does. It's also worth noting that China's policy in Xinjiang is somewhat narrowly targeted at religion, and less other aspects like cuisine or clothing. That said, religion is nigh impossible to separate from the broader idea of culture in much of the world.
  - lupire 2y ago
    Africa and South America and USA strongly disagree.
  - Analemma_ 2y ago
    Give me a break. China has overseas police stations as bases of operation for harassing ex-pats and dissidents. That's not "respecting local laws and culture".
    - whimsicalism 2y ago

smeeger 2y ago

the outcome would be exactly the same. AGI leads the human race off of a cliff, not in the direction of one human interest group vs another. the only difference would be that it was china that was responsible for the extinction if the human race rather than another country. i would prefer to die with dignity… the outcome we should all be advocating for is a global halt of AI research — not because it would be easy but because there is no other option.

whimsicalism 2y ago

we need to cooperate and put aside our petty politicking right now. the potential downsides of ‘racing’ without building a safety scaffold are catastrophic.