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I thought the business prop for AI was that it eliminates jobs?

by dwnw 2y ago

adamredwoods 2y ago
It will. The short-term sale is that it will create thousands of temporary jobs, and long-term reduce hundreds of thousands of jobs, while handing the savings to stock holdings and moving wealth to the stockholders.
- jimbokun 2y ago
  Looks on pace to eliminate every human job over 10 years. What is the hard limiting factor constraining software and robots from replacing any human job in that time span? Lots of limitations of current technology, but all seem likely to be solved within that timeframe.
  - goatlover 2y ago
    What data to you have to support such a claim?
    - adamredwoods 2y ago
      From Zuckerberg, for example: >> "a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate, is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers." https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/meta-developing-ai-engineers-to-write-code-instead-of-humans/485806 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/meta-developing-a... Ikea's been doing this for a while: >> Ingka says it has trained 8,500 call centre workers as interior design advisers since 2021, while Billie - launched the same year with a name inspired by IKEA's Billy bookcase range - has handled 47% of customers' queries to call centres over the past two years. https://www.reuters.com/technology/ikea-bets-remote-interior-design-ai-changes-sales-strategy-2023-06-13/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/ikea-bets-remote-interior...
      - dwnw 2y ago
        By your own admission, Ikea eliminated 0 jobs and you gave no number for Meta.
        adamredwoods 2y ago
        Do you expect all companies to retrain? Do you expect CEOs to be wrong? Do you expect AI to stay the same, get better, or get worse? I never made the claim that new jobs will NOT be made, that is yet to be seen, but jobs will be lost to AI. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/18/bt-cut-jobs-telecoms-group-workforce https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/18/bt-cut-jobs... >> “For a company like BT there is a huge opportunity to use AI to be more efficient,” he said. “There is a sort of 10,000 reduction from that sort of automated digitisation, we will be a huge beneficiary of AI. I believe generative AI is a huge leap forward; yes, we have to be careful, but it is a massive change.” Goldman Sacs: https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.html https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/202... >> Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300mn full-time jobs to automation.
        throw83288 2y ago
        I'm on your side, but there's two readings of these reports: 1) "We are serious, this is going to happen." 2) "AI is big right now so if we hype it we might get some money!"
    - jimbokun 2y ago
      I do not have any hard data from 10 years from now. My speculation is based on not seeing any constraints that will block progress of machine intelligence from reaching those capabilities within 10 years. Also, Kurzweil's predictions from early 2000s have been eerily prescience and this is the time frame he predicted for the Singularity.

I thought the business prop for AI was that it eliminates jobs?

by dwnw 2y ago

I thought the business prop for AI was that it eliminates jobs?

It will. The short-term sale is that it will create thousands of temporary jobs, and long-term reduce hundreds of thousands of jobs, while handing the savings to stock holdings and moving wealth to the stockholders.

jimbokun 2y ago
Looks on pace to eliminate every human job over 10 years. What is the hard limiting factor constraining software and robots from replacing any human job in that time span? Lots of limitations of current technology, but all seem likely to be solved within that timeframe.
- goatlover 2y ago
  What data to you have to support such a claim?
  - adamredwoods 2y ago
    From Zuckerberg, for example: >> "a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate, is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers." https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/meta-developing-ai-engineers-to-write-code-instead-of-humans/485806 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/meta-developing-a... Ikea's been doing this for a while: >> Ingka says it has trained 8,500 call centre workers as interior design advisers since 2021, while Billie - launched the same year with a name inspired by IKEA's Billy bookcase range - has handled 47% of customers' queries to call centres over the past two years. https://www.reuters.com/technology/ikea-bets-remote-interior-design-ai-changes-sales-strategy-2023-06-13/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/ikea-bets-remote-interior...
    - dwnw 2y ago
      By your own admission, Ikea eliminated 0 jobs and you gave no number for Meta.
      - adamredwoods 2y ago
        Do you expect all companies to retrain? Do you expect CEOs to be wrong? Do you expect AI to stay the same, get better, or get worse? I never made the claim that new jobs will NOT be made, that is yet to be seen, but jobs will be lost to AI. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/18/bt-cut-jobs-telecoms-group-workforce https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/18/bt-cut-jobs... >> “For a company like BT there is a huge opportunity to use AI to be more efficient,” he said. “There is a sort of 10,000 reduction from that sort of automated digitisation, we will be a huge beneficiary of AI. I believe generative AI is a huge leap forward; yes, we have to be careful, but it is a massive change.” Goldman Sacs: https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/03/27/d64e052b-0f6e-45d7-967b-d7be35fabd16.html https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/202... >> Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300mn full-time jobs to automation.
        throw83288 2y ago
        I'm on your side, but there's two readings of these reports: 1) "We are serious, this is going to happen." 2) "AI is big right now so if we hype it we might get some money!"
  - jimbokun 2y ago
    I do not have any hard data from 10 years from now. My speculation is based on not seeing any constraints that will block progress of machine intelligence from reaching those capabilities within 10 years. Also, Kurzweil's predictions from early 2000s have been eerily prescience and this is the time frame he predicted for the Singularity.