4 ms·

Yes, Climate Change Is Probably Going to Kill You

25 points by marvinborner 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
NotYourLawyer 2y ago
Alarmist nonsense.
- HaZeust 2y ago
  Thankful that username checks out.
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  Any more insight for us?
palata 2y ago
Very nicely written! I would like to emphasize two things: 1. We have passed 1.5C last year, that's something we have measured. And because of this "lag effect" (inertia), this is the result of the emissions from decades ago. Which means that even if we stop emitting entirely tomorrow, it will keep on warming for decades. 2. We all know that the dinosaurs disappeared. What we don't always realise, though, is that the climate change that drove their extinction happened orders of magnitude slower than what we are measuring now. Some like to refer to something catastrophic as "what happened to the dinosaurs"... well what we are measuring now is a lot worse.
- soupfordummies 2y ago
  I thought “asteroid” was the leading theory for dinosaur extinction. Did that cause a prolonged climate change or has the consensus shifted? Not trying to debate or anything, just curious
  - tuatoru 2y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic%E2%80%93Jurassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic%E2%80%93Jurassic_exti... > The Triassic–Jurassic (Tr-J) extinction event (TJME), often called the end-Triassic extinction, marks the boundary between the Triassic and Jurassic periods, 201.4 million years ago. It is one of five major extinction events, profoundly affecting life on land and in the oceans.[...] > The cause of the Tr-J extinction event may have been extensive volcanic eruptions in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP),[8] which released large amounts of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere,[9][10] causing profound global warming[11] along with ocean acidification.
    - josephcsible 2y ago
      The person you replied to was talking about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_e..., not the Triassic-Jurassic one.
  - palata 2y ago
    The asteroid was the cause of the climate change indeed!
jmclnx 2y ago
Well we have no one to blame but ourselves. Pres. Carter tried to get this on the radar 50 years ago, but the Reagan fully went anti-science and brought the GOP with him. At one time the GOP used science for some of their polices, not anymore. It is too bad, but that article does detail potential problems of Climate Change. The next 4 years we all know what little Climate Cbhange support the US Gov had will probably be cancelled.
abdullahkhalids 2y ago
> What are some second and third-order impacts? ... food shortages, lack of fresh water, disease, heat stress, mass migration and conflicts. The current IPCC estimate for say crop yields change is quite low, less than 10% for <2.4C warming [1]. What they miss out are the actual higher-order effects. Food shortages are already leading to export bans, for example by India with corresponding global effects [2]. And as the situation worsens, the dark political forces that will emerge will cause the real problems. Tit-for-tat export bans of food can cause 10% food shortage to famine in certain areas, to war and other sorts of conflicts. Self-imposed breakdown of global supply chains can be catastrophic IPCC and climate scientists cannot do a game theoretic analysis of how countries will behave. The real danger lies, where as expected, everyone defects. [1] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... Page 16 [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/16/how-indias-ban-on-some-rice-exports-is-ricocheting-around-the-world https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/16/how-indias-ban-o...
- bokohut 2y ago
  How about fourth, fifth, or greater order impacts that science cannot "see" in this moment because the change cannot be historically recreated visually in any data? Ponder this citizen scientists' unexpert thoughts for a moment in which I have spent many hours doing from my many evenings of star gazing as thinking sessions. The poles of our planet currently retain a massive amount of frozen water that imposes significant force on each opposing end of our planet. That ice has accumulated over a long period of time which has slowly shaped our planet into a spheroid. As that ice melts and that mass is redistributed around the planet into all connected bodies of oceanic waters the pressure on the poles is fundamentally going to change. As that pressure subsides the ground at the poles will rebound thus impacting the shape of our planet physically returning it to a sphere. We have a term for when the ground moves but even more alarming will be the knock on effects of the entire planet changing shape for what lies under the ground that is red hot and often appears violently. Since we monitor the ground shaking and we also monitor volcanic activity we should have a fairly good awareness of such events occurring however what will be the explanation for the increases in such events? The effect may be red hot but the cause will likely be ice cold. Interesting times reside ahead as we learn more and more about the only place every single person calls home. What you cannot see matters most!
bryanlarsen 2y ago
Worst case scenario is that we eat food grown in greenhouses and use desalinated water. It's horrendously more expensive, but not out of reach of consumers in developed countries. People don't understand food economics. We use approximately all the arable land in the world to grow food because that's the cheapest way to grow enough food. If we had less usable farm land we won't grow less food, we'll use more intensive methods to grow the same amount of food at higher prices. Climate change is going to be horrible enough without this nonsense. If we lose 90% of species, that's going to be terrible. The human species will be part of the 10% that survives.
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  Sounds like you’re counting on being in the 10%.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    Yes, I'm human and am above the $2/day poverty line, so I'm in the 10%.
    - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
      Sheesh, real stuff.
      - bryanlarsen 2y ago
        Reports like https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/22/catastrophic-great-barrier-reef-hit-by-its-most-widespread-coral-bleaching-study-finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/22/catastro... are very real. Those are the types of reasons to fight climate change. The original post is BS. It's a distraction and so wrong it helps climate deniers more than it helps the cause.
        BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        How so? It misunderstood 1.5C, but otherwise it seemed largely factual to my untrained eye.
nathanaldensr 2y ago
Oh nooooooooooo!
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
tuatoru 2y ago
While I agree with the general thrust of the piece, many details seem wrong. Food shortages will not kill you.[1] Nor will mass migration per se. But the author omits global thermonuclear war--the biggest, most dangerous risk, as it always has been--being made more likely by climate change induced stresses. Water and/or electricity shortages and/or heat stress or wildfires or conflict may well kill millions who live in countries or states with incapable governments (those that are corrupt, or nepotistic, or otherwise have key personnel not selected for competence alone). The author seems to think "reserves" is a meaningful figure for metals and other minerals. Reserves is a figure for the amount that companies have found and that they are are prepared to go through the process of developing within (approximately) the next 20 years (the standard permitting, financing and construction timetable). When they get to 20 years' worth, companies stop looking. 1. I have lived through at least two food price supercycles, with peaks in the 1970s and the 2005-2008 period. Food price cycles are self-correcting. There is a lot of slack in the food production and distribution system - think of all the corn grown for e-85 gasoline, for instance.
deepsun 2y ago
Why this submission is [flagged]? It fits all the HN guidelines, and is pretty interesting (to me) for the arguments they present.

25 points by marvinborner 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

NotYourLawyer 2y ago

Alarmist nonsense.

HaZeust 2y ago
Thankful that username checks out.
BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
Any more insight for us?

palata 2y ago

Very nicely written! I would like to emphasize two things: 1. We have passed 1.5C last year, that's something we have measured. And because of this "lag effect" (inertia), this is the result of the emissions from decades ago. Which means that even if we stop emitting entirely tomorrow, it will keep on warming for decades. 2. We all know that the dinosaurs disappeared. What we don't always realise, though, is that the climate change that drove their extinction happened orders of magnitude slower than what we are measuring now. Some like to refer to something catastrophic as "what happened to the dinosaurs"... well what we are measuring now is a lot worse.

soupfordummies 2y ago
I thought “asteroid” was the leading theory for dinosaur extinction. Did that cause a prolonged climate change or has the consensus shifted? Not trying to debate or anything, just curious
- tuatoru 2y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic%E2%80%93Jurassic_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic%E2%80%93Jurassic_exti... > The Triassic–Jurassic (Tr-J) extinction event (TJME), often called the end-Triassic extinction, marks the boundary between the Triassic and Jurassic periods, 201.4 million years ago. It is one of five major extinction events, profoundly affecting life on land and in the oceans.[...] > The cause of the Tr-J extinction event may have been extensive volcanic eruptions in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP),[8] which released large amounts of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere,[9][10] causing profound global warming[11] along with ocean acidification.
  - josephcsible 2y ago
    The person you replied to was talking about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_extinction_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene_e..., not the Triassic-Jurassic one.
- palata 2y ago
  The asteroid was the cause of the climate change indeed!

jmclnx 2y ago

Well we have no one to blame but ourselves. Pres. Carter tried to get this on the radar 50 years ago, but the Reagan fully went anti-science and brought the GOP with him. At one time the GOP used science for some of their polices, not anymore. It is too bad, but that article does detail potential problems of Climate Change. The next 4 years we all know what little Climate Cbhange support the US Gov had will probably be cancelled.

abdullahkhalids 2y ago

> What are some second and third-order impacts? ... food shortages, lack of fresh water, disease, heat stress, mass migration and conflicts. The current IPCC estimate for say crop yields change is quite low, less than 10% for <2.4C warming [1]. What they miss out are the actual higher-order effects. Food shortages are already leading to export bans, for example by India with corresponding global effects [2]. And as the situation worsens, the dark political forces that will emerge will cause the real problems. Tit-for-tat export bans of food can cause 10% food shortage to famine in certain areas, to war and other sorts of conflicts. Self-imposed breakdown of global supply chains can be catastrophic IPCC and climate scientists cannot do a game theoretic analysis of how countries will behave. The real danger lies, where as expected, everyone defects. [1] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... Page 16 [2] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/16/how-indias-ban-on-some-rice-exports-is-ricocheting-around-the-world https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/16/how-indias-ban-o...

bokohut 2y ago
How about fourth, fifth, or greater order impacts that science cannot "see" in this moment because the change cannot be historically recreated visually in any data? Ponder this citizen scientists' unexpert thoughts for a moment in which I have spent many hours doing from my many evenings of star gazing as thinking sessions. The poles of our planet currently retain a massive amount of frozen water that imposes significant force on each opposing end of our planet. That ice has accumulated over a long period of time which has slowly shaped our planet into a spheroid. As that ice melts and that mass is redistributed around the planet into all connected bodies of oceanic waters the pressure on the poles is fundamentally going to change. As that pressure subsides the ground at the poles will rebound thus impacting the shape of our planet physically returning it to a sphere. We have a term for when the ground moves but even more alarming will be the knock on effects of the entire planet changing shape for what lies under the ground that is red hot and often appears violently. Since we monitor the ground shaking and we also monitor volcanic activity we should have a fairly good awareness of such events occurring however what will be the explanation for the increases in such events? The effect may be red hot but the cause will likely be ice cold. Interesting times reside ahead as we learn more and more about the only place every single person calls home. What you cannot see matters most!

bryanlarsen 2y ago

Worst case scenario is that we eat food grown in greenhouses and use desalinated water. It's horrendously more expensive, but not out of reach of consumers in developed countries. People don't understand food economics. We use approximately all the arable land in the world to grow food because that's the cheapest way to grow enough food. If we had less usable farm land we won't grow less food, we'll use more intensive methods to grow the same amount of food at higher prices. Climate change is going to be horrible enough without this nonsense. If we lose 90% of species, that's going to be terrible. The human species will be part of the 10% that survives.

BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
Sounds like you’re counting on being in the 10%.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Yes, I'm human and am above the $2/day poverty line, so I'm in the 10%.
  - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
    Sheesh, real stuff.
    - bryanlarsen 2y ago
      Reports like https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/22/catastrophic-great-barrier-reef-hit-by-its-most-widespread-coral-bleaching-study-finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/22/catastro... are very real. Those are the types of reasons to fight climate change. The original post is BS. It's a distraction and so wrong it helps climate deniers more than it helps the cause.
      - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
        How so? It misunderstood 1.5C, but otherwise it seemed largely factual to my untrained eye.

nathanaldensr 2y ago

Oh nooooooooooo!

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

tuatoru 2y ago

While I agree with the general thrust of the piece, many details seem wrong. Food shortages will not kill you.[1] Nor will mass migration per se. But the author omits global thermonuclear war--the biggest, most dangerous risk, as it always has been--being made more likely by climate change induced stresses. Water and/or electricity shortages and/or heat stress or wildfires or conflict may well kill millions who live in countries or states with incapable governments (those that are corrupt, or nepotistic, or otherwise have key personnel not selected for competence alone). The author seems to think "reserves" is a meaningful figure for metals and other minerals. Reserves is a figure for the amount that companies have found and that they are are prepared to go through the process of developing within (approximately) the next 20 years (the standard permitting, financing and construction timetable). When they get to 20 years' worth, companies stop looking. 1. I have lived through at least two food price supercycles, with peaks in the 1970s and the 2005-2008 period. Food price cycles are self-correcting. There is a lot of slack in the food production and distribution system - think of all the corn grown for e-85 gasoline, for instance.

deepsun 2y ago

Why this submission is [flagged]? It fits all the HN guidelines, and is pretty interesting (to me) for the arguments they present.