5 ms·

These export controls seem particularly misguided in light of the role Taiwan's TSMC play in chip design and manufacture. Long term, clearly China is capable of

by dbspin 2y ago

These export controls seem particularly misguided in light of the role Taiwan's TSMC play in chip design and manufacture. Long term, clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML's tooling - it's an economic necessity that they do so, even if (big assumption) they'll always be X years behind the current process node. Espionage and desperation are a powerful combination. Short term, doesn't this make Taiwan an even more glittering jewel to the CCP?

threeseed 2y ago
> they'll always be X years behind the current process node Which will render the country a technological back-water and affect their ability to build the advanced systems needed to compete in a war for Taiwan. And given that China would be fighting against a war against West + Japan + South Korea with support from at least a few ASEAN countries they would need to be at the top of their game to have a chance of taking Taiwan.
- thefounder 2y ago
  What makes you think they need the latest technology to win a war? Technology may be an advantage but the wars are dicy.
  - 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
    What fraction of servers are even running the latest and greatest? Datacenters are not scrapping their entire fleet the day TSMC releases a new node.
    - threeseed 2y ago
      We aren't talking about China being behind on one node. It's a ban on anything less than 7nm. So every year the discrepancy accumulates.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - threeseed 2y ago
    What we've seen in Ukraine is the trend towards autonomous aerial/naval drones. And having compute superiority can make a big difference if it ends up being a war largely conducted by competing AIs.
foooorsyth 2y ago
So because China will steal it eventually, we should just give it away now? That’s your argument? >clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML’s tooling The only thing clear to me is precisely the opposite. Nobody has been able to catch up with ASML, including China. If China is capable of catching up on their own (without espionage), why would Taiwan even matter? Why would export controls on ASML tooling even matter? They matter because ASML and TSMC are companies built on secret know-how that others can’t replicate. Do we really need to explain on HN that companies are built on secrets?
- SllX 2y ago
  > why would Taiwan even matter? The CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has popular support in the mainland. Taiwan will never not matter. But otherwise I agree with the rest of your argument.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has popular support in the mainland Plenty of countries, particularly those in an economic slump, have popular support for stupid wars. That changes quickly when the war is started and the costs come home.
    - SllX 2y ago
      This doesn’t stop them from starting stupid wars for stupid reasons. Losing a war is not even a guarantee that they will waive their future territorial ambitions or concessions just as two examples: Spain and Gibraltar or Argentina and the Falklands.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Argentina and the Falklands This is the example Xi, and those around him, would be looking to.
        2y ago
shrubble 2y ago
The USSR was consistently 10-15 years behind in semiconductor fabrication ability and this did matter. China is closer, but still… BTW the ASML technology is based in part on research that was funded by the USA; which is why the USA has a say in who gets it.
nradov 2y ago
Taiwan is a jewel that could quickly shatter into dust. There are persistent rumors that the ASML tooling (and other key fab machinery) is rigged for sabotage. If China were to mount a serious invasion attempt then Taiwanese security forces or TSMC employees would wreck the machinery beyond repair. This implicit threat acts as a deterrent against invasion. Even if China could capture the ASML tooling intact it would only be useful for some reverse engineering. Actual production requires both skilled local employees and ongoing support from headquarters back in the Netherlands.
- 1oooqooq 2y ago
  sounds great for china. pretend invasion, suffer no consequence because never actually invaded, but still destroy the enemy silicon fab advantages.
  - nradov 2y ago
    Which is why the USA essentially forced TSMC to build a fab here. That reduces China's potential leverage and provides some geographic redundancy. Even if China never invades, TSMC production in Taiwan could be crippled by a natural disaster or labor action or local political crisis or something. https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm
    - 1oooqooq 2y ago
      that will be slightly relevant when they move all their engineers here
- eumenides1 2y ago
  To further add to the parent, think about how stupid it is to turn off an money printing machine. China did exactly when it mismanaged Hong Kong. Hong Kong USED to be financial titan. First, Taiwan sees HK and knows what's up. You don't sleep next to an elephant all your life and not know when they will roll over. Second, even if Taiwan didn't rig for sabotage AND (big AND) just straight up surrendered (it won't); People will slowly leave, turn over will happen, machines will age out, the right investments will not be made, etc. Taiwan may not shatter (immediately), but it will rust and dull. Look at HK and I believe that is the BEST case scenario for the China. For Taiwan, semi-conductors represent a poison pill/porcupine defense. But that is all that is, defense/poison. It won't stop China if the leaders decide that it would just eat the consequences. I hope Taiwan can find a creative solution to their woes. For China, they have to realize they are on a timer. They can't keep "turning off money machines", or "crushing jewels". At some point they are going to run out of "resources" to extract and I hope they figure out how to work with countries in their region instead of antagonizing them. Why? because 1+ billion people will suffer if they don't figure it out.

by dbspin 2y ago

threeseed 2y ago

> they'll always be X years behind the current process node Which will render the country a technological back-water and affect their ability to build the advanced systems needed to compete in a war for Taiwan. And given that China would be fighting against a war against West + Japan + South Korea with support from at least a few ASEAN countries they would need to be at the top of their game to have a chance of taking Taiwan.

thefounder 2y ago
What makes you think they need the latest technology to win a war? Technology may be an advantage but the wars are dicy.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
  What fraction of servers are even running the latest and greatest? Datacenters are not scrapping their entire fleet the day TSMC releases a new node.
  - threeseed 2y ago
    We aren't talking about China being behind on one node. It's a ban on anything less than 7nm. So every year the discrepancy accumulates.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- threeseed 2y ago
  What we've seen in Ukraine is the trend towards autonomous aerial/naval drones. And having compute superiority can make a big difference if it ends up being a war largely conducted by competing AIs.

foooorsyth 2y ago

So because China will steal it eventually, we should just give it away now? That’s your argument? >clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML’s tooling The only thing clear to me is precisely the opposite. Nobody has been able to catch up with ASML, including China. If China is capable of catching up on their own (without espionage), why would Taiwan even matter? Why would export controls on ASML tooling even matter? They matter because ASML and TSMC are companies built on secret know-how that others can’t replicate. Do we really need to explain on HN that companies are built on secrets?

SllX 2y ago
> why would Taiwan even matter? The CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has popular support in the mainland. Taiwan will never not matter. But otherwise I agree with the rest of your argument.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has popular support in the mainland Plenty of countries, particularly those in an economic slump, have popular support for stupid wars. That changes quickly when the war is started and the costs come home.
  - SllX 2y ago
    This doesn’t stop them from starting stupid wars for stupid reasons. Losing a war is not even a guarantee that they will waive their future territorial ambitions or concessions just as two examples: Spain and Gibraltar or Argentina and the Falklands.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Argentina and the Falklands This is the example Xi, and those around him, would be looking to.
      - 2y ago

shrubble 2y ago

The USSR was consistently 10-15 years behind in semiconductor fabrication ability and this did matter. China is closer, but still… BTW the ASML technology is based in part on research that was funded by the USA; which is why the USA has a say in who gets it.

nradov 2y ago

Taiwan is a jewel that could quickly shatter into dust. There are persistent rumors that the ASML tooling (and other key fab machinery) is rigged for sabotage. If China were to mount a serious invasion attempt then Taiwanese security forces or TSMC employees would wreck the machinery beyond repair. This implicit threat acts as a deterrent against invasion. Even if China could capture the ASML tooling intact it would only be useful for some reverse engineering. Actual production requires both skilled local employees and ongoing support from headquarters back in the Netherlands.

1oooqooq 2y ago
sounds great for china. pretend invasion, suffer no consequence because never actually invaded, but still destroy the enemy silicon fab advantages.
- nradov 2y ago
  Which is why the USA essentially forced TSMC to build a fab here. That reduces China's potential leverage and provides some geographic redundancy. Even if China never invades, TSMC production in Taiwan could be crippled by a natural disaster or labor action or local political crisis or something. https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm
  - 1oooqooq 2y ago
    that will be slightly relevant when they move all their engineers here
eumenides1 2y ago
To further add to the parent, think about how stupid it is to turn off an money printing machine. China did exactly when it mismanaged Hong Kong. Hong Kong USED to be financial titan. First, Taiwan sees HK and knows what's up. You don't sleep next to an elephant all your life and not know when they will roll over. Second, even if Taiwan didn't rig for sabotage AND (big AND) just straight up surrendered (it won't); People will slowly leave, turn over will happen, machines will age out, the right investments will not be made, etc. Taiwan may not shatter (immediately), but it will rust and dull. Look at HK and I believe that is the BEST case scenario for the China. For Taiwan, semi-conductors represent a poison pill/porcupine defense. But that is all that is, defense/poison. It won't stop China if the leaders decide that it would just eat the consequences. I hope Taiwan can find a creative solution to their woes. For China, they have to realize they are on a timer. They can't keep "turning off money machines", or "crushing jewels". At some point they are going to run out of "resources" to extract and I hope they figure out how to work with countries in their region instead of antagonizing them. Why? because 1+ billion people will suffer if they don't figure it out.