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I agree, though I do think it says a lot that some variation of this comment gets posted every time the subject of Blue Origin comes up, to the point where it's

I agree, though I do think it says a lot that some variation of this comment gets posted every time the subject of Blue Origin comes up, to the point where it's almost a cliche. It's a little unfortunate that New Glenn is merely "competition for SpaceX"; not innovative enough to stand on its own as a marked improvement to private spaceflight capabilities the way something like Starship (or even Stoke Space's Nova, if it comes to fruition) will be. But everyone has to start somewhere. New Glenn should be a great competitor to Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy at least, and SpaceX does indeed desperately need competition right now (lest they risk becoming a monopoly).

2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
> will be It's a big if. I personally don't believe starship will ever get as far as carrying humans.
- Ajedi32 2y ago
  Even if Starship never carries humans (something I would debate you on) it would still qualify as a "marked improvement to private spaceflight capabilities". It may well clear that bar in a few months in fact, after they demonstrate orbital refueling in March[1] (or a bit later). All the other important parts (engines, heat shield, landing) have already been demonstrated as viable, and humans are a tiny percentage of all launches. [1]: https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/01/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/01/
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
    I disagree :) But I don't want to argue. Time will tell! I hope I'm wrong, it'll be incredible to see it all come together.
    - influx 2y ago
      Can you expand a little bit why you think that?
imtringued 2y ago
As of right now, New Glenn is not a bottleneck for any short term endeavours that Blue Origin is planning. The only real bottleneck is the cislunar transporter by Lockheed Martin. Once they have the Cislunar Transporter, their bottleneck will be the cost of the refueling flights, not the cost of upper stage expending flights that deliver payloads. That's when they are going to need to start replacing the GS2 refueler with something reusable. Can Stoke Space deliver 135 tons of liquid hydrogen and oxygen to the Cislunar Transporter? Can Rocket Lab do that? Starship might, but it uses a different fuel, so who knows.

2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago

> will be It's a big if. I personally don't believe starship will ever get as far as carrying humans.

Ajedi32 2y ago
Even if Starship never carries humans (something I would debate you on) it would still qualify as a "marked improvement to private spaceflight capabilities". It may well clear that bar in a few months in fact, after they demonstrate orbital refueling in March[1] (or a bit later). All the other important parts (engines, heat shield, landing) have already been demonstrated as viable, and humans are a tiny percentage of all launches. [1]: https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/01/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/01/
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
  I disagree :) But I don't want to argue. Time will tell! I hope I'm wrong, it'll be incredible to see it all come together.
  - influx 2y ago
    Can you expand a little bit why you think that?

imtringued 2y ago

As of right now, New Glenn is not a bottleneck for any short term endeavours that Blue Origin is planning. The only real bottleneck is the cislunar transporter by Lockheed Martin. Once they have the Cislunar Transporter, their bottleneck will be the cost of the refueling flights, not the cost of upper stage expending flights that deliver payloads. That's when they are going to need to start replacing the GS2 refueler with something reusable. Can Stoke Space deliver 135 tons of liquid hydrogen and oxygen to the Cislunar Transporter? Can Rocket Lab do that? Starship might, but it uses a different fuel, so who knows.