5 ms·

I'm still looking for the incovenient truths because I couldn't find them in that article... A couple thousand words with no real insight or information.

by elteto 2y ago

SoftTalker 2y ago
Not directly stated (and maybe not even intended) but for me the inconvenient truth is that human society is absolutely powerless against nature at the extreme ends of the scale. We can do a lot, we can build sea walls, we can reroute rivers, we can cross over or tunnel under almost any obstacle. But ultimately, the planet is capable of bringing more to bear than we can offset, whether it's wind-driven wildfires, floods, large hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, volcanoes. The best and only thing we can do in those situations is hope we have enough warning to get out of the way or find someplace to hide.
- tlogan 2y ago
  I believe this assessment is intellectually dishonest. A couple of days before the fires started, I received a major red alert on my phone (I was in Los Angeles just prior to the fires - Recognizing the danger, I decided to leave). I expected to see a large-scale response—fire trucks stationed everywhere, extra firefighters on standby, planes ready to deploy, and vegetation being watered—but none of that appeared to happen. This isn’t about partisanship. One of the core responsibilities of our elected officials is to effectively manage situations like this. Until we address the root causes (like global warming), these events will continue to occur, and we need better preparedness in the meantime.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    Fire departments do not have the equipment nor the personnel to handle "the entire city is on fire" events. That would require one or two fire trucks with crew for each house in the city. Even if you could do that, you would quickly deplete the available water supply. It's just not possible. Could more have been done to make a fire of this size less likely? Perhaps. But once it starts, and reaches a certain size, with winds as they were and combustible material in its path, all you can do is get out.
    - lazide 2y ago
      Every city in the state has mutual aid available.
    - tlogan 2y ago
      > Fire departments do not have the equipment > nor the personnel to handle "the entire city is on fire" events. True, but in fire-prone areas—such as those so high-risk that insurers refuse coverage—we might need to consider a different approach. Whether it’s specialized equipment, additional staffing, or other protective measures, some system should be in place specifically for those regions..
      - SoftTalker 2y ago
        > as those so high-risk that insurers refuse coverage Maybe in those areas the policy should be "you're on your own."
  - takeda 2y ago
    They did prepare though, 3 days before they got units from north California. If nothing would happen they would be attacked for risking safety of BTW: which locations in the whole Los Angeles (you know how big it is? actually there's no guarantee the fire works be in LA) you should get fire trucks stationed? There wasn't any rain registered since April, there were unprecedented (last time we had such big ones was 15 years ago) dry, 100mph winds. This means using air support was also not feasible at the time. We mostly talk about Palisades, but when watching WatchDuty app, fires were constantly popping up in random places. It was a nightmare, and it is frustrating to see politicizing the whole thing or criticizing that fire men did something wrong. Why those people aren't volunteering and helping? There are some things that is impossible to do with what we have. Much more effective would be for example having all building up to the latest fire code, but majority are of course old.
    - tlogan 2y ago
      > If nothing would happen they would be attacked for risking safety of You’ve pinpointed the core issue. Politicians have little incentive to invest in preventive measures because, as voters, we rarely reward that sort of long-term planning. And who’s really at fault? We are. We don’t demand enough accountability for prevention when we cast our votes. If they successfully prevent fires, nobody notices—and no political points are scored.
      - takeda 2y ago
        It's the same in Software Engineering, lol. If your service just works no one cares. If you instead have a flaky service, but step in to save the day then you become a hero :) Though I agree somewhat that politicians don't have as much incentive, but this is what regulations are for. Someone said that regulations are written in blood, because they are results of "lessons learned". It doesn't help that then those regulations are frequently removed to help businesses and the cycle repeats.
  - danaris 2y ago
    > This isn’t about partisanship. One of the core responsibilities of our elected officials is to effectively manage situations like this. Unfortunately, this seems to be fast becoming a partisan position.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  Not necessarily. There are similar cases in other countries where the fire was well controlled. Might not be as similar as I thought, but I'm wondering if professionals can give an honest post mortem at least for this time.
  - leptons 2y ago
    >There are similar cases in other countries where the fire was well controlled. Did they also have unprecedented 100mph wind gusts, and strong winds blowing for days? It's impossible to fly fire mitigation aircraft in those conditions, and the terrain where the fire was spreading the most were rugged mountain areas, mostly not accessible to firefighters.
    - throw0101a 2y ago
      E.g., > “Without helicopters, this kind of a brush fire, we cannot stop it on the ground,” said Margaret Stewart, an LAFD spokeswoman. > Perhaps demonstrating what a difference aircraft can make, a fire that threatened the Hollywood Hills late Wednesday was quickly contained and limited to 43 acres. Calmer winds allowed aircraft to douse flames with water from nearby reservoirs. * https://archive.is/https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/10/la-fires-containment-winds-firefighter-challenges/ https://archive.is/https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/20...
      - SoftTalker 2y ago
        Water scooped from reservoirs is less effective than you might think. When it is dropped, a good amount of it evaporates before it ever hits the ground. Most effective would be air drops of fire retardant, but neither can be done in high wind conditions.
        throw0101a 2y ago
        > Water scooped from reservoirs is less effective than you might think. I'm guessing that water scooped from reservoirs is probably more effective than no water at all.
lokar 2y ago
We can’t treat fire as an occasional emergency the fire department will take care of. Managing fire risk is something every town and home owner need to spend time on year round.
- ghaff 2y ago
  Even if you don't really live in a wildfire area, there are things you can/should do. I get my fields cut back with a tractor once or twice a year and keep a lawn around the house. I also won't use firepits that have the potential to ignite the surroundings.
  - lokar 2y ago
    This is what everyone needs to be doing, and the fire dept. needs to enforce it.
    - throw0101a 2y ago
      > […] and the fire dept. needs to enforce it. And/or insurance companies.
      - lokar 2y ago
        This is actually where the action has been recently. Lots of people complain about aerial inspection by insurance followed by ultimatums to clear vegetation and junk. Look for people asking for regulations to prevent this any day now.
        ghaff 2y ago
        >Look for people asking for regulations to prevent this any day now. I actually sort of empathize with a point of view that you pay your insurance every year, aren't doing anything especially unreasonable, and have to adhere to a somewhat arbitrary new standard at possibly very significant cost and time. To be clear, I get the other side too in wildfire-prone areas.
readthenotes1 2y ago
The inconvenience was ignoring the experts advice. They might have said something along the lines of make sure you have water, the ability to use it (hello Maui), and people who know how to use it. Or maybe they thought that was needless to say and had more advanced advice like clearing dead brush, making fire breaks, etc. Or ... Well yeah. It would be nice to know what advice was ignored. I'm sure there was plenty in that category.
throw0101a 2y ago
> A couple thousand words with no real insight or information. Because it's things we already know about, but refuse to do anything about. For example: > “The assumption is continually made that it’s the big flames” that cause widespread community destruction, he said, “and yet the wildfire actually only initiates community ignitions largely with lofted burning embers.” We've known about embers for decades, and why you need to clear the area around your home of ignition sources: * https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/wildfire/preparing-homes-for-wildfire https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/wildfire/prepari... Here's a potato-quality video posted thirteen years ago on landscaping best practices: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NVe0gu69FY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NVe0gu69FY A news story from twelve years ago about a home that survivied (with a charred landscape around it): * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rgUp245nso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rgUp245nso Which is talked about in the article: > This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention. No longer is it a matter of preventing wildfires but instead preventing points of ignition within communities by employing “home-hardening” strategies — proper landscaping, fire-resistant siding — and enjoining neighbors in collective efforts such as brush clearing. We may also have to accept that perhaps Mother Nature can still be more powerful than humans at times: > The National Fire Prevention Assn., a national nonprofit that provides standards for fire suppression operations, calls for a minimum of three engines or 15 firefighters for a single-residence fire, a number that is impossible to attain when fighting a fire on the scale of the Palisades or Eaton fires. > “We’re not recognizing, analyzing, questioning how we’re failing,” Cohen said. “We just think we need more airplanes and more helicopters flying 24 hours a day.” > More CL-415 super-scoopers or Firehawk helicopters will not help when water is being dropped into 60 mph wind gusts. See also "Why Los Angeles was unprepared for this fire": > Water runs short: […] “There’s no urban water system engineered and constructed to combat wildfire,” said Michael McNutt, a spokesman for the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, which serves 75,000 people in northwest Los Angeles County. The system was intended to supply water to homes and businesses, he said, and to help fire crews defend a large structure or several homes, not multiple neighborhoods at once. […] * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42674591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42674591
SteveVeilStream 2y ago
I think this gets at the heart of it. People assume that these fires are fought and prevented in the forest/hills by wildland fire fighters but the reality is that individual homeowners can do a lot by clearing brush, etc. (ahead of time,) from their own yards. It's an inconvenient truth because it shifts the responsibility to individuals. ""...Ignitions downwind and across streets are typically from showers of burning embers from burning structures.” This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention. No longer is it a matter of preventing wildfires but instead preventing points of ignition within communities by employing “home-hardening” strategies — proper landscaping, fire-resistant siding — and enjoining neighbors in collective efforts such as brush clearing."

I'm still looking for the incovenient truths because I couldn't find them in that article... A couple thousand words with no real insight or information.

by elteto 2y ago

I'm still looking for the incovenient truths because I couldn't find them in that article... A couple thousand words with no real insight or information.

SoftTalker 2y ago

Not directly stated (and maybe not even intended) but for me the inconvenient truth is that human society is absolutely powerless against nature at the extreme ends of the scale. We can do a lot, we can build sea walls, we can reroute rivers, we can cross over or tunnel under almost any obstacle. But ultimately, the planet is capable of bringing more to bear than we can offset, whether it's wind-driven wildfires, floods, large hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, volcanoes. The best and only thing we can do in those situations is hope we have enough warning to get out of the way or find someplace to hide.

tlogan 2y ago
I believe this assessment is intellectually dishonest. A couple of days before the fires started, I received a major red alert on my phone (I was in Los Angeles just prior to the fires - Recognizing the danger, I decided to leave). I expected to see a large-scale response—fire trucks stationed everywhere, extra firefighters on standby, planes ready to deploy, and vegetation being watered—but none of that appeared to happen. This isn’t about partisanship. One of the core responsibilities of our elected officials is to effectively manage situations like this. Until we address the root causes (like global warming), these events will continue to occur, and we need better preparedness in the meantime.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  Fire departments do not have the equipment nor the personnel to handle "the entire city is on fire" events. That would require one or two fire trucks with crew for each house in the city. Even if you could do that, you would quickly deplete the available water supply. It's just not possible. Could more have been done to make a fire of this size less likely? Perhaps. But once it starts, and reaches a certain size, with winds as they were and combustible material in its path, all you can do is get out.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Every city in the state has mutual aid available.
  - tlogan 2y ago
    > Fire departments do not have the equipment > nor the personnel to handle "the entire city is on fire" events. True, but in fire-prone areas—such as those so high-risk that insurers refuse coverage—we might need to consider a different approach. Whether it’s specialized equipment, additional staffing, or other protective measures, some system should be in place specifically for those regions..
    - SoftTalker 2y ago
      > as those so high-risk that insurers refuse coverage Maybe in those areas the policy should be "you're on your own."
- takeda 2y ago
  They did prepare though, 3 days before they got units from north California. If nothing would happen they would be attacked for risking safety of BTW: which locations in the whole Los Angeles (you know how big it is? actually there's no guarantee the fire works be in LA) you should get fire trucks stationed? There wasn't any rain registered since April, there were unprecedented (last time we had such big ones was 15 years ago) dry, 100mph winds. This means using air support was also not feasible at the time. We mostly talk about Palisades, but when watching WatchDuty app, fires were constantly popping up in random places. It was a nightmare, and it is frustrating to see politicizing the whole thing or criticizing that fire men did something wrong. Why those people aren't volunteering and helping? There are some things that is impossible to do with what we have. Much more effective would be for example having all building up to the latest fire code, but majority are of course old.
  - tlogan 2y ago
    > If nothing would happen they would be attacked for risking safety of You’ve pinpointed the core issue. Politicians have little incentive to invest in preventive measures because, as voters, we rarely reward that sort of long-term planning. And who’s really at fault? We are. We don’t demand enough accountability for prevention when we cast our votes. If they successfully prevent fires, nobody notices—and no political points are scored.
    - takeda 2y ago
      It's the same in Software Engineering, lol. If your service just works no one cares. If you instead have a flaky service, but step in to save the day then you become a hero :) Though I agree somewhat that politicians don't have as much incentive, but this is what regulations are for. Someone said that regulations are written in blood, because they are results of "lessons learned". It doesn't help that then those regulations are frequently removed to help businesses and the cycle repeats.
- danaris 2y ago
  > This isn’t about partisanship. One of the core responsibilities of our elected officials is to effectively manage situations like this. Unfortunately, this seems to be fast becoming a partisan position.
markus_zhang 2y ago
Not necessarily. There are similar cases in other countries where the fire was well controlled. Might not be as similar as I thought, but I'm wondering if professionals can give an honest post mortem at least for this time.
- leptons 2y ago
  >There are similar cases in other countries where the fire was well controlled. Did they also have unprecedented 100mph wind gusts, and strong winds blowing for days? It's impossible to fly fire mitigation aircraft in those conditions, and the terrain where the fire was spreading the most were rugged mountain areas, mostly not accessible to firefighters.
  - throw0101a 2y ago
    E.g., > “Without helicopters, this kind of a brush fire, we cannot stop it on the ground,” said Margaret Stewart, an LAFD spokeswoman. > Perhaps demonstrating what a difference aircraft can make, a fire that threatened the Hollywood Hills late Wednesday was quickly contained and limited to 43 acres. Calmer winds allowed aircraft to douse flames with water from nearby reservoirs. * https://archive.is/https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/10/la-fires-containment-winds-firefighter-challenges/ https://archive.is/https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/20...
    - SoftTalker 2y ago
      Water scooped from reservoirs is less effective than you might think. When it is dropped, a good amount of it evaporates before it ever hits the ground. Most effective would be air drops of fire retardant, but neither can be done in high wind conditions.
      - throw0101a 2y ago
        > Water scooped from reservoirs is less effective than you might think. I'm guessing that water scooped from reservoirs is probably more effective than no water at all.

lokar 2y ago

We can’t treat fire as an occasional emergency the fire department will take care of. Managing fire risk is something every town and home owner need to spend time on year round.

ghaff 2y ago
Even if you don't really live in a wildfire area, there are things you can/should do. I get my fields cut back with a tractor once or twice a year and keep a lawn around the house. I also won't use firepits that have the potential to ignite the surroundings.
- lokar 2y ago
  This is what everyone needs to be doing, and the fire dept. needs to enforce it.
  - throw0101a 2y ago
    > […] and the fire dept. needs to enforce it. And/or insurance companies.
    - lokar 2y ago
      This is actually where the action has been recently. Lots of people complain about aerial inspection by insurance followed by ultimatums to clear vegetation and junk. Look for people asking for regulations to prevent this any day now.
      - ghaff 2y ago
        >Look for people asking for regulations to prevent this any day now. I actually sort of empathize with a point of view that you pay your insurance every year, aren't doing anything especially unreasonable, and have to adhere to a somewhat arbitrary new standard at possibly very significant cost and time. To be clear, I get the other side too in wildfire-prone areas.

readthenotes1 2y ago

The inconvenience was ignoring the experts advice. They might have said something along the lines of make sure you have water, the ability to use it (hello Maui), and people who know how to use it. Or maybe they thought that was needless to say and had more advanced advice like clearing dead brush, making fire breaks, etc. Or ... Well yeah. It would be nice to know what advice was ignored. I'm sure there was plenty in that category.

throw0101a 2y ago

> A couple thousand words with no real insight or information. Because it's things we already know about, but refuse to do anything about. For example: > “The assumption is continually made that it’s the big flames” that cause widespread community destruction, he said, “and yet the wildfire actually only initiates community ignitions largely with lofted burning embers.” We've known about embers for decades, and why you need to clear the area around your home of ignition sources: * https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/wildfire/preparing-homes-for-wildfire https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/wildfire/prepari... Here's a potato-quality video posted thirteen years ago on landscaping best practices: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NVe0gu69FY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NVe0gu69FY A news story from twelve years ago about a home that survivied (with a charred landscape around it): * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rgUp245nso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rgUp245nso Which is talked about in the article: > This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention. No longer is it a matter of preventing wildfires but instead preventing points of ignition within communities by employing “home-hardening” strategies — proper landscaping, fire-resistant siding — and enjoining neighbors in collective efforts such as brush clearing. We may also have to accept that perhaps Mother Nature can still be more powerful than humans at times: > The National Fire Prevention Assn., a national nonprofit that provides standards for fire suppression operations, calls for a minimum of three engines or 15 firefighters for a single-residence fire, a number that is impossible to attain when fighting a fire on the scale of the Palisades or Eaton fires. > “We’re not recognizing, analyzing, questioning how we’re failing,” Cohen said. “We just think we need more airplanes and more helicopters flying 24 hours a day.” > More CL-415 super-scoopers or Firehawk helicopters will not help when water is being dropped into 60 mph wind gusts. See also "Why Los Angeles was unprepared for this fire": > Water runs short: […] “There’s no urban water system engineered and constructed to combat wildfire,” said Michael McNutt, a spokesman for the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, which serves 75,000 people in northwest Los Angeles County. The system was intended to supply water to homes and businesses, he said, and to help fire crews defend a large structure or several homes, not multiple neighborhoods at once. […] * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42674591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42674591

SteveVeilStream 2y ago

I think this gets at the heart of it. People assume that these fires are fought and prevented in the forest/hills by wildland fire fighters but the reality is that individual homeowners can do a lot by clearing brush, etc. (ahead of time,) from their own yards. It's an inconvenient truth because it shifts the responsibility to individuals. ""...Ignitions downwind and across streets are typically from showers of burning embers from burning structures.” This fundamental misunderstanding has likewise led to a misunderstanding of prevention. No longer is it a matter of preventing wildfires but instead preventing points of ignition within communities by employing “home-hardening” strategies — proper landscaping, fire-resistant siding — and enjoining neighbors in collective efforts such as brush clearing."