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things never really "run out", they just get expensive as availability becomes lower. But some people consider this the same as running out, because it is indis

by chii 2y ago

things never really "run out", they just get expensive as availability becomes lower. But some people consider this the same as running out, because it is indistinguishable from running out if you could not afford it.

ggm 2y ago
I think Simons point was that afford and need equipoise. There's also substitution going on all the time, and innovation. Battery chemistry has changed massively over the life of batteries for EV (the thing most often cited as a modern day Ehrlich/Simons bet) Ehrlich thought need would exceed afford at scale. And that it would have massive societal repercussions. Well, it just didn't historically, and there's no reason to believe the (misnamed) rare earths and metallic ores are limiting things for any reason other than price motivation. This last decade we had a temporary chip shortage affect car production rates worldwide. Localised supply chains for Diesel additive have been a problem. There were discussions about ring fencing nitrate fertiliser as a strategic supply. None of these are "limits to growth" stories. Capital investment followed. That said, the price of copper spiked enough to make people start stealing it again worldwide.
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  Which diesel additive?
  - dredmorbius 2y ago
    Likely diesel exhaust fluid, comprised largely of urea, used to mitigate NOx emissions which are a consequence of diesel engine's high compression and combustion temperatures. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid>
    - dredmorbius 2y ago
      And some quick DDG'ing confirms: "Australia’s shortage of diesel additive Adblue is serious, but we can stop it going critical" (December 12, 2021) <https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-diesel-additive-adblue-is-serious-but-we-can-stop-it-going-critical-173588 https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-diesel-ad...>
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]

by chii 2y ago

ggm 2y ago

I think Simons point was that afford and need equipoise. There's also substitution going on all the time, and innovation. Battery chemistry has changed massively over the life of batteries for EV (the thing most often cited as a modern day Ehrlich/Simons bet) Ehrlich thought need would exceed afford at scale. And that it would have massive societal repercussions. Well, it just didn't historically, and there's no reason to believe the (misnamed) rare earths and metallic ores are limiting things for any reason other than price motivation. This last decade we had a temporary chip shortage affect car production rates worldwide. Localised supply chains for Diesel additive have been a problem. There were discussions about ring fencing nitrate fertiliser as a strategic supply. None of these are "limits to growth" stories. Capital investment followed. That said, the price of copper spiked enough to make people start stealing it again worldwide.

selimthegrim 2y ago
Which diesel additive?
- dredmorbius 2y ago
  Likely diesel exhaust fluid, comprised largely of urea, used to mitigate NOx emissions which are a consequence of diesel engine's high compression and combustion temperatures. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid>
  - dredmorbius 2y ago
    And some quick DDG'ing confirms: "Australia’s shortage of diesel additive Adblue is serious, but we can stop it going critical" (December 12, 2021) <https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-diesel-additive-adblue-is-serious-but-we-can-stop-it-going-critical-173588 https://theconversation.com/australias-shortage-of-diesel-ad...>

aaron695 2y ago

[dead]