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I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still
by ksec 2y ago
I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation.
Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off soon ( which I doubt will happen ), we should still have at least another 5 years of these GPU improvements. We will have another 5 - 10x performance increase.
And they have foreshadowed their PC entry with MediaTek Partnership. ( I wonder why they dont just acquired Mediatek ) and may be even Smartphone or Tablet with Geforce GPU IP.
The future is exciting.
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- AlotOfReading 2y agoThe same industry opposition that killed the ARM acquisition would kill a mediatek acquisition.
- satellite2 2y agoThe acquisition of ARM would have put Nvidia in the position of being able to impose to competitors uncompetitive restrictions on a quasi monopolistic market. Is it the case with MediaTek?
- AlotOfReading 2y agoMediatek is the largest smartphone SoC manufacturer, so yes. They're a supplier for Apple and the biggest competitor to Qualcomm, the two companies that were the most vocal in opposing the ARM acquisition.
- brookst 2y agoMy guess is mediatek’s margins are much lower so an acquisition would tank Nvidia’s stock price by leading to lower returns. That and/or not wanting the distraction of operating mediatek’s many businesses that aren’t aligned to Nvidia core competence.
- bloomingkales 2y agoThere was something eerily epic about his assertions. To suggest that they are all of those companies is pretty wild. AI is bewitching.
- WeylandYutani 2y agoPrepare for Butlerian Jihad.
- dehrmann 2y agoI was taking these sort of improvements for granted. They'll certainly make ai cheaper, but most of the cost is up-front for generative models, and the models don't seem to be getting linearly better.
- ksec 2y ago>I was taking these sort of improvements for granted. A lot of people would think so. In reality had Smartphone ( iPhone ) not taken off. The PC market alone would not be able to sustain the cost of innovation and Moore's Law would have ended at 14nm and we would have to wait 3 to 4 years for every node. Smartphone along with all the adjacent work on Internet infrastructure scaled us to 3nm. I wrote about both of these in 2014 and was expecting some slow down by 3nm. Now AI will provide the Capex to scale us to 1nm and beyond.
- kcb 2y agoA major chip acquisition by Nvidia will probably never get global regulatory approval. I guess the question is what does Mediatek provide in the partnership. Nvidia is well versed in developing ARM SoCs already.
- bgnn 2y ago5g, wifi, bluetooth etc. what makes a mobile processor monile processor other than the CPU
- knowitnone 2y agoyeah, those are just modules that anybody can just buy. NVIDIA already makes jetsons which are basically SBCs with decent GPU. so again, what does Mediatek provide?
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- downrightmike 2y agoMonopoly accusation shield. "But we're sharing the tech!"
- touisteur 2y agoMaybe a sign of NVIDIA divesting low-margin SoCs or finding a way to be in nextgen phone chips ? (Edit:) solidifying the cuda moat in phone SoCs too ?
- bgnn 2y agolooking back at the news releases: Mediatek seems to bring CPU design expertise on the table, which makes sense, they have much more experience and know-how in this than Nvidia. Mediatek is a top tier company with excellent engineering talent. Ideally Nvidia would acquire such a company so that they can challenge AMD and Qualcomm better but this doesn't seem to fit for their strategy to keep it small and focused. Hemce such a partnership works better for them.
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- VHRanger 2y agoHow would shrinking the processor size help if the current GPU generation is already completely bottlenecked by VRAM bandwidth saturation? We aren't seeing nearly the same gains on VRAM bandwidth as we are on compute bandwidth
- ffsm8 2y agoWell, at least this generation almost doubles that bandwidth, right?
- jsheard 2y agoThe flagship is an outlier there since it went from 384bit to 512bit memory. There was no such bus width increase for the rest of the stack so the gains are more modest, 4080 to 5080 is only a 34% improvement.
- may_mccheese 2y agothe solution is people will figure how to burn their models onto ASICs cheaply. apple model on iphone, google model on android, etc. This is tantalizing to businesses (1) you have YOUR company's model on lockdown as you see fit (2) iterations or improvements to the model mean you'll need to buy buy buy
- bufferoverflow 2y ago"only a 34% improvement" - listen to yourself, man. It's amazing we still get significant improvements in every generation.
- fuzzfactor 2y agoThe original idea behind shrinking the feature size is to make more money, by getting a greater nuber of chips from the same wafer.
- ninetyninenine 2y agoIs GPU improvement is driven more by gaming then by AI hype? Gaming is the biggest industry and there is real money coming from that. Does speculative money from VCs actually overshadow actual money spent by consumers? I know stock prices is driven by AI hype but how much does it actually effect the bottom line of Nvidia? I think GPU improvement happens regardless of AI.
- l33tman 2y ago"NVIDIA’s financial report reveals that its data center business revenue in FY2Q25 grew by 154% YoY, outpacing other segments and raising its contribution to total revenue to nearly 88%." Gaming almost doesn't even register in Nvidias revenue anymore. But I do think Jensen is smart enough to not drop gaming completely, he knows the AI hype might come and go and competitors might finally scrounge up some working SDKs for the other platforms.
- kbolino 2y agoML was big before LLMs and nVidia was already making a killing from selling expensive GPUs that would never draw a single polygon ca 2015. They've been hobbling FP64 (double precision) support in cheaper "consumer" GPUs, to prevent their use in most data centers, for a long time too.
- kbolino 2y agoLooking into this a bit, it seems that nVidia was still making most of its money from "gaming" as recently as early 2022. I'd suspect that, if crypto mining could be separated out, the transition point actually happened a couple of years earlier, but nevertheless the datacenter segment didn't become dominant until about 2-2.5 years ago. It existed well before then, but wasn't that big.
- AnotherGoodName 2y agohttps://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2025/Q325/Rev_by_Mkt_Qtrly_Trend_Q325.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2025/Q... Datacenter revenue alone is ~10x of gaming. The datacenter revenue is thought to have literally ~100x the earnings all up (H100 and 4090 have similar transistor counts but the H100 sells for over $30k while the 4090 sells for $2k which indicates huge margins). Gaming is pretty much insignificant for nvidia. That’s why nvidias stock has 10x’ed recently and their PE looks better now than it did 5 years ago despite that stock increase. They found a new market that dwarfs their old market.
- re-thc 2y ago> I wonder why they dont just acquired Mediatek It wouldn't be approved by country that Mediatek resides in. For the same reasons they won't approve a TSMC sale either.