4 ms·

Canadian here. It's certainly not normal. News broke yesterday that this was coming. The opposition kept tabling no confidence votes and trying to get an early

Canadian here. It's certainly not normal. News broke yesterday that this was coming. The opposition kept tabling no confidence votes and trying to get an early election called... and Trudeau's approval rating is so low that it might even be the lowest of any Prime Minister in history (though I don't know so if someone does by all means fact check that). However, our upcoming election is this year. It certainly does not surprise me that Trudeau is stepping down from leader of the Liberal party in light of the polling, since the polls are predicting that if an election were called today, the conservatives would win in such a landslide that I don't think many countries have even seen that before. Of course polling and actual election results are two very different things... but I think the Liberal party sees the writing on the wall. If they hope to have any shot of getting re-elected, they can't do it with Trudeau at the head. ... but that doesn't necessarily mean that we all saw him resigning as PM incumbent coming. He's also proroguing parliament until March. This is probably a move to get the other parties to step back and "STFU"; to not pass any motions during the party shift (particularly related to calling an early election etc). Lastly, as others have said, the PM position is usually held for an average of 9-10 years (and that's multiple terms .. most incumbents just get re-elected into second and third terms). Trudeau was elected in 2015 so he's about due to exit anyway if we go by averages (though some have served longer).

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
What does "prorogued" do here? Does it prevent a no-confidence vote? And, what would a no-confidence vote do?
- gspencley 2y ago
  It means it is suspended. (slightly off topic: I have no idea why tf my comment got down-voted. I'm not even expressing any personal opinions about Trudeau or politics. I'm just answering the question as factually as I can from the point of view of a Canadian who is observing what is going on.. I have data and sources for everything I said .. including how low Trudeau's approval rating is as well as the polling... the only thing I wasn't sure of is how his rating compares to that of previous PMs. Thing is, I even know people who have voted Liberal their entire lives, and plan to in the upcoming election regardless of who the leader is, and even they can't shut up about how much they despise him. So regardless of your partisan affiliation, I don't think I even said anything that most Canadians would find the least bit controversial).
- fidotron 2y ago
  Prorogued means parliament will not meet, and so cannot hold any votes. Right now it is purely being used to prevent such a vote since there is a majority in parliament that would now vote against the government in such a situation, which in turn provokes an election. During his delusional ramblings (and that is no exaggeration) Trudeau said that the GG was persuaded to prorogue to the 25th March because of the no confidence vote held back in December which he survived because the NDP supported him. The NDP no longer will support the Trudeau gov (announced in writing about 10 days after the last vote), coincidentally just as their leader qualifies for a nice parliamentary pension scheme. The whole thing is a horrible exercise in the worst stereotypes of champagne socialism.
  - wmoxam 2y ago
    Tying NDP support to their leader's pension is silly/lazy. As part of their deal with the Liberals, the NDP had some real power to implement legislation. If an election happened tomorrow the NDP would lose that power. Unhitching from Trudeau at this moment is a good move for the NDP, they want to distance themselves from Trudeau's unpopularity before the next election. That Trudeau is now leaving benefits them even more, they could conceivably continue to support the government now that it's missing its most unpopular member, or they could pull the plug right away if they think they can steal away some Liberal votes during a snap election
    - fidotron 2y ago
      > Tying NDP support to their leader's pension is silly/lazy. It really isn't - the alternative is it's the most unbelievable happy coincidence. You have to wonder how blatant the personal moneygrabbing by Lib and NDP leaders has to be before their respective support bases actually accept what is going on in their faces. Those leaders see the parties purely as a way to secure power to use to gain personal wealth at the expense of the populous.
      - wmoxam 2y ago
        > the alternative is it's the most unbelievable happy coincidence It's not though.The NDP were faced with two choices: 1) Support the Liberals and get some of their policies pushed through 2) Support the Conservatives wish to call an early election in which the Conservative are sure to win a majority leaving the NDP powerless The reason why the NDP choose this moment to pull their support is that it's an election year, so there's little chance any more NDP policy would be passed. One person's pension (a relatively wealthy person at that) is just a fun partisan talking point for Conservatives.
- brianbest101 2y ago
  [dead]
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
1% below Stephen Harper, which is bad, but not unprecedented bad. I think if the liberals can delay the election until October, their results won't be so bad, especially if Trump keeps saying dumb things down in America (as he is prone to do), making alignment with the conservatives less popular (they will still win, just not the huge landslide that they can take now).
- 3vidence 2y ago
  The approval rating seems like an unhelpful metric here if the actual resulting election is such a landslide. Also I think there is a bit of a different here between Harpers Conservatives and Tredeaus Liberals. In 2015 people were actually really excited and hopeful about Justin Trudeau (sounds weird to say but it is true). He was voted in "positively" based on legalizing cannabis & election reform. 2025 is a very different spot, Pollieve is not a particularly popular politician. The singular reason they will win in a land slide is that people HATE Trudeau in a way I haven't seen in my life. The liberals really should take a long hard look at themselves and re-evaluate. On a more local level the Ontario Liberals actually just collapsed a while ago and haven't even been relevant in politics ever since. This isn't just the normal trend.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    > they will win in a land slide is that people HATE Trudeau in a way I haven't seen in my life. Harper was widely hated.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

What does "prorogued" do here? Does it prevent a no-confidence vote? And, what would a no-confidence vote do?

gspencley 2y ago
It means it is suspended. (slightly off topic: I have no idea why tf my comment got down-voted. I'm not even expressing any personal opinions about Trudeau or politics. I'm just answering the question as factually as I can from the point of view of a Canadian who is observing what is going on.. I have data and sources for everything I said .. including how low Trudeau's approval rating is as well as the polling... the only thing I wasn't sure of is how his rating compares to that of previous PMs. Thing is, I even know people who have voted Liberal their entire lives, and plan to in the upcoming election regardless of who the leader is, and even they can't shut up about how much they despise him. So regardless of your partisan affiliation, I don't think I even said anything that most Canadians would find the least bit controversial).
fidotron 2y ago
Prorogued means parliament will not meet, and so cannot hold any votes. Right now it is purely being used to prevent such a vote since there is a majority in parliament that would now vote against the government in such a situation, which in turn provokes an election. During his delusional ramblings (and that is no exaggeration) Trudeau said that the GG was persuaded to prorogue to the 25th March because of the no confidence vote held back in December which he survived because the NDP supported him. The NDP no longer will support the Trudeau gov (announced in writing about 10 days after the last vote), coincidentally just as their leader qualifies for a nice parliamentary pension scheme. The whole thing is a horrible exercise in the worst stereotypes of champagne socialism.
- wmoxam 2y ago
  Tying NDP support to their leader's pension is silly/lazy. As part of their deal with the Liberals, the NDP had some real power to implement legislation. If an election happened tomorrow the NDP would lose that power. Unhitching from Trudeau at this moment is a good move for the NDP, they want to distance themselves from Trudeau's unpopularity before the next election. That Trudeau is now leaving benefits them even more, they could conceivably continue to support the government now that it's missing its most unpopular member, or they could pull the plug right away if they think they can steal away some Liberal votes during a snap election
  - fidotron 2y ago
    > Tying NDP support to their leader's pension is silly/lazy. It really isn't - the alternative is it's the most unbelievable happy coincidence. You have to wonder how blatant the personal moneygrabbing by Lib and NDP leaders has to be before their respective support bases actually accept what is going on in their faces. Those leaders see the parties purely as a way to secure power to use to gain personal wealth at the expense of the populous.
    - wmoxam 2y ago
      > the alternative is it's the most unbelievable happy coincidence It's not though.The NDP were faced with two choices: 1) Support the Liberals and get some of their policies pushed through 2) Support the Conservatives wish to call an early election in which the Conservative are sure to win a majority leaving the NDP powerless The reason why the NDP choose this moment to pull their support is that it's an election year, so there's little chance any more NDP policy would be passed. One person's pension (a relatively wealthy person at that) is just a fun partisan talking point for Conservatives.
brianbest101 2y ago
[dead]

seanmcdirmid 2y ago

1% below Stephen Harper, which is bad, but not unprecedented bad. I think if the liberals can delay the election until October, their results won't be so bad, especially if Trump keeps saying dumb things down in America (as he is prone to do), making alignment with the conservatives less popular (they will still win, just not the huge landslide that they can take now).

3vidence 2y ago
The approval rating seems like an unhelpful metric here if the actual resulting election is such a landslide. Also I think there is a bit of a different here between Harpers Conservatives and Tredeaus Liberals. In 2015 people were actually really excited and hopeful about Justin Trudeau (sounds weird to say but it is true). He was voted in "positively" based on legalizing cannabis & election reform. 2025 is a very different spot, Pollieve is not a particularly popular politician. The singular reason they will win in a land slide is that people HATE Trudeau in a way I haven't seen in my life. The liberals really should take a long hard look at themselves and re-evaluate. On a more local level the Ontario Liberals actually just collapsed a while ago and haven't even been relevant in politics ever since. This isn't just the normal trend.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  > they will win in a land slide is that people HATE Trudeau in a way I haven't seen in my life. Harper was widely hated.