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There have been lots of reports that Israel is ‘advising’ the UAE in building their airbase in Socotra. Though I’ve not seen any admission of it outside of cons

There have been lots of reports that Israel is ‘advising’ the UAE in building their airbase in Socotra. Though I’ve not seen any admission of it outside of conservative Israeli or anti-Israeli media. The White House told Congress of boots on the ground in Yemen about a year ago (but the DoD walked that back). I’d probably not try to argue there are no Israeli or American intelligence or military officers in Yemen. Whether they are in range of Ansar Allah or qualify as an occupation force is probably a semantic argument where each side can reasonably claim honesty.

tptacek 2y ago
I don't think Socotra is salient to anything happening inside Yemen. I'm pretty confident Ansar Allah isn't fighting Americans and Israelis! Or, for the last several years, for that matter, Saudis or Emiratis.
- underdeserver 2y ago
  Well, they've been firing ballistic missiles multiple times a week at Tel Aviv for a few weeks now.
  - tptacek 2y ago
    They've been shooting at ships in the Red Sea for the last year, too. I'm sure whatever missiles Iran gives them, they'll be happy to shoot off, the same way they're happy to launch QF SA-67s at American drones. But their foot soldiers are busy inside Yemen, killing Yemenis.
    - underdeserver 2y ago
      Agreed on both counts. I'm just saying there's a bit of a difference between shooting at a crew of 15 sailors once in a while, and sending a million+ civilians sleeping in their beds to bomb shelters (and destroying an elementary school). https://www.timesofisrael.com/lucky-there-were-no-children-school-near-tel-aviv-ravaged-by-houthi-missile-attack/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/lucky-there-were-no-children-s...
      - tptacek 2y ago
        You're right. I'm fixated on the idea of Ansar Allah recruiting foot soldiers to fight America (or whatever); just: that's not why they recruit foot soldiers. Thanks to both of you for the clarity.
wolf550e 2y ago
Please, I am very interested to know how the side that reasonably claims honesty explains how parts of Yemen are occupied by Israel. The presence of Mossad spies who I have no knowledge of but I will just assume exist and are trying to find out where the Houthi leadership is or where the ballistic missiles are, so Israel can eliminate them, are an occupying force?
- tptacek 2y ago
  I think they're just saying it'd be hard to disprove the presence of Special Forces on the ground in Yemen, given that both NATO and Israel have cause to be there (Yemen being a declared belligerent to both). That discussion gets mired in speculation very quickly, so: I'm happy to stipulate that someone could be lurking outside the launcher site on the side of the Sana'a-Sa'da Highway waiting to plant explosives or whatever. My point is just: Ansar Allah fields an army of roughly 200,000 (including the children). That army does not exist to fight Israel or the US (look at a map). What it's there to do is to take Marib, Taizz, and Aden, and to prevent the secession of South Yemen, which has become the stronghold of the ROYG-in-exile and hosts most of Yemen's extractive industry as well as its largest ports. The basic idea of Khomeinism, which Ansar Allah proudly patterns itself on, is to institute a centralized authoritarian government managed by religious leaders while positioning the country against western imperialism (as a distraction from what's happening within the country). In Iran, this took the form of picking a gigantic fight with the US before losing a half million of its own people in a pointlessly prolonged fight with Iraq. In Yemen, it's a proclamation that Ansar Allah will liberate Palestine while murdering several hundred thousand Yemenis over the course of 12 years. The current situation is pretty great for Iran. There's an open debate about how reliant Ansar Allah is on the IRGC QF, which creates some deniability. NATO is flying all sorts of stuff over and boating all sorts of stuff around Yemen, so Iran gets to use it as a playground for their new loitering munitions and anti-ship weapons, but with Yemenis pushing the buttons. If Ansar Allah actually managed to strike any kind of real blow against NATO or against Israel, my guess is that it would take less than a couple weeks for the aggrieved power to hit the Houthis so hard you'd need a HEPA filter to collect what would be left of Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. Aside: for anybody not familiar with Socotra: it's an island out in the middle of the Arabian Sea, physically closer to Somalia than Yemen, notable mostly for being a sort of Galapagos of East Africa and a major tourist destination (even during the middle of the civil war, because it's not meaningfully integrated with Yemeni politics). Socotra does not matter.

tptacek 2y ago

I don't think Socotra is salient to anything happening inside Yemen. I'm pretty confident Ansar Allah isn't fighting Americans and Israelis! Or, for the last several years, for that matter, Saudis or Emiratis.

underdeserver 2y ago
Well, they've been firing ballistic missiles multiple times a week at Tel Aviv for a few weeks now.
- tptacek 2y ago
  They've been shooting at ships in the Red Sea for the last year, too. I'm sure whatever missiles Iran gives them, they'll be happy to shoot off, the same way they're happy to launch QF SA-67s at American drones. But their foot soldiers are busy inside Yemen, killing Yemenis.
  - underdeserver 2y ago
    Agreed on both counts. I'm just saying there's a bit of a difference between shooting at a crew of 15 sailors once in a while, and sending a million+ civilians sleeping in their beds to bomb shelters (and destroying an elementary school). https://www.timesofisrael.com/lucky-there-were-no-children-school-near-tel-aviv-ravaged-by-houthi-missile-attack/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/lucky-there-were-no-children-s...
    - tptacek 2y ago
      You're right. I'm fixated on the idea of Ansar Allah recruiting foot soldiers to fight America (or whatever); just: that's not why they recruit foot soldiers. Thanks to both of you for the clarity.

wolf550e 2y ago

Please, I am very interested to know how the side that reasonably claims honesty explains how parts of Yemen are occupied by Israel. The presence of Mossad spies who I have no knowledge of but I will just assume exist and are trying to find out where the Houthi leadership is or where the ballistic missiles are, so Israel can eliminate them, are an occupying force?

tptacek 2y ago
I think they're just saying it'd be hard to disprove the presence of Special Forces on the ground in Yemen, given that both NATO and Israel have cause to be there (Yemen being a declared belligerent to both). That discussion gets mired in speculation very quickly, so: I'm happy to stipulate that someone could be lurking outside the launcher site on the side of the Sana'a-Sa'da Highway waiting to plant explosives or whatever. My point is just: Ansar Allah fields an army of roughly 200,000 (including the children). That army does not exist to fight Israel or the US (look at a map). What it's there to do is to take Marib, Taizz, and Aden, and to prevent the secession of South Yemen, which has become the stronghold of the ROYG-in-exile and hosts most of Yemen's extractive industry as well as its largest ports. The basic idea of Khomeinism, which Ansar Allah proudly patterns itself on, is to institute a centralized authoritarian government managed by religious leaders while positioning the country against western imperialism (as a distraction from what's happening within the country). In Iran, this took the form of picking a gigantic fight with the US before losing a half million of its own people in a pointlessly prolonged fight with Iraq. In Yemen, it's a proclamation that Ansar Allah will liberate Palestine while murdering several hundred thousand Yemenis over the course of 12 years. The current situation is pretty great for Iran. There's an open debate about how reliant Ansar Allah is on the IRGC QF, which creates some deniability. NATO is flying all sorts of stuff over and boating all sorts of stuff around Yemen, so Iran gets to use it as a playground for their new loitering munitions and anti-ship weapons, but with Yemenis pushing the buttons. If Ansar Allah actually managed to strike any kind of real blow against NATO or against Israel, my guess is that it would take less than a couple weeks for the aggrieved power to hit the Houthis so hard you'd need a HEPA filter to collect what would be left of Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. Aside: for anybody not familiar with Socotra: it's an island out in the middle of the Arabian Sea, physically closer to Somalia than Yemen, notable mostly for being a sort of Galapagos of East Africa and a major tourist destination (even during the middle of the civil war, because it's not meaningfully integrated with Yemeni politics). Socotra does not matter.