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> everyone arguing the point that china cant overtake U.S. in economy Surely nobody halfway serious is arguing that. The faction about to take power in the USA

by smcl 2y ago

> everyone arguing the point that china cant overtake U.S. in economy Surely nobody halfway serious is arguing that. The faction about to take power in the USA is tilting at the "woke ideology" windmill, talks openly of deporting a big chunk of the workforce and does not seem to understand how tariffs work. Even if you ignore all that, China has 4-5x the population (for now!) and is by all measures has a highly developed, productive and growing economy. What argument can there possibly be in favour of China falling back, other than maybe the aforementioned demographic issues.

kasey_junk 2y ago
The demographic issue is the big one. But there are several others that show up in serious financial circles. Particularly the domestic fiscal policy around debt and investment, currency liberalization and entrepreneurial risk vs reward. The Chinese government is walking a very fine line with their private enterprise policies and it’s not one that is well understood. But there is quite a bit of concern that if China gets more autocratic it may hinder further productivity and growth (right as the demographic issue hits in earnest).
audunw 2y ago
Chinas total population isn’t really that relevant for what their economy will end up looking like. China is essentially a handful of moderately wealthy coastal areas (perhaps comparable to USA in population but still far behind in GDP/capita) and a huge inland area of very poor people. There’s not much reason to think all those 100s of millions of people will become as wealthy as the average American or European any time soon. It’s not just demographics. Geography is a huge challenge as well. I don’t know if China will “fall back”. But stagnation seems very likely. If they backslide it’ll probably be due to some political turmoil, like what happened in when the Soviet Union collapsed. Nearly impossible to predict. If you look at what’s happening with regular people inside China, there does seem to be a sense that things are getting worse, not better. I have friends with family in China that said exactly that this New Year’s Eve.. There’s a lot of incidents with people driving their cars into crowds of people as a revenge against society, and other similarly worrying signs. Many factories are being moved out of China. It might not be enough to show up on statistics yet, but it’s a process that has undeniably started and will probably accelerate. China has a huge bet on batteries, EVs and solar panels to make up for what they’re loosing. That’s going really well right now. But I don’t think it’s a winning strategy long term. USA and EU seems to be wanting to protect their industries and on-shore or near-shore a lot of that stuff. The manufacturing of those things are highly automated. Eventually most of the materials will come from local recycling. China could get a very strong and balanced economy if they had a good strategy based on self sustainable local consumption, rather can just export. But I just don’t see that they’re taking that seriously. Most of the policies are still geared towards supporting/subsidising higher exports.
- mahirsaid 2y ago
  This will balance its self out. One thing they have we don't is monopoly control they allow you to have monopoly if it serves well. we have that but we turn on monopolies when they get too big, they were already too big when they attached the name monopoly to the big players. i suspect if we look at data going back thirty years you will see the gap far bigger and now the gap is rather widening or growing with each end of the gap getting thicker. what i mean is, the poor were really really poor and now we can look at data and say that they are just poor with avenues of fixing that issues. They do have the economies within their country to fix poverty as its far more fruitful versus the U.S.. you either work in fast food or have a masters degree making $70,000. this isn't great considering the U.S. is a rich country
Yeul 2y ago
This so much. If America was serious about fighting China they would be signing free trade agreements with Asian countries and investing money into Africa. Instead Trump is angrily tweeting about how he's going to make everyone pay. The racist isolationists are back in the halls of power.
mahirsaid 2y ago
I don't understand those that argue this point. What are the facts you have and evidence that U.S. has the capabilities to match growth that of China. Its so beyond explaining that i would just agree and walk away. China is a modern marvel the growth within thirties to date is remarkable does not matter if you don't agree with their government. They mean business right now!!

by smcl 2y ago

kasey_junk 2y ago

The demographic issue is the big one. But there are several others that show up in serious financial circles. Particularly the domestic fiscal policy around debt and investment, currency liberalization and entrepreneurial risk vs reward. The Chinese government is walking a very fine line with their private enterprise policies and it’s not one that is well understood. But there is quite a bit of concern that if China gets more autocratic it may hinder further productivity and growth (right as the demographic issue hits in earnest).

audunw 2y ago

Chinas total population isn’t really that relevant for what their economy will end up looking like. China is essentially a handful of moderately wealthy coastal areas (perhaps comparable to USA in population but still far behind in GDP/capita) and a huge inland area of very poor people. There’s not much reason to think all those 100s of millions of people will become as wealthy as the average American or European any time soon. It’s not just demographics. Geography is a huge challenge as well. I don’t know if China will “fall back”. But stagnation seems very likely. If they backslide it’ll probably be due to some political turmoil, like what happened in when the Soviet Union collapsed. Nearly impossible to predict. If you look at what’s happening with regular people inside China, there does seem to be a sense that things are getting worse, not better. I have friends with family in China that said exactly that this New Year’s Eve.. There’s a lot of incidents with people driving their cars into crowds of people as a revenge against society, and other similarly worrying signs. Many factories are being moved out of China. It might not be enough to show up on statistics yet, but it’s a process that has undeniably started and will probably accelerate. China has a huge bet on batteries, EVs and solar panels to make up for what they’re loosing. That’s going really well right now. But I don’t think it’s a winning strategy long term. USA and EU seems to be wanting to protect their industries and on-shore or near-shore a lot of that stuff. The manufacturing of those things are highly automated. Eventually most of the materials will come from local recycling. China could get a very strong and balanced economy if they had a good strategy based on self sustainable local consumption, rather can just export. But I just don’t see that they’re taking that seriously. Most of the policies are still geared towards supporting/subsidising higher exports.

mahirsaid 2y ago
This will balance its self out. One thing they have we don't is monopoly control they allow you to have monopoly if it serves well. we have that but we turn on monopolies when they get too big, they were already too big when they attached the name monopoly to the big players. i suspect if we look at data going back thirty years you will see the gap far bigger and now the gap is rather widening or growing with each end of the gap getting thicker. what i mean is, the poor were really really poor and now we can look at data and say that they are just poor with avenues of fixing that issues. They do have the economies within their country to fix poverty as its far more fruitful versus the U.S.. you either work in fast food or have a masters degree making $70,000. this isn't great considering the U.S. is a rich country

Yeul 2y ago

This so much. If America was serious about fighting China they would be signing free trade agreements with Asian countries and investing money into Africa. Instead Trump is angrily tweeting about how he's going to make everyone pay. The racist isolationists are back in the halls of power.

mahirsaid 2y ago

I don't understand those that argue this point. What are the facts you have and evidence that U.S. has the capabilities to match growth that of China. Its so beyond explaining that i would just agree and walk away. China is a modern marvel the growth within thirties to date is remarkable does not matter if you don't agree with their government. They mean business right now!!