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> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and al

> making drones / evs / high end electornics China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines. > 80% GDP China's demographics will more than HALF to 500M by 2100, if not earlier, while US grows to close to 400M by then. Someone actually theorizes that China's population is already only 800M right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR5F_8dSjOw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR5F_8dSjOw Also, a lot of that GDP is debatable in 2024, when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on.

FooBarWidget 2y ago
So why aren't US and allies demonstrably replicating EVs (and other kinds of green technology) quickly? Tesla is still pretty much the only serious player. Why are CEOs of major western carmakers painting a very different picture than what you describe here? Where are the serious EU/US battery makers that are globally competitive? It looks to me like the EU has chosen the worst of all options: put up tarriff barriers while also not having serious domestic EV makers, and also not stimulating domestic EV development.
- dboreham 2y ago
  Western consumers don't want to buy EVs (mostly).
  - FooBarWidget 2y ago
    Yeah I mean, with the sad state of the Dutch electric grid, the poor coverage of chargers, and the disappearing consumer subsidies, I wouldn't want either. So why aren't governments also building the infrastructure they need to help stimulate demand for EVs? Not taking global climate disaster serious enough? Building EVs and supporting infrastructure is a lot more complicated than just having a bunch of blueprints.
    - PeterStuer 2y ago
      Because the agenda is not transitioning the current fleet to EV, it is making private transport a privilege of the top percent in the process. Personally, I am not sure yet whether I like this or not. I can see good arguments for and against. I wish it would be an honest open policy instead of the current vice grip of on the one hand passing aggressive phase out timelines of ICE through regulation, and on the other doing nothing to prepare a grid for mass EV adoption. I can see why it wouldn't pass a democratic vote, but I also think chances of this passing under the covers are fairly slim as any time one of their roadmapped phases comes near they usually have to postpone them to appease the public.
  - slt2021 2y ago
    They would buy Chinese EVs since they are much cheaper than ICE
  - DangitBobby 2y ago
    Not at the prices offered.
  - vachina 2y ago
    Wrong. Western consumers thinks EVs are for tree huggers and prefer their 6L pickup trucks.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
eunos 2y ago
> dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly Laugh in Northvolt > $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines Considering that there are less than 5 countries on Earth that can fab 7nm semiconductors, that aint bad.
- kayewiggin 2y ago
  RIP Northvolt from Sweden and The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-technology-china-vanadium https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-techno.... However: - Battery Startup Opens Chicago Plant as US Seeks to Curb Reliance on China https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago-plant-as-us-seeks-to-curb-reliance-on-china https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago... - Our own YC: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy - China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out—’Today, we are like lepers’ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-startup-scene-dead-investors-170658683.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-startup-scene-dead-inve...
  - eunos 2y ago
    > RIP Northvolt Northvolt isnt lacking funding (pedantically they are, else they wouldnt be bankrupt) or clients, but know-how for scaling putting aside some conspiracy theories about Chinese equipments. Turns out scaling isnt easy. vanadium redox flow isnt very big yet even for Energy Storage System Side note: The tendency US and Westernin general to depend on Wunderwaffe tech (Vanadium Redox! Solid State Battery!) is quite amusing. > China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out Turns out Emperor Pooh dislike get-rich-quick startup mentality and yet another useless apps. He wouldnt mind hard tech bro like Ren Zhengfei or Wang Chuanfu though. P.S. Watch the robotic space, things might get interesting in a year or two.
    - tpm 2y ago
      > Side note: The tendency US and Westernin general to depend on Wunderwaffe tech is quite amusing. Japan too. It's a sign of helplessness and desperation, as much as I would prefer not to see that. They procrastinated and now see themselves behind.
roenxi 2y ago
> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on. Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop. I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper is not one of them. What I'm guessing you meant to say is that retirees were led to put too much of their savings into the housing market and are discovering there is a glut. Which is tragic for them. But prices dropping is a good thing; the unachievable ideal is a utopia where everything is free, ie, 100% deflation.
- kayewiggin 2y ago
  China's real estate prices having dropped 50% or more has been accompanied by/caused by wages being slashed 50% or more, and increasing unemployment rate, such as 30%+ for youth. Here are some good posts on why nobody wants deflation: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is_deflation_regarded_as_a_bad_thing/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is... https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_someone_explain_to_me_why_deflation_would_be/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_so... https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont_see_how_deflation_if_bad/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont... also coincidentally and recently, China’s Xi Jinping asked ‘What’s so bad about deflation?’ amid economic slowdown https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-jinping-growth-slump-consumer-producer-prices/ https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-ji...
  - roenxi 2y ago
    So some might suggest that the problem is wages being slashed by >50%? Falling real wages are actually a problem. And, AFAIK by definition, are not influenced by inflation or deflation. But if wages had fallen by <40% and prices by >50% then the overall situation was probably improving. A bit chaotic to be comfortable, but not fundamentally worse. And there is an unemployment problem too, obviously.
  - suraci 2y ago
protomolecule 2y ago
>a lot of that GDP is debatable in 2024 While the share of services in the US GDP is more than 3/4. What will you do with all these expensive NY lawyers when push comes to shove? Sue China's drones?
Saline9515 2y ago
Northvolt is a good example of why it is not so simple to replicate China's success in lithium battery production.

FooBarWidget 2y ago

So why aren't US and allies demonstrably replicating EVs (and other kinds of green technology) quickly? Tesla is still pretty much the only serious player. Why are CEOs of major western carmakers painting a very different picture than what you describe here? Where are the serious EU/US battery makers that are globally competitive? It looks to me like the EU has chosen the worst of all options: put up tarriff barriers while also not having serious domestic EV makers, and also not stimulating domestic EV development.

dboreham 2y ago
Western consumers don't want to buy EVs (mostly).
- FooBarWidget 2y ago
  Yeah I mean, with the sad state of the Dutch electric grid, the poor coverage of chargers, and the disappearing consumer subsidies, I wouldn't want either. So why aren't governments also building the infrastructure they need to help stimulate demand for EVs? Not taking global climate disaster serious enough? Building EVs and supporting infrastructure is a lot more complicated than just having a bunch of blueprints.
  - PeterStuer 2y ago
    Because the agenda is not transitioning the current fleet to EV, it is making private transport a privilege of the top percent in the process. Personally, I am not sure yet whether I like this or not. I can see good arguments for and against. I wish it would be an honest open policy instead of the current vice grip of on the one hand passing aggressive phase out timelines of ICE through regulation, and on the other doing nothing to prepare a grid for mass EV adoption. I can see why it wouldn't pass a democratic vote, but I also think chances of this passing under the covers are fairly slim as any time one of their roadmapped phases comes near they usually have to postpone them to appease the public.
- slt2021 2y ago
  They would buy Chinese EVs since they are much cheaper than ICE
- DangitBobby 2y ago
  Not at the prices offered.
- vachina 2y ago
  Wrong. Western consumers thinks EVs are for tree huggers and prefer their 6L pickup trucks.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

eunos 2y ago

> dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly Laugh in Northvolt > $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines Considering that there are less than 5 countries on Earth that can fab 7nm semiconductors, that aint bad.

kayewiggin 2y ago
RIP Northvolt from Sweden and The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-technology-china-vanadium https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-techno.... However: - Battery Startup Opens Chicago Plant as US Seeks to Curb Reliance on China https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago-plant-as-us-seeks-to-curb-reliance-on-china https://www.nanograf.com/media/battery-startup-opens-chicago... - Our own YC: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/energy - China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out—’Today, we are like lepers’ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-startup-scene-dead-investors-170658683.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-startup-scene-dead-inve...
- eunos 2y ago
  > RIP Northvolt Northvolt isnt lacking funding (pedantically they are, else they wouldnt be bankrupt) or clients, but know-how for scaling putting aside some conspiracy theories about Chinese equipments. Turns out scaling isnt easy. vanadium redox flow isnt very big yet even for Energy Storage System Side note: The tendency US and Westernin general to depend on Wunderwaffe tech (Vanadium Redox! Solid State Battery!) is quite amusing. > China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out Turns out Emperor Pooh dislike get-rich-quick startup mentality and yet another useless apps. He wouldnt mind hard tech bro like Ren Zhengfei or Wang Chuanfu though. P.S. Watch the robotic space, things might get interesting in a year or two.
  - tpm 2y ago
    > Side note: The tendency US and Westernin general to depend on Wunderwaffe tech is quite amusing. Japan too. It's a sign of helplessness and desperation, as much as I would prefer not to see that. They procrastinated and now see themselves behind.

roenxi 2y ago

> when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on. Can other economies copy that part? I know a bunch of people who'd like to be able to afford more houses & more groceries at the same time. I'd like that, I can't realistically afford a house in the city I live in without a 50% price drop. I'm sure China has a lot of problems, but key goods getting cheaper is not one of them. What I'm guessing you meant to say is that retirees were led to put too much of their savings into the housing market and are discovering there is a glut. Which is tragic for them. But prices dropping is a good thing; the unachievable ideal is a utopia where everything is free, ie, 100% deflation.

kayewiggin 2y ago
China's real estate prices having dropped 50% or more has been accompanied by/caused by wages being slashed 50% or more, and increasing unemployment rate, such as 30%+ for youth. Here are some good posts on why nobody wants deflation: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is_deflation_regarded_as_a_bad_thing/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is... https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_someone_explain_to_me_why_deflation_would_be/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_so... https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont_see_how_deflation_if_bad/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont... also coincidentally and recently, China’s Xi Jinping asked ‘What’s so bad about deflation?’ amid economic slowdown https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-jinping-growth-slump-consumer-producer-prices/ https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-ji...
- roenxi 2y ago
  So some might suggest that the problem is wages being slashed by >50%? Falling real wages are actually a problem. And, AFAIK by definition, are not influenced by inflation or deflation. But if wages had fallen by <40% and prices by >50% then the overall situation was probably improving. A bit chaotic to be comfortable, but not fundamentally worse. And there is an unemployment problem too, obviously.
- suraci 2y ago

protomolecule 2y ago

>a lot of that GDP is debatable in 2024 While the share of services in the US GDP is more than 3/4. What will you do with all these expensive NY lawyers when push comes to shove? Sue China's drones?

Saline9515 2y ago

Northvolt is a good example of why it is not so simple to replicate China's success in lithium battery production.