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They should have added a pure random bot as a control. Or a monkey.
by aredox 2y ago
They should have added a pure random bot as a control.
Or a monkey.
- rozap 2y agoOr FISH. https://youtu.be/USKD3vPD6ZA?si=AGyGdPdSPpJezQJp https://youtu.be/USKD3vPD6ZA?si=AGyGdPdSPpJezQJp The scene towards the end where he pitches it to a bunch of hucksters is brilliant.
- lewj 2y agoOr just the S&P500 or something similar that acts as a default "if in doubt, chuck into here for relative safety".
- sunnynagra 2y agoAnother good suggestion I could implement is measuring against something like VOO, if all the money was invested in that instead of these individual trades.
- yapyap 2y ago> Or a monkey. or just a stocktrader haha
- byyoung3 2y agolol
- chronic026935 2y ago> or just a stocktrader haha Many quant trading firms make 50%-100% annual returns, each year, over the past 15-20 years. The secret is leverage. And they do not accept outside investor money. Many hedge funds outperform the market. However, the returns after fees, to the passive outside investor underperform S&P500. But yes, publicly traded active ETFs generally underperform. But counter example is VGT or QQQ, both historically outperformed S&P500.
- maximus-decimus 2y agoThe problem with looking at which funds over-perform is they just close the funds that under-perform so all the existing ones over-perform... by the sheer power of survivorship bias.
- WalterBright 2y agoPast performance is no predictor of future returns.
- chronic73940581 2y ago> Past performance is no predictor of future returns False. Why do people invest in real estate and S&P500 passive index funds? Because historically they go up.
- WalterBright 2y agoThat's of no predictive value for a day, a month, or even years.
- WalterBright 2y agoBTW, with the birth rates dropping well below replacement, a decline in the population is inevitable, and property values will drop.
- maximus-decimus 2y agoThat's assuming you don't fill the gap with immigration.
- Scoundreller 2y agoWouldn’t it be fairer to compare against a leveraged ETF? TQQQ (3x daily return leveraged nasdaq 100) is up 180x since its well-timed inception in 2010. Though that’s a bit over 40% annually.
- SubiculumCode 2y agoYou definitely need several active controls: 1. A broad mutual fund level buy and hodl. 2. The random buyer that you suggest. Active controls (vs passive ones) are an important concept in experimental design.
- kyleblarson 2y agoJim Cramer
- fredzel 2y agoOr a certain streamer AI
- wodderam 2y agoYou would need something like 1000 instances of each LLM putting on trades and have a 1000 random walks to judge an average sharpe ratio or something along those lines. As is, this means absolutely nothing and not understanding the problem. Adding a random walk to this would mean you have 4 random walks instead of 3. There is also the problem that it is tough to make a prediction for tomorrow that is better than today's close.
- omoikane 2y ago> a pure random bot Maybe compare with this guy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14713997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14713997 - Amazon engineer will let strangers manage his $50,000 stock portfolio 'forever' (2017-07-06, 172 comments)
- alberth 2y agoOr just compare it to S&P 500 performance.
- affyboi 2y agoYou can just compute Sharpe