8 ms·

So Russia has it's signs now on seizing Estonia?

by paul7986 2y ago

Arn_Thor 2y ago
Always did
- Animats 2y ago
  Russia annoying both Finland and Estonia may be unwise. Look at the geography. There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn. If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg. Or just slow things down by inspecting every ship for cable-cutting capability. NATO has already stepped up patrols in the Baltic Sea.[1] Right now, Russia doesn't have all that much military capability near St. Petersburg.[2] Some units are off at the Ukraine war. The Baltic Fleet is weaker than ever. There's a "Free Ingria" movement that wants to make all of Leningrad Oblast a separate country. It's not going anywhere without outside support. It might get some. [1] https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-cable-undersea-russia-sabotage-nato-6460b68ab5236d9892551867b024b0a0 https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-cable-undersea-ru... [2] https://gfsis.org.ge/maps/russian-military-forces https://gfsis.org.ge/maps/russian-military-forces
  - Zanfa 2y ago
    > Look at the geography. There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn. If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg. Closer to 90km. If it was 20, all ships to/from St Petersburg would have to pass through Estonian/Finnish territorial waters and we wouldn’t have questions around jurisdiction.
    - yread 2y ago
      it's 38km from Naissaar to first Finnish islands, and the international waters there are wider than they should thanks to all the wars that were fought over it.
  - nradov 2y ago
    Every large ship with an anchor has cable cutting capability, at least in shallow waters. They just drop anchor near the cable (locations of which are clearly marked on regular nautical charts) and then run the ship's engine to drag the anchor across the cable until it breaks. In terms of potential hybrid warfare targets, Kaliningrad looks soft. Many of the residents have little loyalty to Russia. A partial blockade combined with some sabotage and support of separatist organizations could accomplish a lot.
    - Animats 2y ago
      NATO is now patrolling that area, probably looking for that. Finland joined NATO in 2023, after seeing what Russia was doing in Ukraine. It's a narrow corridor to patrol. Small boats watching large ships can tell if an anchor is run out. An ordinary fish-finder sonar should be able to tell if a ship is dragging something. Finland has many small coast guard vessels, and a long history of pushing back against border incursions from Russia. The most recent incursion was [1]. "Since the beginning of August 2023, more than 1,300 third-country nationals have arrived in Finland from Russia without a visa. According to the authorities, it was clear that foreign authorities or other actors were facilitating instrumentalised migration. This phenomenon and the risk of its escalation posed a serious threat to national security and public order in Finland." Migrants who escaped Afghanistan, etc. and ended up in Russia are apparently being given a hard choice - join the army and fight in Ukraine, or leave Russia. So Finland closed the land border with Russia completely. Russia objected. Finland did not give in. Finland started building a border fence on the Russian border, with surveillance gear, back in 2023.[2] [1] https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/situation-at-finlands-eastern-border https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/situation-at-finlands-eastern-b... [2] https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/finland-starts-erecting-fence-along-russian-border/ https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/finland-starts-erec...
lawn 2y ago
Russia has been very clear about their goals. They want to reestablish the Soviet borders (and later to expand them). The only question is who will they invade first, and will they have capacity to do so?
- kombine 2y ago
  Russia proved incapable of invading all of Ukraine in 3 years. They do want all of former USSR but it is clearly impossible. And with that in mind, it is criminal and on the Western side to not provide Ukraine with enough military assistance to decisively defeat Russia. I don't know what West is doing, honestly.
  - mediumsmart 2y ago
    So true. In Germany alone are about 250000 Ukrainian men of fighting age eager to get back and crush the Russian invasion as soon as the west gives them some gear and a gun. How hard can it be?
    - gitaarik 2y ago
      Well, isn't it because there is threat for a nuclear war, and we should watch out the fight doesn't escalate?
      - plz_throw 2y ago
        Putin said this over and over again and no red line actually startet the nuclear war he threatened everyone with [1]. On the other hand, our reactions to crossing red lines are also nonexistent [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrai...
        roenxi 2y ago
        > Woodward writes that Biden's national security team at one point believed there was a real threat, a 50 per cent chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. ~ https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behind-the-scenes-conversations-of-biden-trump-harris-and-putin/7de56512-ad89-4039-81f7-102754fee09b https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behin... Hopefully they are exaggerating for effect. A strategy of actively probing for Russia's breaking point is ruinously stupid; when you find it the odds are pretty good that it will be because they are at the point where they are willing to go nuclear. They might try some sort of escalate-to-de-escalate strike on NATO but there must be a pretty decent chance that would just escalate and the Russian command would be aware of that. Not lobbing missiles in to Russia is an entirely reasonable red line. We got all the way through the Afghan war and the Iraq war without anyone launching missiles into the US and that restraint didn't seem to cause any long term problems. Extending similar courtesies to Russia is appropriate.
2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLAzeHnNgR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLAzeHnNgR8 McCain on Putin in 2014. They want Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and Moldova and the Baltics if they can get away with it. He is rebuilding the Russian Empire.

So Russia has it's signs now on seizing Estonia?

Arn_Thor 2y ago

Always did

Animats 2y ago
Russia annoying both Finland and Estonia may be unwise. Look at the geography. There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn. If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg. Or just slow things down by inspecting every ship for cable-cutting capability. NATO has already stepped up patrols in the Baltic Sea.[1] Right now, Russia doesn't have all that much military capability near St. Petersburg.[2] Some units are off at the Ukraine war. The Baltic Fleet is weaker than ever. There's a "Free Ingria" movement that wants to make all of Leningrad Oblast a separate country. It's not going anywhere without outside support. It might get some. [1] https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-cable-undersea-russia-sabotage-nato-6460b68ab5236d9892551867b024b0a0 https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-cable-undersea-ru... [2] https://gfsis.org.ge/maps/russian-military-forces https://gfsis.org.ge/maps/russian-military-forces
- Zanfa 2y ago
  > Look at the geography. There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn. If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg. Closer to 90km. If it was 20, all ships to/from St Petersburg would have to pass through Estonian/Finnish territorial waters and we wouldn’t have questions around jurisdiction.
  - yread 2y ago
    it's 38km from Naissaar to first Finnish islands, and the international waters there are wider than they should thanks to all the wars that were fought over it.
- nradov 2y ago
  Every large ship with an anchor has cable cutting capability, at least in shallow waters. They just drop anchor near the cable (locations of which are clearly marked on regular nautical charts) and then run the ship's engine to drag the anchor across the cable until it breaks. In terms of potential hybrid warfare targets, Kaliningrad looks soft. Many of the residents have little loyalty to Russia. A partial blockade combined with some sabotage and support of separatist organizations could accomplish a lot.
  - Animats 2y ago
    NATO is now patrolling that area, probably looking for that. Finland joined NATO in 2023, after seeing what Russia was doing in Ukraine. It's a narrow corridor to patrol. Small boats watching large ships can tell if an anchor is run out. An ordinary fish-finder sonar should be able to tell if a ship is dragging something. Finland has many small coast guard vessels, and a long history of pushing back against border incursions from Russia. The most recent incursion was [1]. "Since the beginning of August 2023, more than 1,300 third-country nationals have arrived in Finland from Russia without a visa. According to the authorities, it was clear that foreign authorities or other actors were facilitating instrumentalised migration. This phenomenon and the risk of its escalation posed a serious threat to national security and public order in Finland." Migrants who escaped Afghanistan, etc. and ended up in Russia are apparently being given a hard choice - join the army and fight in Ukraine, or leave Russia. So Finland closed the land border with Russia completely. Russia objected. Finland did not give in. Finland started building a border fence on the Russian border, with surveillance gear, back in 2023.[2] [1] https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/situation-at-finlands-eastern-border https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/situation-at-finlands-eastern-b... [2] https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/finland-starts-erecting-fence-along-russian-border/ https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/finland-starts-erec...

lawn 2y ago

Russia has been very clear about their goals. They want to reestablish the Soviet borders (and later to expand them). The only question is who will they invade first, and will they have capacity to do so?

kombine 2y ago
Russia proved incapable of invading all of Ukraine in 3 years. They do want all of former USSR but it is clearly impossible. And with that in mind, it is criminal and on the Western side to not provide Ukraine with enough military assistance to decisively defeat Russia. I don't know what West is doing, honestly.
- mediumsmart 2y ago
  So true. In Germany alone are about 250000 Ukrainian men of fighting age eager to get back and crush the Russian invasion as soon as the west gives them some gear and a gun. How hard can it be?
  - gitaarik 2y ago
    Well, isn't it because there is threat for a nuclear war, and we should watch out the fight doesn't escalate?
    - plz_throw 2y ago
      Putin said this over and over again and no red line actually startet the nuclear war he threatened everyone with [1]. On the other hand, our reactions to crossing red lines are also nonexistent [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrai...
      - roenxi 2y ago
        > Woodward writes that Biden's national security team at one point believed there was a real threat, a 50 per cent chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. ~ https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behind-the-scenes-conversations-of-biden-trump-harris-and-putin/7de56512-ad89-4039-81f7-102754fee09b https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behin... Hopefully they are exaggerating for effect. A strategy of actively probing for Russia's breaking point is ruinously stupid; when you find it the odds are pretty good that it will be because they are at the point where they are willing to go nuclear. They might try some sort of escalate-to-de-escalate strike on NATO but there must be a pretty decent chance that would just escalate and the Russian command would be aware of that. Not lobbing missiles in to Russia is an entirely reasonable red line. We got all the way through the Afghan war and the Iraq war without anyone launching missiles into the US and that restraint didn't seem to cause any long term problems. Extending similar courtesies to Russia is appropriate.

2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLAzeHnNgR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLAzeHnNgR8 McCain on Putin in 2014. They want Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and Moldova and the Baltics if they can get away with it. He is rebuilding the Russian Empire.