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But Ilya has convinced himself and many others that predicting the next token is intelligence.

swid 2y ago
It seems to me predicting things in general is a pretty good way to bootstrap intelligence. If you are competing for resources, predicting how to avoid danger and catch food is about the most basic way to reinforce good behavior.
- api 2y ago
  This would fall down into a semantic debate over what is meant by intelligence. There is a well known phenomenon known as the AI effect: when something works we start calling it something else, not AI. Heuristics and complex reasoning trees were once called AI. Fuzzy logic with control systems was once called AI. Clustering was once called AI. And so on… This certainly has one root in human or carbon-based life cheuvanism but I think there’s something essential happening too. With each innovation we see its limits and it causes us to go back and realize that what we colloquially call intelligence was more than we thought it was. Intelligence predicts, but is prediction intelligence? Again, here by intelligence I mean what complex living organisms and humans do. I still believe there are things going on here not modeled by any CS system and not well understood. Not magic, just not solved yet. We are reverse engineering billions of years of evolution folks. We won’t figure it all out in a few decades.
  - swid 2y ago
    Demonstrably, humans do think, and arguably demonstrably, early life would go down a path of simple predictions (in the form of stimulus -> response). And demonstrably, evolution did lead to human level intelligence. So I don’t think there needs to be a semantic debate over where in the process intelligence started. The early responses to stimulus is a form of prediction, but not one that requires thinking. There can be much disagreement that prediction is at the core of intelligence, or if optimizing ability to predict leads to intelligence. But from the established facts, it is the case the higher forms of life were bootstrapped from the lower ones, and also our biochemistry does have reward functions. Successfully triggering those rewards will generally hinge on making successful predictions. Take from that what you will.
    - api 2y ago
      Prediction is a huge part of what intelligence does. I was questioning “prediction maximalism.” Intelligence is also very good at pattern recognition. Did people once argue for pattern recognition maximalism? Biological (including human) intelligence is clearly multi-modal and I strongly believe there are aspects that are barely understood if at all. The history of CS and AI is a history of us learning how to make machines that are unbelievably good at some useful but strictly bounded subset of what intelligence can do: logic, math, pattern recognition, and now prediction. I think we may still be far from general intelligence and I’m not even sure we can define the problem.
dylan604 2y ago
I've convinced myself I'm a multi-millionaire, but all other evidence easily contradicts that. Some people put a bit too much into the "putting it out there" and "making your own reality"

swid 2y ago

It seems to me predicting things in general is a pretty good way to bootstrap intelligence. If you are competing for resources, predicting how to avoid danger and catch food is about the most basic way to reinforce good behavior.

api 2y ago
This would fall down into a semantic debate over what is meant by intelligence. There is a well known phenomenon known as the AI effect: when something works we start calling it something else, not AI. Heuristics and complex reasoning trees were once called AI. Fuzzy logic with control systems was once called AI. Clustering was once called AI. And so on… This certainly has one root in human or carbon-based life cheuvanism but I think there’s something essential happening too. With each innovation we see its limits and it causes us to go back and realize that what we colloquially call intelligence was more than we thought it was. Intelligence predicts, but is prediction intelligence? Again, here by intelligence I mean what complex living organisms and humans do. I still believe there are things going on here not modeled by any CS system and not well understood. Not magic, just not solved yet. We are reverse engineering billions of years of evolution folks. We won’t figure it all out in a few decades.
- swid 2y ago
  Demonstrably, humans do think, and arguably demonstrably, early life would go down a path of simple predictions (in the form of stimulus -> response). And demonstrably, evolution did lead to human level intelligence. So I don’t think there needs to be a semantic debate over where in the process intelligence started. The early responses to stimulus is a form of prediction, but not one that requires thinking. There can be much disagreement that prediction is at the core of intelligence, or if optimizing ability to predict leads to intelligence. But from the established facts, it is the case the higher forms of life were bootstrapped from the lower ones, and also our biochemistry does have reward functions. Successfully triggering those rewards will generally hinge on making successful predictions. Take from that what you will.
  - api 2y ago
    Prediction is a huge part of what intelligence does. I was questioning “prediction maximalism.” Intelligence is also very good at pattern recognition. Did people once argue for pattern recognition maximalism? Biological (including human) intelligence is clearly multi-modal and I strongly believe there are aspects that are barely understood if at all. The history of CS and AI is a history of us learning how to make machines that are unbelievably good at some useful but strictly bounded subset of what intelligence can do: logic, math, pattern recognition, and now prediction. I think we may still be far from general intelligence and I’m not even sure we can define the problem.

dylan604 2y ago

I've convinced myself I'm a multi-millionaire, but all other evidence easily contradicts that. Some people put a bit too much into the "putting it out there" and "making your own reality"