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This is odd. I'm from the area, near Grozny. If Grozny were under fog, there are at least 10 airports nearby (Makhachkala, Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Minvody, Rosto

by rodary 2y ago

This is odd. I'm from the area, near Grozny. If Grozny were under fog, there are at least 10 airports nearby (Makhachkala, Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, Minvody, Rostov, Krasnodar etc) in the North Caucasus. Why would you fly east, across the Caspian Sea, toward Kazakhstan?

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
appreciatorBus 2y ago
Obviously just speculation but if one was just fired upon, yet still in one piece and at least somewhat in control, a pilot might decide braving a longer diversion over a body of water to get away from the area, might be the safest course of action.
- dralley 2y ago
  Also if you have control issues and a forced depressurization it might be best to avoid obstructions (like the Caucasus mountains) and significant course adjustments. But from what I'm seeing the actual answer is that they were denied landing clearance, which is a bit suspicious.
quink 2y ago
If I was a pilot flying into an at-war country I’d want my alternate to point in a different direction, the exact opposite course of the war zone ideally. Which this pretty much is. And, to further that point, multiple airports you listed here are currently closed because of that war.
- TheGreatAIPurge 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - IAmGraydon 2y ago
    Anyone else notice an influx of these new accounts in the last couple of years that start rapidly spamming inflammatory replies that seem to be trying to incite arguments (look at this ^ account's comments in the last hour)? HN is a bastion of mostly western, intelligent discourse. I'm really starting to wonder - is it under attack?
    - refulgentis 2y ago
      I see this everywhere. IMHO that is because we've all found vice signaling is lower cost than expected
      - IAmGraydon 2y ago
        Vice signalizing? Intentionally displaying one's flaws/vices? I really don't think that's what this is. I think this is someone or a bot that is trying to get people to react with anger, in hopes that it catches on and causes wider arguments in the thread/social platform. It's very similar to what foreign influence/disinformation campaigns are doing in western societies, but targeted at online societies.
    - dralley 2y ago
      Has been for a while. Most articles critical of Russia end up getting flagged pretty quickly and also tend to get flooded with posts from accounts created 5 minutes prior.
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  Makhachkala has been taking international flights.
  - quink 2y ago
    I just checked the transcript I've seen floating out there, the first alternate was Baku, i.e. their departure airport. Then Mineralnye Vody (which is some way to the west), then Makhachkala, then they seemed to go far to the east, so while I think the first option was Baku - matching what I said, the list of options pretty quickly became 'anywhere'. What a harrowing flight.
    - quink 2y ago
      > The Grozny airport reportedly denied landing permission to the AZAL plane, and the aircraft was also refused permission to land at airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody. says media in Azerbaijan now as per https://report.az/en/incident/crashed-azal-plane-shot-down-by-russian-air-defense-media-reports-say/ https://report.az/en/incident/crashed-azal-plane-shot-down-b... There you go.
tiahura 2y ago
Mountains
goodcanadian 2y ago
Grozny was not under fog.
phire 2y ago
They reported a dual GPS failure. My guess, they picked an airport they knew well, that they could probably navigate to with nothing more than a compass and landmarks. And if they suspected GPS jamming (personally, a dual GPS failure over Russia would be my first guess) they would be biased towards an airport far away from an active war zone. I am curious why they didn't divert back to their departure airport at Baku. It's roughly the same distance and surely they knew that airport even better, and could just follow the coastline back. Maybe by the time they had the plane under control they were already much closer to Aktau.
Waterluvian 2y ago
Any time something makes no sense from this region of the world, there’s often a ridiculous Soviet style decision behind it. https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7hsw22g https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7...
ivan_gammel 2y ago
The entire region was the zone of active air defence and Vladikavkaz was surely not an option given the drone strike that damaged a shopping mall there. My only question here is why there were any civilian flights at the moment. They should have been diverted.
rasz 2y ago
https://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-aircraft-shot-down-by-russian-air-defence https://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-ai... "Kill and hide. Azerbaijani officials tell local media that Russia hit flight J2-8243 with an anti-aircraft missile and then jammed electronics and _denied permission to land in three airports, steering the damaged plane into the Caspian Sea so that it would crash there and Russia’s role would never be discovered_."

by rodary 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

appreciatorBus 2y ago

Obviously just speculation but if one was just fired upon, yet still in one piece and at least somewhat in control, a pilot might decide braving a longer diversion over a body of water to get away from the area, might be the safest course of action.

dralley 2y ago
Also if you have control issues and a forced depressurization it might be best to avoid obstructions (like the Caucasus mountains) and significant course adjustments. But from what I'm seeing the actual answer is that they were denied landing clearance, which is a bit suspicious.

quink 2y ago

If I was a pilot flying into an at-war country I’d want my alternate to point in a different direction, the exact opposite course of the war zone ideally. Which this pretty much is. And, to further that point, multiple airports you listed here are currently closed because of that war.

TheGreatAIPurge 2y ago
[flagged]
- IAmGraydon 2y ago
  Anyone else notice an influx of these new accounts in the last couple of years that start rapidly spamming inflammatory replies that seem to be trying to incite arguments (look at this ^ account's comments in the last hour)? HN is a bastion of mostly western, intelligent discourse. I'm really starting to wonder - is it under attack?
  - refulgentis 2y ago
    I see this everywhere. IMHO that is because we've all found vice signaling is lower cost than expected
    - IAmGraydon 2y ago
      Vice signalizing? Intentionally displaying one's flaws/vices? I really don't think that's what this is. I think this is someone or a bot that is trying to get people to react with anger, in hopes that it catches on and causes wider arguments in the thread/social platform. It's very similar to what foreign influence/disinformation campaigns are doing in western societies, but targeted at online societies.
  - dralley 2y ago
    Has been for a while. Most articles critical of Russia end up getting flagged pretty quickly and also tend to get flooded with posts from accounts created 5 minutes prior.
selimthegrim 2y ago
Makhachkala has been taking international flights.
- quink 2y ago
  I just checked the transcript I've seen floating out there, the first alternate was Baku, i.e. their departure airport. Then Mineralnye Vody (which is some way to the west), then Makhachkala, then they seemed to go far to the east, so while I think the first option was Baku - matching what I said, the list of options pretty quickly became 'anywhere'. What a harrowing flight.
  - quink 2y ago
    > The Grozny airport reportedly denied landing permission to the AZAL plane, and the aircraft was also refused permission to land at airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody. says media in Azerbaijan now as per https://report.az/en/incident/crashed-azal-plane-shot-down-by-russian-air-defense-media-reports-say/ https://report.az/en/incident/crashed-azal-plane-shot-down-b... There you go.

tiahura 2y ago

Mountains

goodcanadian 2y ago

Grozny was not under fog.

phire 2y ago

They reported a dual GPS failure. My guess, they picked an airport they knew well, that they could probably navigate to with nothing more than a compass and landmarks. And if they suspected GPS jamming (personally, a dual GPS failure over Russia would be my first guess) they would be biased towards an airport far away from an active war zone. I am curious why they didn't divert back to their departure airport at Baku. It's roughly the same distance and surely they knew that airport even better, and could just follow the coastline back. Maybe by the time they had the plane under control they were already much closer to Aktau.

Waterluvian 2y ago

Any time something makes no sense from this region of the world, there’s often a ridiculous Soviet style decision behind it. https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7hsw22g https://bsky.app/profile/dandrezner.bsky.social/post/3le7jr7...

ivan_gammel 2y ago

The entire region was the zone of active air defence and Vladikavkaz was surely not an option given the drone strike that damaged a shopping mall there. My only question here is why there were any civilian flights at the moment. They should have been diverted.

rasz 2y ago

https://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-aircraft-shot-down-by-russian-air-defence https://caliber.az/en/post/preliminary-investigation-azal-ai... "Kill and hide. Azerbaijani officials tell local media that Russia hit flight J2-8243 with an anti-aircraft missile and then jammed electronics and _denied permission to land in three airports, steering the damaged plane into the Caspian Sea so that it would crash there and Russia’s role would never be discovered_."