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You have to look at AGI not as an independent entity, but sort of an infinitely copiable mental slave for those that wield it. So, devs and big tech are headed

You have to look at AGI not as an independent entity, but sort of an infinitely copiable mental slave for those that wield it. So, devs and big tech are headed towards a future where the idea is to manipulate AGI systems to concentrate as much of the wealth as possible into their own pockets. The people that will be retained (not fired) are those that are the most useful in directing these hyperintelligent units. It will become an evolutionary war of systems whose only goal is growth and the consumption of more energy to train more advanced AIs. Make no mistake. By creating AI and nearing AGI, we have started a sort of runaway evolutionary phenomenon of new entities whose objective is to grow (obtain more hardware) and consume energy (train). Because AI amalgamated with humans will become so advanced, it will find new ways to generate energy and new ways to use existing energy (fossil fuels). The insights we will gain from it will be unprecedented and dangerous, and allow those with the most money to become scarily intelligent. In turn, this intelligence will be so advanced that it will warp and magnify the remaining human instinct of greed embedded within it to create a ruthless, runaway growth that will likely wipe out humanity due to its energy requirements. The only choice for devs will to either become lietuenants in directing this artificial army or rely on handouts. That is, if the system doesn't kill you first.

quantified 2y ago
It's not the devs in the sense of the coders, but more the senior managers and directors. I.e the Altmans and Nadellas. Software devs will be mid-tier just as today. Institutional and social media will become more sophisticated in shaping public opinion. It will be bolstering the political party or parties that support AI. Oligarchy will be more entrenched. There may be a superabundance of circuses in the form of AI-generated content, but not of bread, because of the profit motives elsewhere in the economy and the need for more energy to produce more things. I'm not convinced we'll make the energy, it will be some significant multiple of the energy devoted to the AI itself to have much impact. People will still work at least as much as they do today, except for a slightly enlarged plutocracy. If there are more people in the world, living standards will barely budge. For example, robots replacing doctors and surgeons completely will only happen if the profit generated by them is great, and if they are plentiful there will not be as much profit. So not really any greater availability of medical care, and fewer humans earning bread from medicine. There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan?
- vouaobrasil 2y ago
  > It's not the devs in the sense of the coders, but more the senior managers and directors. I.e the Altmans and Nadellas. Software devs will be mid-tier just as today. True, but devs will power the machine in return for insane rewards and because their intellectual curiosity will be partially manipulated. (Have you ever heard a company say, "this is where you can use your creativity to make a positive difference?" I have...) > Institutional and social media will become more sophisticated in shaping public opinion. It will be bolstering the political party or parties that support AI. Oligarchy will be more entrenched. 100% agreed. > I'm not convinced we'll make the energy, it will be some significant multiple of the energy devoted to the AI itself to have much impact. People will still work at least as much as they do today, except for a slightly enlarged plutocracy. I think we probably will. Energy use by tech has been going steadily up and why else is Microsoft looking to nuclear reaction for AI and other companies are investing in wind? > If there are more people in the world, living standards will barely budge. For example, robots replacing doctors and surgeons completely will only happen if the profit generated by them is great, and if they are plentiful there will not be as much profit. So not really any greater availability of medical care, and fewer humans earning bread from medicine. I think that's plausible, although remember that profit may start to be replaced by direct resource acquisition. If the entire supply chain is automated, money isn't required to obtain final products from that supply chain IF you're at the top. > There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan? That is a scary thought too.
- meiraleal 2y ago
  > There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan? I'm curious about what ways of using it will make a country outperform its peers that at some point all others need to copy, like capitalism hundreds of years ago.
  - 2y ago
jay_kyburz 2y ago
Fun thought experiment for a slow Christmas eve. Say somebody unlocks AGI, whats the first thing they ask it to do? They might ask it to develop a strategy and tools to make sure its the only AGI. They might hack, buy, or even physically destroy any competition. (This may be done covertly, or with a government mandate.) Then once you have the only AGI, you have to ask yourself what you really want. You have wealth, you have power, what are you going to do with it? Do you want to bring peace and happiness to the world? Impose your morals on everybody else? Do you want to fix the environment? Do you just want more and more and more until you own everything?

quantified 2y ago

It's not the devs in the sense of the coders, but more the senior managers and directors. I.e the Altmans and Nadellas. Software devs will be mid-tier just as today. Institutional and social media will become more sophisticated in shaping public opinion. It will be bolstering the political party or parties that support AI. Oligarchy will be more entrenched. There may be a superabundance of circuses in the form of AI-generated content, but not of bread, because of the profit motives elsewhere in the economy and the need for more energy to produce more things. I'm not convinced we'll make the energy, it will be some significant multiple of the energy devoted to the AI itself to have much impact. People will still work at least as much as they do today, except for a slightly enlarged plutocracy. If there are more people in the world, living standards will barely budge. For example, robots replacing doctors and surgeons completely will only happen if the profit generated by them is great, and if they are plentiful there will not be as much profit. So not really any greater availability of medical care, and fewer humans earning bread from medicine. There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan?

vouaobrasil 2y ago
> It's not the devs in the sense of the coders, but more the senior managers and directors. I.e the Altmans and Nadellas. Software devs will be mid-tier just as today. True, but devs will power the machine in return for insane rewards and because their intellectual curiosity will be partially manipulated. (Have you ever heard a company say, "this is where you can use your creativity to make a positive difference?" I have...) > Institutional and social media will become more sophisticated in shaping public opinion. It will be bolstering the political party or parties that support AI. Oligarchy will be more entrenched. 100% agreed. > I'm not convinced we'll make the energy, it will be some significant multiple of the energy devoted to the AI itself to have much impact. People will still work at least as much as they do today, except for a slightly enlarged plutocracy. I think we probably will. Energy use by tech has been going steadily up and why else is Microsoft looking to nuclear reaction for AI and other companies are investing in wind? > If there are more people in the world, living standards will barely budge. For example, robots replacing doctors and surgeons completely will only happen if the profit generated by them is great, and if they are plentiful there will not be as much profit. So not really any greater availability of medical care, and fewer humans earning bread from medicine. I think that's plausible, although remember that profit may start to be replaced by direct resource acquisition. If the entire supply chain is automated, money isn't required to obtain final products from that supply chain IF you're at the top. > There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan? That is a scary thought too.
meiraleal 2y ago
> There will be interesting culture clashes, because different places will apply it at different rates to different priorities. What do you think the real priorities will be for Saudi Arabia to adopt? How long would it take for Egypt to adopt, and for what purpose? Kazakhstan? Libya? Pakistan? I'm curious about what ways of using it will make a country outperform its peers that at some point all others need to copy, like capitalism hundreds of years ago.
- 2y ago

jay_kyburz 2y ago

Fun thought experiment for a slow Christmas eve. Say somebody unlocks AGI, whats the first thing they ask it to do? They might ask it to develop a strategy and tools to make sure its the only AGI. They might hack, buy, or even physically destroy any competition. (This may be done covertly, or with a government mandate.) Then once you have the only AGI, you have to ask yourself what you really want. You have wealth, you have power, what are you going to do with it? Do you want to bring peace and happiness to the world? Impose your morals on everybody else? Do you want to fix the environment? Do you just want more and more and more until you own everything?