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-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border.

-USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. -US grocery prices are higher than ever. -Pierre Poilievre is the new Prime Minister of Canada and holds a majority. -EVs continue to grow market share at a linear rate in North America.

kidneystereotyp 2y ago
[dead]
azurezyq 2y ago
- At the same time EV continues to grow faster everywhere else than NA. - US requires more percentage of EV components made domestically, making US the most expensive EV market. - US made EVs will retreat to NA markets only.
mongol 2y ago
Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.
- meiraleal 2y ago
  In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".
  - wiseowise 2y ago
    Ukraine won’t ever cede these territories. Whether on a field of battle, or diplomacy table, this war will continue for decades.
  - dsab 2y ago
    What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker
    - ben_w 2y ago
      Even as a native English speaker, I only understand the literal meaning, not how it (or the original) would apply here.
      - senorrib 2y ago
        This is an expression from the cold war, and roughly means "have you reached an agreement with your foe?" in a context that the foe is involved in the "solution" you're proposing. Something like that.
        sabbaticaldev 2y ago
        it’s more like imaginary scenarios still need to face field reality
    - gota 2y ago
      World cup 1958, Brazil National team coach explains a very convoluted and intricate tactical play for a goal in their match against Russia (then Soviet Union). A very famous player - Garrincha, arguably one of the greatest players of early football/soccer - listened to his explanation and asked "That's very cool and all, Mr. Feola. But have you checked with the Russians?" (In English I think 'did the Russians agree' may sound more idiomatic) [1] https://barrichelo.com.br/teoriadosjogos/list-trechosimprime.asp?id=77 https://barrichelo.com.br/teoriadosjogos/list-trechosimprime...
    - marcosdumay 2y ago
      It means that this is a decision Ukraine can't make all by themselves. It depends on what will happen to them as much as it depends on what they will decide. It also doesn't fit very well, because it's more intended to be used about cartoonish plans that expect other people to behave exactly as the plan predicts. I dunno why the GP got to it.
  - type0 2y ago
    Since it's about football you no longer have to "check with the Russians", they're banned from all major competitions. One major misnomer is referring to Soviet citizens as Russians, the majority of USSR population weren't Russians but other ethnicities. Wikipedia has a bunch of this history falsehoods specially when talking about Red Army brigades consisting entirely of other ethnic minorities and referring to them as Russians. Actually calling Canadians- Americans is more correct, at least it's technically correct which is best kind of correct.
Teever 2y ago
I wonder if the next CEO will be shot or taken down by drone. I think it's very likely that in 2025 we will see the first North American assassination by drone.
- Yoric 2y ago
  !remindme 1 year (oops, we're not on reddit) Very interesting prediction! I wouldn't be surprised.
- pjc50 2y ago
  Nah, has to be shooting. Guns are politically protected and the mass shooting is a traditional American ritual. They've not even discovered the primitive technology of the car bomb.
  - Fluorescence 2y ago
    So you're saying... gun drone?!
    - pjc50 2y ago
      There's a flamethrower drone video that circulates, used for clearing debris from power lines. And lots and lots of "DJI phantom with a grenade" videos from the Ukraine war. But not only does the gun drone not work very well, the drones are heavily tracked and dependent on radio links while there are thousands of people making sure that guns, even concealed ones, have a constitutional right to be in as many places as possible. Probably the only thing that could change American gun law is an outbreak of snipers against CEOs and politicians.
      - Fluorescence 2y ago
        > heavily tracked As in the flights or the hardware? I've always thought drones would work well as ambush devices i.e. don't make a long flight to a target but stash within a few seconds of flight time. If it's the hardware then is there not much of a DIY scene anymore? I assumed the tech was mostly in the components e.g. cameras/motors/batteries rather than the integration. I'm not a drone person but when I cast my eye at FPV racing drones, it seemed they were building their own with off-the-shelf components. > radio links I see Russia heavily using fibre-optic drones these days and they blew my mind. When I heard of "wire-guided missile" I assumed it was some term-of-art and never conceived they literally laid down wire. I understand you can buy kilometre spools of the stuff for a few bucks so I guess it's in consumer's reach. Ah, I've just realised the "Ariadne's thread" weakness of using fibre-optic for something covert! Maybe the launch site can hop to another connection though...
huijzer 2y ago
> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Russia spends about 20% of its GDP on the war. This is sort of in line with estimates from the second world war where numbers, from the top of my head, went up to 40% or higher. If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. Inflation in Russia is now at about 20% to 30% [1]. And the kicker is that the EU only has to spend about 2% to match Russia's numbers. Long-term it's just a losing proposition for Russia. Their economy is tanking while the rest of the West just gets stronger on an exponential rate. Even if the EU would spend twice as much as Russia, then that sounds perfectly sustainable for the EU.
- cm2187 2y ago
  That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. They are at their budget deficit limits and are all in territory where if they increase tax rates, tax proceeds go down (along with growth and employment). So the reality is that I don't think there is any chance the EU is a substitute for the US in term of ukraine support.
  - pjc50 2y ago
    The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed. Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight between self-defence and the deficit limit, they're just going to have to break the limit. Germany, on the other hand, has been very comfortable taking Russian bribes and gas, as well as being uncomfortable with re-arming, so they've been lagging behind on the project. Maybe there will be another "incident". France has already been reporting attempts of sabotage against their railway network.
netdevphoenix 2y ago
I agree with prediction 1. Why do you really think prediction 3 will happen?
pancakemouse 2y ago
Will there be any conflict between Musk's supposed eco-credentials and Trump's ambitions to destroy everything green?
- 3D30497420 2y ago
  It seems to me that Musk's eco-credentials have been long largely abandoned, assuming he every really had them to begin with. I get the sense that they were only ever useful to help sell cars and support his ego-trip (make him seem a "visionary"). None of his other projects are particularly eco-friendly (a tunnel, but just for cars, big rockets, autonomous cars rather than larger scale transit, etc.) I think the more likely reason Musk and Trump will fall-out of... whatever it is they have... is they both have huge egos and don't like sharing the spotlight.
  - Yoric 2y ago
    My feeling is that, while the rest of Big Tech is busy kissing Trump's ring at Mar-a-Lago, Musk is something between Trump's consigliere and Trump's owner. I also don't think that it's going to end well for them, but it might last a while. Also, Trump is pretty old, so it's entirely possible that he'll die before they have a falling out.
Yoric 2y ago
> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?
- nobrains 2y ago
  See this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 Reposting: This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.
  - Yoric 2y ago
    Fair enough, but this doesn't sound like a major correction, does it?
    - pjc50 2y ago
      70% is the end of the world for traditional stocks, not a "correction"!
      - rapsey 2y ago
        70% is not the end of the world for a single company stock. Plenty have done similar and come out on top (Apple, Meta, Carvana, Netflix, etc.). BTC market cap is lower than nVidia, Apple or MS. But that is not important, what it should really be compared to is gold and compared to that it is an upstart at current price levels. BTC has no utility other than being digital gold. Other crypto currencies have no utility either.
- lizzas 2y ago
  You need a constant supply of new bag holders, but miners need to be paid.
nobrains 2y ago
>> Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.
- fire_lake 2y ago
  Only 4 data points. There are meaningful differences this time around: Trump support of Bitcoin lobby and mainstream ETFs.
  - MuffinFlavored 2y ago
    If you assume that BTC's market cap increases 5x-10x per $1 in inflow it receives, if it does another $100b in inflows next year, it'll be between $120k-$130k
- throw0101d 2y ago
  > Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. A semi-joke-y observation about a monkey wrench that may be thrown into the mix: > The main argument for a Strategic BItcoin Reserve seems to be that Bitcoin holders worry about an impending shortage of greater fools and need the US government to act as the greatest fool of last resort. * https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1870564077535470079 https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1870564077535470079
lizzas 2y ago
Crypto correction on 21st Jan is my prediction.
dom96 2y ago
> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it was the "first", but there is nothing fundamental about it that cannot be replicated. Am I wrong?
- fph 2y ago
  Prediction: Musk will call it x-coin.
  - augusto-moura 2y ago
    Traded as a single X letter, to confuse people even more
- tremarley 2y ago
  Bitcoin has a proof of work based blockchain. The length and story of the chain is a unique experiment, unlikely to be replicated ever again in my opinion
  - dom96 2y ago
    The length and story of the chain bears no value
sgt 2y ago
Panama canal will be returned to the loving embrace of the USA
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

kidneystereotyp 2y ago

[dead]

azurezyq 2y ago

- At the same time EV continues to grow faster everywhere else than NA. - US requires more percentage of EV components made domestically, making US the most expensive EV market. - US made EVs will retreat to NA markets only.

mongol 2y ago

Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.

meiraleal 2y ago
In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".
- wiseowise 2y ago
  Ukraine won’t ever cede these territories. Whether on a field of battle, or diplomacy table, this war will continue for decades.
- dsab 2y ago
  What is the meaning of this term? I am not native english speaker
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Even as a native English speaker, I only understand the literal meaning, not how it (or the original) would apply here.
    - senorrib 2y ago
      This is an expression from the cold war, and roughly means "have you reached an agreement with your foe?" in a context that the foe is involved in the "solution" you're proposing. Something like that.
      - sabbaticaldev 2y ago
        it’s more like imaginary scenarios still need to face field reality
  - gota 2y ago
    World cup 1958, Brazil National team coach explains a very convoluted and intricate tactical play for a goal in their match against Russia (then Soviet Union). A very famous player - Garrincha, arguably one of the greatest players of early football/soccer - listened to his explanation and asked "That's very cool and all, Mr. Feola. But have you checked with the Russians?" (In English I think 'did the Russians agree' may sound more idiomatic) [1] https://barrichelo.com.br/teoriadosjogos/list-trechosimprime.asp?id=77 https://barrichelo.com.br/teoriadosjogos/list-trechosimprime...
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    It means that this is a decision Ukraine can't make all by themselves. It depends on what will happen to them as much as it depends on what they will decide. It also doesn't fit very well, because it's more intended to be used about cartoonish plans that expect other people to behave exactly as the plan predicts. I dunno why the GP got to it.
- type0 2y ago
  Since it's about football you no longer have to "check with the Russians", they're banned from all major competitions. One major misnomer is referring to Soviet citizens as Russians, the majority of USSR population weren't Russians but other ethnicities. Wikipedia has a bunch of this history falsehoods specially when talking about Red Army brigades consisting entirely of other ethnic minorities and referring to them as Russians. Actually calling Canadians- Americans is more correct, at least it's technically correct which is best kind of correct.

Teever 2y ago

I wonder if the next CEO will be shot or taken down by drone. I think it's very likely that in 2025 we will see the first North American assassination by drone.

Yoric 2y ago
!remindme 1 year (oops, we're not on reddit) Very interesting prediction! I wouldn't be surprised.
pjc50 2y ago
Nah, has to be shooting. Guns are politically protected and the mass shooting is a traditional American ritual. They've not even discovered the primitive technology of the car bomb.
- Fluorescence 2y ago
  So you're saying... gun drone?!
  - pjc50 2y ago
    There's a flamethrower drone video that circulates, used for clearing debris from power lines. And lots and lots of "DJI phantom with a grenade" videos from the Ukraine war. But not only does the gun drone not work very well, the drones are heavily tracked and dependent on radio links while there are thousands of people making sure that guns, even concealed ones, have a constitutional right to be in as many places as possible. Probably the only thing that could change American gun law is an outbreak of snipers against CEOs and politicians.
    - Fluorescence 2y ago
      > heavily tracked As in the flights or the hardware? I've always thought drones would work well as ambush devices i.e. don't make a long flight to a target but stash within a few seconds of flight time. If it's the hardware then is there not much of a DIY scene anymore? I assumed the tech was mostly in the components e.g. cameras/motors/batteries rather than the integration. I'm not a drone person but when I cast my eye at FPV racing drones, it seemed they were building their own with off-the-shelf components. > radio links I see Russia heavily using fibre-optic drones these days and they blew my mind. When I heard of "wire-guided missile" I assumed it was some term-of-art and never conceived they literally laid down wire. I understand you can buy kilometre spools of the stuff for a few bucks so I guess it's in consumer's reach. Ah, I've just realised the "Ariadne's thread" weakness of using fibre-optic for something covert! Maybe the launch site can hop to another connection though...

huijzer 2y ago

> USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. Some GDP numbers to put things in perspective (source: tradingeconomics.com). Ukraine: $0.2T Russia: $2T United States: $27T European Union: $18T So even if you drop the US, only the EU should be sufficient. Russia More specifically, I saw estimates that Russia spends about 20% of its GDP on the war. This is sort of in line with estimates from the second world war where numbers, from the top of my head, went up to 40% or higher. If 20% of your economy is busy throwing ordnance at someone else sounds pretty unsustainable, then you are probably right. Inflation in Russia is now at about 20% to 30% [1]. And the kicker is that the EU only has to spend about 2% to match Russia's numbers. Long-term it's just a losing proposition for Russia. Their economy is tanking while the rest of the West just gets stronger on an exponential rate. Even if the EU would spend twice as much as Russia, then that sounds perfectly sustainable for the EU.

cm2187 2y ago
That's true but apart from Poland, all large EU countries have anaemic weapon production and diverted all their military spending into social programs decades ago, which they cannot reverse. They are at their budget deficit limits and are all in territory where if they increase tax rates, tax proceeds go down (along with growth and employment). So the reality is that I don't think there is any chance the EU is a substitute for the US in term of ukraine support.
- pjc50 2y ago
  The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed. Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight between self-defence and the deficit limit, they're just going to have to break the limit. Germany, on the other hand, has been very comfortable taking Russian bribes and gas, as well as being uncomfortable with re-arming, so they've been lagging behind on the project. Maybe there will be another "incident". France has already been reporting attempts of sabotage against their railway network.

netdevphoenix 2y ago

I agree with prediction 1. Why do you really think prediction 3 will happen?

pancakemouse 2y ago

Will there be any conflict between Musk's supposed eco-credentials and Trump's ambitions to destroy everything green?

3D30497420 2y ago
It seems to me that Musk's eco-credentials have been long largely abandoned, assuming he every really had them to begin with. I get the sense that they were only ever useful to help sell cars and support his ego-trip (make him seem a "visionary"). None of his other projects are particularly eco-friendly (a tunnel, but just for cars, big rockets, autonomous cars rather than larger scale transit, etc.) I think the more likely reason Musk and Trump will fall-out of... whatever it is they have... is they both have huge egos and don't like sharing the spotlight.
- Yoric 2y ago
  My feeling is that, while the rest of Big Tech is busy kissing Trump's ring at Mar-a-Lago, Musk is something between Trump's consigliere and Trump's owner. I also don't think that it's going to end well for them, but it might last a while. Also, Trump is pretty old, so it's entirely possible that he'll die before they have a falling out.

Yoric 2y ago

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Eh, I was expecting the opposite, with people flocking it to bitcoin (or some other crypto) as a backup strategy in case of political/ecological instability. What makes you think that there will be a major correction?

nobrains 2y ago
See this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42493130 Reposting: This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.
- Yoric 2y ago
  Fair enough, but this doesn't sound like a major correction, does it?
  - pjc50 2y ago
    70% is the end of the world for traditional stocks, not a "correction"!
    - rapsey 2y ago
      70% is not the end of the world for a single company stock. Plenty have done similar and come out on top (Apple, Meta, Carvana, Netflix, etc.). BTC market cap is lower than nVidia, Apple or MS. But that is not important, what it should really be compared to is gold and compared to that it is an upstart at current price levels. BTC has no utility other than being digital gold. Other crypto currencies have no utility either.
lizzas 2y ago
You need a constant supply of new bag holders, but miners need to be paid.

nobrains 2y ago

>> Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. This is easy. Bitcoin reaches it's high between Jun and Oct. This is based on historical 4 year trends. Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. And yes, while past performance is not indicative of future performance, the bitcoin cycle has been following this, and when everyone expects this, it ends up happening by the virtue of everyone's expectation.

fire_lake 2y ago
Only 4 data points. There are meaningful differences this time around: Trump support of Bitcoin lobby and mainstream ETFs.
- MuffinFlavored 2y ago
  If you assume that BTC's market cap increases 5x-10x per $1 in inflow it receives, if it does another $100b in inflows next year, it'll be between $120k-$130k
throw0101d 2y ago
> Then falls. Falls around 70%. Again, this is based on historical trends. A semi-joke-y observation about a monkey wrench that may be thrown into the mix: > The main argument for a Strategic BItcoin Reserve seems to be that Bitcoin holders worry about an impending shortage of greater fools and need the US government to act as the greatest fool of last resort. * https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1870564077535470079 https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1870564077535470079

lizzas 2y ago

Crypto correction on 21st Jan is my prediction.

dom96 2y ago

> -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. Wild prediction from me: Trump creates a US coin, everyone realises that a large government can easily create an alt coin, with enough people buying it and selling Bitcoin because it has the US government's support. Bitcoin then loses significant value and possibly becomes worthless eventually. The value of Bitcoin is only there because it was the "first", but there is nothing fundamental about it that cannot be replicated. Am I wrong?

fph 2y ago
Prediction: Musk will call it x-coin.
- augusto-moura 2y ago
  Traded as a single X letter, to confuse people even more
tremarley 2y ago
Bitcoin has a proof of work based blockchain. The length and story of the chain is a unique experiment, unlikely to be replicated ever again in my opinion
- dom96 2y ago
  The length and story of the chain bears no value

sgt 2y ago

Panama canal will be returned to the loving embrace of the USA

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]