4 ms·

> More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0] If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative

> More of gen z are home owners than previous generations at that age[0] If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative, you’re gonna need to cite a better source than an outbrain-riddled webpage that tells me to “watch our video to find the lede we buried”. I’m not saying this isn’t true, but extraordinary claims require good sourcing and explanation.

kasey_junk 2y ago
Here is the underlying dataset https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-cps/d030.V11.0 https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-cps/d030.V11.0 Redfin did the analysis quoted https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023/ https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation...
- cj 2y ago
  > The homeownership rate for 26-year-old Gen Zers is 30%, below 31% for millennials at 26, 32.5% of Gen Xers at 26, and 35.6% of boomers at 26. Unless you're specifically 26 years old, I suppose? This analysis seems far from scientific and cherry picks data in strange ways.
  - lazyasciiart 2y ago
    The fall in genz ownership rates is also quite interesting: I guess they weren’t buying during the pandemic?
9rx 2y ago
> If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative What do you see as the prevailing narrative? The one I see is homeownership itself, which suggests that homeownership has been seen as being hotly desirable. I strongly suspect we wouldn't have a homeownership narrative to speak of if ownership was unwanted. When something becomes unusually desirable like homeownership has, it is not unexpected to see an uptick in participation around it; in this case owning a home. Much of the urban age has been marked with the majority of the population being renters. Everyone wanting to own a home with such furor is historically unusual. I expect homeownership has become so desirable as it has become seen as a way to build wealth. While, historically, housing only kept pace with inflation at best, real home values have risen by unfathomable amounts in the last decade or two. Which, again, attracts people willing to risk it all for a chance at some of that wealth opportunity. It would be unusual if said generational group had comparatively lower ownership rates given the "FOMO" aspect. People run away when prices are falling, not when they are rising. Given the market we've watched, the extraordinary claim would be that Gen-Z has lower ownership rates compared to previous generations at the same age.
- jasonkester 2y ago
  Well said. I remember making a spreadsheet in maybe 1995 laying out the math to compare the real costs and expected gains from buying vs. renting. It mathed out about even. I decided to go with renting instead of buying, with the logic that the S&P didn’t need me to buy it a new roof every 15 years or to work in its garden every weekend. It worked nicely too, growing the money that would otherwise have gone into mortgages and property tax, letting me take some of it out recently and buy a house with cash. I don’t see much of this attitude in my younger friends now. But living cheap and saving does actually work.
  - FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
    A 20% down mortgage is a 5x levered bet. Plus you can roll capital gains into new real estate. The S&P 500 cannot offer these advantages.
    - abduhl 2y ago
      With the proper mix of retirement accounts, options, and futures contracts it can. It can offer even more leverage if you want.
      - kasey_junk 2y ago
        The bigger win is the government subsidies and tax breaks. You need very little on hand cash to get a very low interest rate. Much lower than asset loans at equivalent levels of wealth.
        pitpatagain 2y ago
        There is little tax break for home ownership currently with the SALT cap + high standard deduction. You get some break if you have a large enough mortgage or high enough interest rate but it has been very nerfed.
        2y ago

kasey_junk 2y ago

Here is the underlying dataset https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-cps/d030.V11.0 https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-cps/d030.V11.0 Redfin did the analysis quoted https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023/ https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation...

cj 2y ago
> The homeownership rate for 26-year-old Gen Zers is 30%, below 31% for millennials at 26, 32.5% of Gen Xers at 26, and 35.6% of boomers at 26. Unless you're specifically 26 years old, I suppose? This analysis seems far from scientific and cherry picks data in strange ways.
- lazyasciiart 2y ago
  The fall in genz ownership rates is also quite interesting: I guess they weren’t buying during the pandemic?

9rx 2y ago

> If you’re going to make a claim this bold and this counter to the prevailing narrative What do you see as the prevailing narrative? The one I see is homeownership itself, which suggests that homeownership has been seen as being hotly desirable. I strongly suspect we wouldn't have a homeownership narrative to speak of if ownership was unwanted. When something becomes unusually desirable like homeownership has, it is not unexpected to see an uptick in participation around it; in this case owning a home. Much of the urban age has been marked with the majority of the population being renters. Everyone wanting to own a home with such furor is historically unusual. I expect homeownership has become so desirable as it has become seen as a way to build wealth. While, historically, housing only kept pace with inflation at best, real home values have risen by unfathomable amounts in the last decade or two. Which, again, attracts people willing to risk it all for a chance at some of that wealth opportunity. It would be unusual if said generational group had comparatively lower ownership rates given the "FOMO" aspect. People run away when prices are falling, not when they are rising. Given the market we've watched, the extraordinary claim would be that Gen-Z has lower ownership rates compared to previous generations at the same age.

jasonkester 2y ago
Well said. I remember making a spreadsheet in maybe 1995 laying out the math to compare the real costs and expected gains from buying vs. renting. It mathed out about even. I decided to go with renting instead of buying, with the logic that the S&P didn’t need me to buy it a new roof every 15 years or to work in its garden every weekend. It worked nicely too, growing the money that would otherwise have gone into mortgages and property tax, letting me take some of it out recently and buy a house with cash. I don’t see much of this attitude in my younger friends now. But living cheap and saving does actually work.
- FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
  A 20% down mortgage is a 5x levered bet. Plus you can roll capital gains into new real estate. The S&P 500 cannot offer these advantages.
  - abduhl 2y ago
    With the proper mix of retirement accounts, options, and futures contracts it can. It can offer even more leverage if you want.
    - kasey_junk 2y ago
      The bigger win is the government subsidies and tax breaks. You need very little on hand cash to get a very low interest rate. Much lower than asset loans at equivalent levels of wealth.
      - pitpatagain 2y ago
        There is little tax break for home ownership currently with the SALT cap + high standard deduction. You get some break if you have a large enough mortgage or high enough interest rate but it has been very nerfed.
        2y ago