4 ms·

>developed proper public transit infrastructure. No amount of public transport can accomodate the personal whims and demands of anyone let alone everyone. Even

>developed proper public transit infrastructure. No amount of public transport can accomodate the personal whims and demands of anyone let alone everyone. Even Japan, famous for its public transport infrastructure, still has a healthy population of drivers both in metro and rural areas.

rglullis 2y ago
Nice strawman. I am not saying to get rid of cars altogether. I am saying that it would be better (and cheaper) for everyone if we took all those resources being out into "autonomous vehicles" and developed public transit first. Reduce the amount of yearly trips that are done by car. Provide alternatives. The important thing about Japan or Europe is not "they don't have cars", but "people make 3-4x less trips by car compared with the alternative modes of transportation". If you want to have safer roads (in a way that doesn't give even more power to tech companies) the best way to do it is by simply reducing the amount of trips taken.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > if we took all those resources being out into "autonomous vehicles" and developed public transit first Waymo has raised about $11bn [1]. That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. These things aren't competing. To the extent we can compare them on capital efficiency, it's not a good look for American public transit. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/waymo-investment-robot-taxis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/waymo-investment... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-24/citylab-daily-how-a-nyc-subway-became-way-too-expensive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-24/cityla... [3] https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-21/high-speed-rail https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-21/high-spe...
  - AstralStorm 2y ago
    Try using a unit per person. It starts to look much less rosy for Waymo and also do not forget roads are still public infrastructure that has to be paid for and maintained. What, you think Waymo will be able to weasel out of road tax or drive without roads?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Try using a unit per person Not relevant when we’re comparing project costs. OP argued we should devote self-driving resources to public transit. I’m arguing that’s nonsense. > roads are still public infrastructure that has to be paid for and maintained Sure. But that isn’t a new funding commitment. Cancelling Waymo won’t reduce our road costs.
      - zahlman 2y ago
        >OP argued we should devote self-driving resources to public transit. Yes, because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) - which is measured per person per unit distance traveled. (I'm not OP, but nothing in this discussion is even remotely new for transit advocates like myself.)
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Not all miles travelled are equal. In value, urgency or desirability and thus price willing to be paid. Complaining about self driving cars is asinine. The scales are wrong. The problems are wrong. The places are wrong. > nothing in this discussion is even remotely new for transit advocates like myself I mean, exactly. We’re urbanising without commensurate increases in public transit. Deployment or use. Perhaps that hints at a change being in order.
        zahlman 2y ago
        >Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Last I checked, Waymo also operates exclusively in urban areas.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  - rglullis 2y ago
    You are starting to seem dishonest when you resort to outliers and present them as the baseline. > To the extent we can compare them on capital efficiency We can not. This logic is stupid. This logic will take you to the idea that the best thing to do is to get everyone a helicopter because helipads are cheap to build and it costs zero dollars to "build roads in the sky". Yeah, you are right. These things are not competing. Yes, you are also right that proper infrastructure (re)development in North America will take a lot more money than what Big Tech has invested in self-driving cars. The upsetting part is to see even supposedly smart people buying into the idea that American Exceptionalism is a real thing, and that you can keep holding on to the hope to find a shortcut away of your problems. Self-driving cars or not, the US is still going to be an expensive, inefficient country that can boast about its amazing economy, yet most people living there are at third-world country levels of development.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Self-driving cars or not, the US is still going to be an expensive, inefficient country that can boast about its amazing economy, yet most people living there are at third-world country levels of development For fuck’s sake, the world’s largest rail system and navigable waterways say hello. I’ve advocated for public transit. But it’s turning into zealotry when an $11bn project showing actual gains is turned into a soapbox for decrying a pet project.
      - rglullis 2y ago
        If Waymo/Google/Alphabet really cares about people's safety and this is nothing but a pet project where the amount raised ($11bn) in 15 years is ~3% of their whole revenue in 2023, they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures. Until then, the whole thing is nothing but a Trojan horse to let encroach themselves even more into another aspect of our lives. Also: > world’s largest rail system The world's largest freight rail system.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures You seem to just not like that this is done by Google. (Or by any private entity.) That is fine. I, like, hate this one restaurant in New York. But be honest about your motivations and check your biases. This isn’t self-driving cars vs public transit debate because there isn’t one. If Google were funding a leg of passenger rail I suspect you’d be similarly incensed. > world's largest freight rail system The world’s largest rail system, period. It’s also the largest freight rail system. But passenger and freight are types of rail systems.
  - zahlman 2y ago
    >That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less than $1b CAD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_4_Sheppard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_4_Sheppard). From what I can tell, costs in NYC are mainly a NYC problem.
    - kasey_junk 2y ago
      Chicago is extending an existing above ground train line along an existing freeway (no right of way issues, not a subway, etc) 5.6 miles. It’s four stops and a new rail yard. 3.6B. https://www.transitchicago.com/ctas-36-billion-red-line-extension-project-included-in-biden-harris-administration-recommendation-to-congress-for-federal-funding-support-in-2025-budget-request/ https://www.transitchicago.com/ctas-36-billion-red-line-exte... It may be an American problem but it’s certainly not just NYC. But of course most of Waymos market is American as well.
      - zahlman 2y ago
        Something may have changed more recently. The first stage of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line in Toronto looks like it will come in at around (converting currency and distances) 9B for 12 miles. Locals generally don't seem to think this represents a success. (Despite being light rail, about 2/3 of this first stage will run underground.) (The REM in Montreal - https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/projects/rem https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/projects/rem - is doing much better than that, despite going over budget and being delayed quite a bit.)
    - achatham 2y ago
      But the Bakersfield/Merced HSR line is an actual project, estimated at over $30B (it makes no sense independently but is part of LA-to-SF). You seem to be comparing an actual, private tech project to what you wished public transit looked like, not what it actually looks like. Public transit is awesome, but construction costs in the anglophone world are bananas (https://transitcosts.com/ https://transitcosts.com/).

rglullis 2y ago

Nice strawman. I am not saying to get rid of cars altogether. I am saying that it would be better (and cheaper) for everyone if we took all those resources being out into "autonomous vehicles" and developed public transit first. Reduce the amount of yearly trips that are done by car. Provide alternatives. The important thing about Japan or Europe is not "they don't have cars", but "people make 3-4x less trips by car compared with the alternative modes of transportation". If you want to have safer roads (in a way that doesn't give even more power to tech companies) the best way to do it is by simply reducing the amount of trips taken.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> if we took all those resources being out into "autonomous vehicles" and developed public transit first Waymo has raised about $11bn [1]. That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. These things aren't competing. To the extent we can compare them on capital efficiency, it's not a good look for American public transit. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/waymo-investment-robot-taxis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/waymo-investment... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-24/citylab-daily-how-a-nyc-subway-became-way-too-expensive https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-24/cityla... [3] https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-21/high-speed-rail https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-21/high-spe...
- AstralStorm 2y ago
  Try using a unit per person. It starts to look much less rosy for Waymo and also do not forget roads are still public infrastructure that has to be paid for and maintained. What, you think Waymo will be able to weasel out of road tax or drive without roads?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Try using a unit per person Not relevant when we’re comparing project costs. OP argued we should devote self-driving resources to public transit. I’m arguing that’s nonsense. > roads are still public infrastructure that has to be paid for and maintained Sure. But that isn’t a new funding commitment. Cancelling Waymo won’t reduce our road costs.
    - zahlman 2y ago
      >OP argued we should devote self-driving resources to public transit. Yes, because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) - which is measured per person per unit distance traveled. (I'm not OP, but nothing in this discussion is even remotely new for transit advocates like myself.)
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > because it would allow moving people more cost-effectively (among other things) Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Not all miles travelled are equal. In value, urgency or desirability and thus price willing to be paid. Complaining about self driving cars is asinine. The scales are wrong. The problems are wrong. The places are wrong. > nothing in this discussion is even remotely new for transit advocates like myself I mean, exactly. We’re urbanising without commensurate increases in public transit. Deployment or use. Perhaps that hints at a change being in order.
        zahlman 2y ago
        >Add last-mile and model for the real American population distribution. Not an imagined America where everyone lives on Manhattan. Last I checked, Waymo also operates exclusively in urban areas.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
- rglullis 2y ago
  You are starting to seem dishonest when you resort to outliers and present them as the baseline. > To the extent we can compare them on capital efficiency We can not. This logic is stupid. This logic will take you to the idea that the best thing to do is to get everyone a helicopter because helipads are cheap to build and it costs zero dollars to "build roads in the sky". Yeah, you are right. These things are not competing. Yes, you are also right that proper infrastructure (re)development in North America will take a lot more money than what Big Tech has invested in self-driving cars. The upsetting part is to see even supposedly smart people buying into the idea that American Exceptionalism is a real thing, and that you can keep holding on to the hope to find a shortcut away of your problems. Self-driving cars or not, the US is still going to be an expensive, inefficient country that can boast about its amazing economy, yet most people living there are at third-world country levels of development.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Self-driving cars or not, the US is still going to be an expensive, inefficient country that can boast about its amazing economy, yet most people living there are at third-world country levels of development For fuck’s sake, the world’s largest rail system and navigable waterways say hello. I’ve advocated for public transit. But it’s turning into zealotry when an $11bn project showing actual gains is turned into a soapbox for decrying a pet project.
    - rglullis 2y ago
      If Waymo/Google/Alphabet really cares about people's safety and this is nothing but a pet project where the amount raised ($11bn) in 15 years is ~3% of their whole revenue in 2023, they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures. Until then, the whole thing is nothing but a Trojan horse to let encroach themselves even more into another aspect of our lives. Also: > world’s largest rail system The world's largest freight rail system.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures You seem to just not like that this is done by Google. (Or by any private entity.) That is fine. I, like, hate this one restaurant in New York. But be honest about your motivations and check your biases. This isn’t self-driving cars vs public transit debate because there isn’t one. If Google were funding a leg of passenger rail I suspect you’d be similarly incensed. > world's largest freight rail system The world’s largest rail system, period. It’s also the largest freight rail system. But passenger and freight are types of rail systems.
- zahlman 2y ago
  >That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less than $1b CAD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_4_Sheppard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_4_Sheppard). From what I can tell, costs in NYC are mainly a NYC problem.
  - kasey_junk 2y ago
    Chicago is extending an existing above ground train line along an existing freeway (no right of way issues, not a subway, etc) 5.6 miles. It’s four stops and a new rail yard. 3.6B. https://www.transitchicago.com/ctas-36-billion-red-line-extension-project-included-in-biden-harris-administration-recommendation-to-congress-for-federal-funding-support-in-2025-budget-request/ https://www.transitchicago.com/ctas-36-billion-red-line-exte... It may be an American problem but it’s certainly not just NYC. But of course most of Waymos market is American as well.
    - zahlman 2y ago
      Something may have changed more recently. The first stage of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT line in Toronto looks like it will come in at around (converting currency and distances) 9B for 12 miles. Locals generally don't seem to think this represents a success. (Despite being light rail, about 2/3 of this first stage will run underground.) (The REM in Montreal - https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/projects/rem https://www.cdpqinfra.com/en/projects/rem - is doing much better than that, despite going over budget and being delayed quite a bit.)
  - achatham 2y ago
    But the Bakersfield/Merced HSR line is an actual project, estimated at over $30B (it makes no sense independently but is part of LA-to-SF). You seem to be comparing an actual, private tech project to what you wished public transit looked like, not what it actually looks like. Public transit is awesome, but construction costs in the anglophone world are bananas (https://transitcosts.com/ https://transitcosts.com/).