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I'm a software engineer with 7 years of experience. I've built products used by millions of users, I've built ML models and AI coding tools, and I've been usin

I'm a software engineer with 7 years of experience. I've built products used by millions of users, I've built ML models and AI coding tools, and I've been using AI to generate 70% of code that's shipped to production in the last few months. I do believe that we can replace a large percentage of software engineers with AI in the next 3 years (2025-2027). Also this 1 million dollar Kaggle competition on AI coding just launched: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/konwinski-prize https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/konwinski-prize

number6 2y ago
Also my gut feeling, that about 30% of the code I wrote need some kind of engineering skill and I love to reach these problems. Until I am there, there is just a huge amount of boilerplate and patterns to repeat.
ein0p 2y ago
I'm a principal SWE with 25 years of experience and I think software today is comically bad and way too hard to use. So I think we can get engineers to write better software with these tools. The talk of "replacement" is going to be premature until we get something remotely resembling AGI. Unless your problems are so simple that a monkey could solve them, AI of today and foreseeable future is not going to solve them end to end. At best it'll fill in the easy parts, which you probably don't want to do anyway. Write a test. Simple refactor. Bang out some simple script to pay down some engineering debt. I've yet to see a system that doesn't crap out in the very beginning on the real problems that I solve on a daily basis. I'm by no means a naysayer - I work in this field and use AI many times daily.
- paradite 2y ago
  Funny enough, now I write better code than I used to thanks to AI because of two reasons: - AI naturally writes AI code that is more organized and clean (proper abstraction, no messy code) - I've recognized that, for AI to write code on an existing codebase, the code has to be clean and organized and make sense, so I tend to do more refactoring to make sure AI can take over them and update them when needed.
  - 000ooo000 2y ago
    >Funny enough, now I write better code than I used to thanks to AI because of two reasons: I assume you also believe you'll be one of the developers AI doesn't replace.
    - paradite 2y ago
      I'm actively transitioning out of a "software engineer" role to be more open minded on how to coexist with AI while still contributing value. Prompt engineering, organizing code for AI agents to be more effective, guiding non-technical people to understand how to leverage AI, etc. I'm also building products myself and selling them myself.
  - ein0p 2y ago
    See, the thing is, to determine which abstractions are "right and proper" you _already need a software engineer_ who knows those kinds of things. Moreover, that engineer needs to ability to read that code, understand it, and plan its evolution over time. He/she also needs to be able to fix the bugs, because there will be bugs.
    - paradite 2y ago
      I think your main thesis is that "AI of today and foreseeable future is not going to solve them end to end." My belief is that we can't solve them today (agree with you), but we can solve them in foreseeable future (in 3 years). So it is really a matter of different beliefs. And I don't think we will be able to convince each other to switch belief. Let's just watch what happens?
      - mike_hearn 2y ago
        I'm with you 100% of the way on this one. Am coding with Claude 3.5 right now using Aider. The future is clear at this point. It won't get worse and there's still so much low hanging fruit. Expertise is still useful to guide it, but we're all product managers now.
m00x 2y ago
Ah the junior dev starry-eyed mindset. Doing web dev isn't the only thing in the world. AI will absolutely accelerate development, but we still need so much more modernization across all industries. We still have factories running on Windows NT with software made in the 80s. We have mines, lumberyards, farms, retail, parking, bio labs, etc. So many things need to be upgraded to the same standard as big tech is, but hasn't because it was too expensive. Much of this AI isn't great at. It's easy to just spit out a web page with reactJS that was done 10,000x times already by millions of devs, but it's not so easy to make sure your smelter doesn't overheat or go cold using 20,000 live sensors. New devs will have a harder time getting in, but they'll also have an easier time learning. Senior devs will be able to supervise much more. The industry will change, but it's far from over. If anything, it will grow massively and make other industries much more productive.
- paradite 2y ago
  I have to clarify that my statement don't apply to software engineers who are not working in tech companies or tech industries. I usually call them IT instead of tech. Wrote more in my blog post: https://16x.engineer/2022/08/23/it-vs-tech.html https://16x.engineer/2022/08/23/it-vs-tech.html I have no knowledge of other industries that software is not the primary product.
  - m00x 2y ago
    For most industries the tech isn't the primary product. Google sells ads, not tech Uber sells rides, not tech. Amazon sells a marketplace, not tech. Tesla sells cars, not tech. Tech is just the tool.
    - paradite 2y ago
      Yes. Those products you listed are not in tech industries by my definition as well. You are right. Google ads is in ad industry. Uber is in transport industry. Amazon is in electronic commerce industry. I'm glad that we understand that we are talking about different things.

number6 2y ago

Also my gut feeling, that about 30% of the code I wrote need some kind of engineering skill and I love to reach these problems. Until I am there, there is just a huge amount of boilerplate and patterns to repeat.

ein0p 2y ago

I'm a principal SWE with 25 years of experience and I think software today is comically bad and way too hard to use. So I think we can get engineers to write better software with these tools. The talk of "replacement" is going to be premature until we get something remotely resembling AGI. Unless your problems are so simple that a monkey could solve them, AI of today and foreseeable future is not going to solve them end to end. At best it'll fill in the easy parts, which you probably don't want to do anyway. Write a test. Simple refactor. Bang out some simple script to pay down some engineering debt. I've yet to see a system that doesn't crap out in the very beginning on the real problems that I solve on a daily basis. I'm by no means a naysayer - I work in this field and use AI many times daily.

paradite 2y ago
Funny enough, now I write better code than I used to thanks to AI because of two reasons: - AI naturally writes AI code that is more organized and clean (proper abstraction, no messy code) - I've recognized that, for AI to write code on an existing codebase, the code has to be clean and organized and make sense, so I tend to do more refactoring to make sure AI can take over them and update them when needed.
- 000ooo000 2y ago
  >Funny enough, now I write better code than I used to thanks to AI because of two reasons: I assume you also believe you'll be one of the developers AI doesn't replace.
  - paradite 2y ago
    I'm actively transitioning out of a "software engineer" role to be more open minded on how to coexist with AI while still contributing value. Prompt engineering, organizing code for AI agents to be more effective, guiding non-technical people to understand how to leverage AI, etc. I'm also building products myself and selling them myself.
- ein0p 2y ago
  See, the thing is, to determine which abstractions are "right and proper" you _already need a software engineer_ who knows those kinds of things. Moreover, that engineer needs to ability to read that code, understand it, and plan its evolution over time. He/she also needs to be able to fix the bugs, because there will be bugs.
  - paradite 2y ago
    I think your main thesis is that "AI of today and foreseeable future is not going to solve them end to end." My belief is that we can't solve them today (agree with you), but we can solve them in foreseeable future (in 3 years). So it is really a matter of different beliefs. And I don't think we will be able to convince each other to switch belief. Let's just watch what happens?
    - mike_hearn 2y ago
      I'm with you 100% of the way on this one. Am coding with Claude 3.5 right now using Aider. The future is clear at this point. It won't get worse and there's still so much low hanging fruit. Expertise is still useful to guide it, but we're all product managers now.

m00x 2y ago

Ah the junior dev starry-eyed mindset. Doing web dev isn't the only thing in the world. AI will absolutely accelerate development, but we still need so much more modernization across all industries. We still have factories running on Windows NT with software made in the 80s. We have mines, lumberyards, farms, retail, parking, bio labs, etc. So many things need to be upgraded to the same standard as big tech is, but hasn't because it was too expensive. Much of this AI isn't great at. It's easy to just spit out a web page with reactJS that was done 10,000x times already by millions of devs, but it's not so easy to make sure your smelter doesn't overheat or go cold using 20,000 live sensors. New devs will have a harder time getting in, but they'll also have an easier time learning. Senior devs will be able to supervise much more. The industry will change, but it's far from over. If anything, it will grow massively and make other industries much more productive.

paradite 2y ago
I have to clarify that my statement don't apply to software engineers who are not working in tech companies or tech industries. I usually call them IT instead of tech. Wrote more in my blog post: https://16x.engineer/2022/08/23/it-vs-tech.html https://16x.engineer/2022/08/23/it-vs-tech.html I have no knowledge of other industries that software is not the primary product.
- m00x 2y ago
  For most industries the tech isn't the primary product. Google sells ads, not tech Uber sells rides, not tech. Amazon sells a marketplace, not tech. Tesla sells cars, not tech. Tech is just the tool.
  - paradite 2y ago
    Yes. Those products you listed are not in tech industries by my definition as well. You are right. Google ads is in ad industry. Uber is in transport industry. Amazon is in electronic commerce industry. I'm glad that we understand that we are talking about different things.