4 ms·

I would have figured algorithmic trading bots got all the wins there before a human could.

thrw42A8N 2y ago
Humans can be much smarter than any algo trading bots. The algorithms for trading are really primitive price action stuff - not fundamental information about the business, products, customers...
- JustAndy 2y ago
  Wouldn't an LLM be able to do that kind of analysis?
  - thrw42A8N 2y ago
    A LLM all by itself? No, I really don't think so. From my personal trading history - I knew to invest into AMD when it was at $5 because I tried their products and am intimately familiar with computers. LLM won't be able to do that for a long time. But - it helps me.
Workaccount2 2y ago
The fastest way to see news for a binary event is the just watch the stock price of the underlying. For something like GDP numbers, the price moves within milliseconds of the print, before your browser can even refresh and minutes before the numbers even show up on twitter.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- lizzas 2y ago
  I am going to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity to start a newspaper :)
jachac 2y ago
Relatively defined events yes, i.e probably wouldn't try to click through FOMC (is number better/worse than FedWatch) but take something like BTC ETF getting approval: - you aren't sure where the announcement will come from first, i.e will it leak via journalist - there will be plenty of false announcements - the official SEC twitter account got hacked and posted it was approved (Phone number taken over, no 2FA enabled lolol) - there will be volatility around fake announcements as others are running bots - LLMs interpretation of "BTC ETF approved" vs "With BTC ETF approval" can cause you to start eating lot of transaction costs You can still (presently...) come out on top as a bag of meat. Is it worth the hours and cortisol vs half decent tech job? going to say entirely dependent on the scorecard afterwards and if you value doing something with actual purpose.

Humans can be much smarter than any algo trading bots. The algorithms for trading are really primitive price action stuff - not fundamental information about the business, products, customers...

JustAndy 2y ago
Wouldn't an LLM be able to do that kind of analysis?
- thrw42A8N 2y ago
  A LLM all by itself? No, I really don't think so. From my personal trading history - I knew to invest into AMD when it was at $5 because I tried their products and am intimately familiar with computers. LLM won't be able to do that for a long time. But - it helps me.

Workaccount2 2y ago

The fastest way to see news for a binary event is the just watch the stock price of the underlying. For something like GDP numbers, the price moves within milliseconds of the print, before your browser can even refresh and minutes before the numbers even show up on twitter.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
lizzas 2y ago
I am going to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity to start a newspaper :)

jachac 2y ago

Relatively defined events yes, i.e probably wouldn't try to click through FOMC (is number better/worse than FedWatch) but take something like BTC ETF getting approval: - you aren't sure where the announcement will come from first, i.e will it leak via journalist - there will be plenty of false announcements - the official SEC twitter account got hacked and posted it was approved (Phone number taken over, no 2FA enabled lolol) - there will be volatility around fake announcements as others are running bots - LLMs interpretation of "BTC ETF approved" vs "With BTC ETF approval" can cause you to start eating lot of transaction costs You can still (presently...) come out on top as a bag of meat. Is it worth the hours and cortisol vs half decent tech job? going to say entirely dependent on the scorecard afterwards and if you value doing something with actual purpose.