3 ms·

Of course bitcoin's price will grow to over 300k. It's either going to 0 (highly unlikely) or it's going to $millions/BTC

by npoc 2y ago

talldayo 2y ago
> It's either going to 0 (highly unlikely) There are multiple scenarios where Bitcoin becomes valueless, especially if people continue building on L2 chains instead of working systems. 1. Difficulty spiral where miners protest due to [Taiwan crisis/compute sanctions/Moore's Law dying, etc.] that causes miners to protest resulting in ballistic TX fees and latency. 2. Complexity spiral where the ledger becomes too large even if compute keeps up, necessitating special aid to keep the ledger moving even when it's unprofitable and excessively wasteful to do so. 3. Proof of work is imperfect and miners are already incentivized to conglomerate around cheap energy. If an adversary like China figured out the 51% attack, nobody could save their investments from going to zero. 4. Fraud and crime already jeopardize Bitcoin's legitimate applications, and if it continues the Justice system will inevitably be forced to regulate it or even outright ban it to protect consumers. Bitcoin relies on a variety of cooperating elements on the social layer that have changed significantly since it's creation. People that earnestly believe society will change to suit Bitcoin rather than the other way around need to actually read the Bitcoin whitepaper and come to terms with how it failed today. It's going to zero, and it's been heading there since ~2013 if you're being honest with yourself.
- chii 2y ago
  > it's been heading there since ~2013 that's empirically not true.
- latchkey 2y ago
  1. That won't happen because of the economics of mining and the marketplace nature of TX fees. If it isn't profitable, they shut down and difficulty adjusts. We're already 15 years into this as one of the most studied and highest price tag codebases, and people are still worried about these things. 2. Storage and compute will scale to support the ledger and there can be software optimizations. 3. ETH would take over, it has more utility anyway. If you're so worried about BTC going to zero, the smart thing would be to hedge on ETH. 4. Not with this new admin and if they are successful, clearly going to last more than 4 years. Pointing at the social consensus is interesting and time will always tell, but I'm willing to take that risk. The classic snarky response is "if you're so sure, then short it."
  - talldayo 2y ago
    > If it isn't profitable, they shut down and difficulty adjusts. If the number of minable coins is fixed that doesn't sound like a perpetually appealing solution. People worry about it because it's still a problem, and you can't update things to fix it. > Storage and compute will scale to support the ledger and there can be software optimizations. Storage and compute are both pushed to their limits in terms of bandwidth today, it's not unheard of to find mining facilities that keep the entire ledger in-memory. A lot of the "easy" optimizations (eg. ASICs) as well as hacky ones (eg. CUDA implimentations) have already been exploited to middling success. I'll believe better optimization once I see it. > ETH would take over, it has more utility anyway. You know what has more utility than ETH? USD. This sort of "oh you need Xcoin to do Y" is exactly why all cryptocurrency is seen as the parasitic equivalent of sketchy credit card deals. Bitcoin isn't entirely bad, but if we start fighting each other over liquidity and utility then it's already lost compared to fiat. Once you factor in how much of an ass-pain self-custody and L1 txs are, you might as well not hold Bitcoin at all. > Not with this new admin My brother in Christ you are talking about an administration headed by a man convicted of 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. You need proof, not guesswork. Given that we are talking about a guilty criminal conspirator and accessory to fraud, I think it's hilarious that you're so willing to write off criminal intent. > The classic snarky response is "if you're so sure, then short it." I do short it - I sold my ETH, Chainlink and Bitcoin years ago. I fend off braindead extended family members accosting me during holiday dinner telling me I'm stupid for selling my crypto. I spend time with friends that mock me for selling my diamond hands and insist I need to buy $TSLA or I'll die poor. Now I read comments from insecure HODLers stumbling in off X, desperate to rub their gospel on anyone that didn't fall for it the first time around. The biggest loss I've incurred thus far was the life-hours I've spent entertaining this nonsense like it's a real-life MMO. The immaturity doesn't bother me - it's the deliberate myopia spread by defenders of cryptocurrency that assume the Bitcoin whitepapers still apply as-written in 2024. Today is a very different world and Bitcoin in particular is rather vulnerable in it. And even zooming out, truth is crypto is dying. It's not one of those things that's even political if you just look at it objectively. Bitcoin itself is on life support and can't be used without a third-party iron lung like Lightning. Ethereum can barely reach consensus on anything and embarrasses itself in it's indecision and by letting Vitalik Buterin run his big fat mouth. The Cambrian explosion of shitcoins decided that memecoins are the most profitable (lmfao) and converged on a suicidal meta for the innovation of crypto. Today's cryptocurrency scene is more stagnant than it was in 2014 despite having more users, which is a horribly alarming sign for anyone holding crypto to sell while the demand still exists. If you've held crypto for more than 6 months, you know that the whole "dApp" promise is a literal scam invented to create demand when none existed. The solution hasn't found a relevant problem to solve. So investors speculate, and hope for the future of the chain is outsourced to morons.
- npoc 2y ago
  1. Txn fees are completely unrelated to miner activity. They are simply demand vs supply (7/sec). 2. The ledger grows at a rate that's lower than the value decrease of storage. Effect increases over time.. 3. Miners are incentivized to not collect around cheap sources of energy. As more collect, the energy becomes more expensive due to supply and demand and mining becomes unprofitable. So miners are geographically repelled from each other. 4. Bitcoins primary application is as a savings technology (not sure what crime and fraud you're talking about) and is not regulatable, nor does it need to be. The T&Cs are defined in code. How on earth have you rationalised bitcoin going to 0 since 2013? And that it is failing? Sounds like a twisted cope mechanism to protect your ego - you couldn't be more wrong if you tried. What Satoshi envisioned for bitcoin and the way that might happen is simply that - a vision, an idea - and has no effect on how the free market uses bitcoin. He could have thought it would be used to keep track of ships in the sea - it makes no difference.

Of course bitcoin's price will grow to over 300k. It's either going to 0 (highly unlikely) or it's going to $millions/BTC

by npoc 2y ago

Of course bitcoin's price will grow to over 300k. It's either going to 0 (highly unlikely) or it's going to $millions/BTC

talldayo 2y ago

> It's either going to 0 (highly unlikely) There are multiple scenarios where Bitcoin becomes valueless, especially if people continue building on L2 chains instead of working systems. 1. Difficulty spiral where miners protest due to [Taiwan crisis/compute sanctions/Moore's Law dying, etc.] that causes miners to protest resulting in ballistic TX fees and latency. 2. Complexity spiral where the ledger becomes too large even if compute keeps up, necessitating special aid to keep the ledger moving even when it's unprofitable and excessively wasteful to do so. 3. Proof of work is imperfect and miners are already incentivized to conglomerate around cheap energy. If an adversary like China figured out the 51% attack, nobody could save their investments from going to zero. 4. Fraud and crime already jeopardize Bitcoin's legitimate applications, and if it continues the Justice system will inevitably be forced to regulate it or even outright ban it to protect consumers. Bitcoin relies on a variety of cooperating elements on the social layer that have changed significantly since it's creation. People that earnestly believe society will change to suit Bitcoin rather than the other way around need to actually read the Bitcoin whitepaper and come to terms with how it failed today. It's going to zero, and it's been heading there since ~2013 if you're being honest with yourself.

chii 2y ago
> it's been heading there since ~2013 that's empirically not true.
latchkey 2y ago
1. That won't happen because of the economics of mining and the marketplace nature of TX fees. If it isn't profitable, they shut down and difficulty adjusts. We're already 15 years into this as one of the most studied and highest price tag codebases, and people are still worried about these things. 2. Storage and compute will scale to support the ledger and there can be software optimizations. 3. ETH would take over, it has more utility anyway. If you're so worried about BTC going to zero, the smart thing would be to hedge on ETH. 4. Not with this new admin and if they are successful, clearly going to last more than 4 years. Pointing at the social consensus is interesting and time will always tell, but I'm willing to take that risk. The classic snarky response is "if you're so sure, then short it."
- talldayo 2y ago
  > If it isn't profitable, they shut down and difficulty adjusts. If the number of minable coins is fixed that doesn't sound like a perpetually appealing solution. People worry about it because it's still a problem, and you can't update things to fix it. > Storage and compute will scale to support the ledger and there can be software optimizations. Storage and compute are both pushed to their limits in terms of bandwidth today, it's not unheard of to find mining facilities that keep the entire ledger in-memory. A lot of the "easy" optimizations (eg. ASICs) as well as hacky ones (eg. CUDA implimentations) have already been exploited to middling success. I'll believe better optimization once I see it. > ETH would take over, it has more utility anyway. You know what has more utility than ETH? USD. This sort of "oh you need Xcoin to do Y" is exactly why all cryptocurrency is seen as the parasitic equivalent of sketchy credit card deals. Bitcoin isn't entirely bad, but if we start fighting each other over liquidity and utility then it's already lost compared to fiat. Once you factor in how much of an ass-pain self-custody and L1 txs are, you might as well not hold Bitcoin at all. > Not with this new admin My brother in Christ you are talking about an administration headed by a man convicted of 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. You need proof, not guesswork. Given that we are talking about a guilty criminal conspirator and accessory to fraud, I think it's hilarious that you're so willing to write off criminal intent. > The classic snarky response is "if you're so sure, then short it." I do short it - I sold my ETH, Chainlink and Bitcoin years ago. I fend off braindead extended family members accosting me during holiday dinner telling me I'm stupid for selling my crypto. I spend time with friends that mock me for selling my diamond hands and insist I need to buy $TSLA or I'll die poor. Now I read comments from insecure HODLers stumbling in off X, desperate to rub their gospel on anyone that didn't fall for it the first time around. The biggest loss I've incurred thus far was the life-hours I've spent entertaining this nonsense like it's a real-life MMO. The immaturity doesn't bother me - it's the deliberate myopia spread by defenders of cryptocurrency that assume the Bitcoin whitepapers still apply as-written in 2024. Today is a very different world and Bitcoin in particular is rather vulnerable in it. And even zooming out, truth is crypto is dying. It's not one of those things that's even political if you just look at it objectively. Bitcoin itself is on life support and can't be used without a third-party iron lung like Lightning. Ethereum can barely reach consensus on anything and embarrasses itself in it's indecision and by letting Vitalik Buterin run his big fat mouth. The Cambrian explosion of shitcoins decided that memecoins are the most profitable (lmfao) and converged on a suicidal meta for the innovation of crypto. Today's cryptocurrency scene is more stagnant than it was in 2014 despite having more users, which is a horribly alarming sign for anyone holding crypto to sell while the demand still exists. If you've held crypto for more than 6 months, you know that the whole "dApp" promise is a literal scam invented to create demand when none existed. The solution hasn't found a relevant problem to solve. So investors speculate, and hope for the future of the chain is outsourced to morons.
npoc 2y ago
1. Txn fees are completely unrelated to miner activity. They are simply demand vs supply (7/sec). 2. The ledger grows at a rate that's lower than the value decrease of storage. Effect increases over time.. 3. Miners are incentivized to not collect around cheap sources of energy. As more collect, the energy becomes more expensive due to supply and demand and mining becomes unprofitable. So miners are geographically repelled from each other. 4. Bitcoins primary application is as a savings technology (not sure what crime and fraud you're talking about) and is not regulatable, nor does it need to be. The T&Cs are defined in code. How on earth have you rationalised bitcoin going to 0 since 2013? And that it is failing? Sounds like a twisted cope mechanism to protect your ego - you couldn't be more wrong if you tried. What Satoshi envisioned for bitcoin and the way that might happen is simply that - a vision, an idea - and has no effect on how the free market uses bitcoin. He could have thought it would be used to keep track of ships in the sea - it makes no difference.