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> Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if we let superintelligence take control) As opposed to the predictable future we've had for the past few decades?
by AceJohnny2 2y ago
> Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if we let superintelligence take control)
As opposed to the predictable future we've had for the past few decades?
- riwsky 2y agoTo be fair, Ilya seems to have called the previous one pretty well!
- nopinsight 2y agoI think it's a matter of magnitude and semantics. It was quite predictable that the Internet would take off, become ubiquitous, and highly influential. If superintelligence emerges soon, we may not even know which technologies will emerge and how many will be unleashed in the next 2 decades. ADDED: Examples of some concrete predictions: (1980) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book) (1995) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Ahead_(Gates_book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Ahead_(Gates_book) Obviously, specifics differ from predictions and plenty of people got it wrong. Many good forecasters got the broad strokes right though. Which forecasters can even predict most technologies that would be invented after ASI emerges?
- adrianN 2y agoPlenty of people predicted that the Internet was just a fad.
- someothherguyy 2y agoWouldn't base economics dictate that, not ASI? A state can have knowledge of how to do things, how things work, hypothetical implementations, etc. However, if a state lacks the resources, skill, or desire to actually confirm and implement those hypothetical technologies, would they just stagnate? There might be a bottleneck there?
- nopinsight 2y agoResources will surely impact near-term possibilities. The space of possibilities is probably large enough that, given time, ASI can get around most limitations if it has the desire/goal to implement them.
- sdenton4 2y agoWell, that's wishful thinking at best... There's a lot of things that we know how to fix, but cannot. It's with thinking through why that is, and whether it's any different for a 'superintelligence.'
- nopinsight 2y ago> There's a lot of things that we know how to fix, but cannot. This assumes that humanity would remain in control after ASI emerges. We might not.
- jb1991 2y agoHindsight.
- unit149 2y ago"What is behind a dynamic super-intelligent tiling manager implemented in auto-regressive LSTM pre-training models?" Suggestive pathways, he replied.