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> no obvious large-scale product-market fit I mean, I know pessimistically "ackshually"-ing yourself into the wrong side of history is kind of Hackernews's thi

> no obvious large-scale product-market fit I mean, I know pessimistically "ackshually"-ing yourself into the wrong side of history is kind of Hackernews's thing (eg. that famous dropbox comment). But if you don't think OpenAI found product-market-fit with ChatGPT, then I don't think you understand what product-market-fit is...

snowwrestler 2y ago
It’s popular but not making money. So maybe product-audience fit so far.
dkrich 2y ago
That’s because it sparked a virtuous feedback loop at a time when it just so happens people’s credulity levels are off the charts. The creators of AI tools have a benefit in hyping it, as do software vendors as do hardware companies as do hyper scalers as does meta as does musk as do systems integrators like Accenture and on and on. I think OP is saying despite all that there is little evidence that end users are actually paying significant sums of money to use it. To this point it’s a great marketing tool for companies that are all eager to be viewed as innovative and you have lots of very wealthy smart people with clout like Bezos and Zuckerberg talking it up. Like any good bubble you have to have at the core a real asset. So of course there are people who use it daily as many anecdotes here in the comments point out. It’s a genuinely interesting and useful technology. That doesn’t mean though that it’s going to result in AGI or become profitable while liquidity conditions are still easy. I promise you Mark Zuckerberg would be singing a very different tune regarding chip investment if he were having to compete with bonds yielding 6-7%+.
WickyNilliams 2y ago
There is no killer app (yet). Chat is nice and there's various tools that are useful to devs. But broadly, there is no killer app that makes _everyone_ adopt it and gladly pay for it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killer_application https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killer_application
- pembrook 2y ago
  Yea same with Google. I mean search is nice. But broadly there’s no killer app that makes _everyone_ gladly pay for it. Jury is still out on whether they’ll be able to subsidize those massive server costs of indexing the entire web.
  - foldr 2y ago
    The cost to Google per search is way lower, though.
    - WickyNilliams 2y ago
      Plus they actually make money from it!
  - WickyNilliams 2y ago
    Let's ignore that Google is wildly profitable, their product was so good they immediately captured the entire market and have held the dominant position for decades, and that search was beyond "nice"... You offer some counter example, but do not address my actual point - there is no killer app.
- famouswaffles 2y ago
  There's no app that has been adopted faster than ChatGPT. Today, just 2 years off launch, it's one of the top ten most visited sites in the world. And they had some ~10M paid users a few months ago, nearly quadruple what they had the same time last year. How is ChatGPT not a killer app ?
- bdangubic 2y ago
  ChatGPT is the killer app… one of the killest apps in the history of mankind by any measure you want to use :)

snowwrestler 2y ago

It’s popular but not making money. So maybe product-audience fit so far.

dkrich 2y ago

That’s because it sparked a virtuous feedback loop at a time when it just so happens people’s credulity levels are off the charts. The creators of AI tools have a benefit in hyping it, as do software vendors as do hardware companies as do hyper scalers as does meta as does musk as do systems integrators like Accenture and on and on. I think OP is saying despite all that there is little evidence that end users are actually paying significant sums of money to use it. To this point it’s a great marketing tool for companies that are all eager to be viewed as innovative and you have lots of very wealthy smart people with clout like Bezos and Zuckerberg talking it up. Like any good bubble you have to have at the core a real asset. So of course there are people who use it daily as many anecdotes here in the comments point out. It’s a genuinely interesting and useful technology. That doesn’t mean though that it’s going to result in AGI or become profitable while liquidity conditions are still easy. I promise you Mark Zuckerberg would be singing a very different tune regarding chip investment if he were having to compete with bonds yielding 6-7%+.

WickyNilliams 2y ago

There is no killer app (yet). Chat is nice and there's various tools that are useful to devs. But broadly, there is no killer app that makes _everyone_ adopt it and gladly pay for it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killer_application https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killer_application

pembrook 2y ago
Yea same with Google. I mean search is nice. But broadly there’s no killer app that makes _everyone_ gladly pay for it. Jury is still out on whether they’ll be able to subsidize those massive server costs of indexing the entire web.
- foldr 2y ago
  The cost to Google per search is way lower, though.
  - WickyNilliams 2y ago
    Plus they actually make money from it!
- WickyNilliams 2y ago
  Let's ignore that Google is wildly profitable, their product was so good they immediately captured the entire market and have held the dominant position for decades, and that search was beyond "nice"... You offer some counter example, but do not address my actual point - there is no killer app.
famouswaffles 2y ago
There's no app that has been adopted faster than ChatGPT. Today, just 2 years off launch, it's one of the top ten most visited sites in the world. And they had some ~10M paid users a few months ago, nearly quadruple what they had the same time last year. How is ChatGPT not a killer app ?
bdangubic 2y ago
ChatGPT is the killer app… one of the killest apps in the history of mankind by any measure you want to use :)