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There's a little cautionary story I like to tell about predictions and probabilities There is a man living near a volcano. He has put up a sign outside his hou
by Terr_ 2y ago
There's a little cautionary story I like to tell about predictions and probabilities
There is a man living near a volcano. He has put up a sign outside his house for travelers, proudly declaring: "Will not erupt today. Accuracy: 100%."
One night, after thirty years of this, the volcano erupts for a few hours at night, oozing magma on its opposite side.
The next morning, the man is grateful that his house is fine, but feels a pang of sadness as he replaces the famous sign with a new one: "Will not erupt today. Accuracy rate: 99.99%."
- nojs 2y agoAlternatively if he predicted the probability of eruption every day as 0.01%, he’d be a perfect forecaster!
- benhurmarcel 2y agohttps://xkcd.com/937/ https://xkcd.com/937/
- lqet 2y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUF3Of0S3tE&t=37s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUF3Of0S3tE&t=37s
- taneq 2y agohttps://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/ https://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/